Burgeoning Balkans

 

Burgeoning Balkans

TODAY'S COLUMNIST
By Nikola Gruevski
July 4, 2006 
     
    The good news from the Balkans is that the wars which have plagued the region for the past 15 years appear to be finished. The bad news is that there is still unfinished business at hand which, if not handled properly, could lead to more troubles.
    Kosovo is still an open question. While the outcome is important, how final status negotiations are handled is just as important. With the decision by Montenegro to become independent now finalized, our friends in Serbia must be treated with dignity, respect and, above all, fairness to avoid a backlash. Those who are guiding this process must also take into consideration neighbors to Kosovo and Serbia and how the final outcome -- whatever it may be -- will affect them.
    Other issues are also on the table that affect the internal stability and politics of each country in the region. Tomorrow, Macedonians will go to the polls to elect a new parliament and a new government. This will be the fourth time in our young history as a modern-day nation-state that we will elect those who will govern us for the next four years. There is much at stake in these elections.
    Membership in the European Union is something Macedonia still strives for, as is NATO membership. While we strongly believe that NATO membership for us, along with our friends in Croatia and Albania, is just a few years away, membership in the European Union is further off. The EU, however, must accept all countries in the Balkans who aspire to EU membership -- assuming we fulfill our commitments -- to avoid having a black hole in Europe.
    But the most important question as we go to the polls now is a question of basic economics and trust. The current government led by the Social Democrats has been acting more and more like the party they once were -- the Communists. As a result, the economy is suffering and along with it, so are the people. At the same time, Macedonia has seen levels of trust in the government plummet to new lows. People trust the government about as much as they trust that gas prices will go down.
    This is why our party, if elected with our coalition partners, has promised a new direction. We believe that Macedonians want to do more than just survive -- they want to succeed. And to succeed we need a stronger, healthier economy -- one that delivers jobs and growth, that frees individuals to pursue their God-given potential with a minimum of government interference and that opens up the creative spirit in people.
    When my party, VMRO-DPMNE, was in government from 1998 to 2002, we saw the economy steamroll forward. In our first three years in office, we brought in more than $650 million in foreign direct investment. By comparison, the current government brought in a less-than-stellar $295 million in its first three years. (In contrast, next-door neighbor Bulgaria attracted over $1.4 billion in FDI during 2004 alone, while Macedonia has brought in $1.3 billion since gaining independence in 1991.)
    In its Index of Economic Freedom for 2006, the Heritage Foundation, quoting an EBRD report, notes that FDI "is at a low level as many foreign investors continue to be deterred by a difficult investment climate" and that "FDI has dried up since then because of... continued weaknesses in the business environment." The blame for this lies squarely with the government.
    At the same time, GDP has not advanced as it should. We need growth rates of 6 percent to 8 percent per year to achieve our dream of EU membership by 2010. The current government has given Macedonians rates of 0.9 percent in 2002, 3.4 percent in 2003, 4.1 percent in 2004 and estimates of 3.2 percent for 2005. These are hardly inspiring numbers.
    The current government was elected on promises of bringing higher rates of economic growth, increased employment, more FDI and increased salaries for the people. Instead, they have brought the opposite and with it contempt from the voters who believe the government has betrayed them.
    As Heritage points out, there is a key correlation between economic freedom and democracy. If a country is rich, or least economically stable and moving toward becoming a rich country, then it is more than likely to be stable and peaceful internally and with its neighbors. Our new government will provide the economic growth which the current government has failed to deliver thereby providing greater stability and peace in a region which has experienced little of either.
    
    Nikola Gruevski is president of the Macedonia party VMRO-DPMNE. He has served as trade minister (1998-99) and finance minister (2000-02).
http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20060703-102601-4840r.htm

Russia delays West's date for Kosovo independence

 

Russia delays West's date for Kosovo independence

PRISTINA, Serbia, July 3 (Reuters) - Russia is frustrating the West's plan for Kosovo independence this year, resisting U.S. pressure and raising a risk of fresh Albanian violence in the breakaway Serbian province, senior Western officials say.

Seven years after NATO bombing drove out Serb forces and the United Nations took control, the United States and the European Union say a decision on Kosovo's "final status" is overdue and should be made in the next six months.

Ethnic Albanians who form 90 percent of Kosovo's 2 million people want independence. Dipomats expect they will get it, in a form limited for a time by EU supervision and secured by NATO, to continue protecting minority Serbs from possible attacks. But Moscow -- partner of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and the U.S. in the Contact Group on Kosovo -- is in no hurry. Its view reflects concern in some EU capitals that a sudden amputation of Kosovo, on top of other recent Serb humiliations, could put Serb ultra-nationalists back in power in Belgrade.

Differences came sharply into focus in the past few days.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, in Brussels on Friday as envoys met, said Washington was "confirmed in our judgment that 2006 must be the year of decision for Kosovo ... the final status talks must conclude this year".

But a senior Russian official told Reuters on Sunday that Moscow saw no need for an "artificial timeframe". Russia stood by the Contact Group's Jan. 30 statement which made clear that "all efforts" should be made for a 2006 settlement, but it "does not say that by all means this has to be over", he said.

"We need to find solution to many so-called technical issues related to the position of minorities in Kosovo," the Russian said. If talks produce "mutually acceptable and sustainable results" a timetable can be set, but now is "too early to prejudge" whether the process will be completed this year.

"The Russians' focus now is on timing," said a senior Western official in Kosovo. "This is where the Contact Group will find things could become difficult."

SHOCK WAVES

Others say delay is too risky. Even if independence heads off a risk of renewed Albanian unrest, the U.N. has contingency plans in case of an exodus of half the remaining 100,000 Serbs, and NATO is braced for a Serb bid to partition the province.

While Serbia officially opposes independence, diplomats say it knows the West has made up its mind. Yet there is no sign of the "mutually acceptable" deal that Moscow wants to see.

A political source in Belgrade says Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica wants a delay to April 2007 and a face-saving formula giving Kosovo wide autonomy, years before sovereignty.

If not, ultanationalists already riding high in the polls could come to power, arguing that if Kosovo gets independence then so should the Serbs of Bosnia. A Serb secession from Bosnia would have dramatic consequences in the still turbulent Balkans.

The Albanians expect U.N. special envoy Martti Ahtisaari to make his recommendation to the Security Council by November and to give them the green light for independence. But it is the Council, where Russia has a veto, that must finally decide.

The Russian official said Serbia has a lot on its plate, citing its recent split with longtime sister republic Montenegro which chose independence, and the freeze on its EU membership bid over its failure to net top war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic.

Asked about fears of violence by Albanian extremists if they sense any delay in independence, the Russian said: "We don't like to be blackmailed. If any party resorts to violence it will be very detrimental to that party in negotiations."

One Western official who now predicts a delay says any stalling longer than three or four months means trouble.

Albanians impatient over life in limbo rioted in March 2004, killing 19 people and driving out 2,000 Serbs. Belgrade said it proved Kosovo was nowhere near stability or democracy, and it would redouble the argument if violence erupted again.

Meanwhile, Serbs in north Kosovo threaten to secede in the case of independence, a move that could reignite conflict next door with the Albanians of southern Serbia and Macedonia.

After Serbia lost control of Kosovo in 1999, when NATO bombed for 11 weeks to halt the killing of Albanians in a two-year guerrilla war, it was only with EU diplomacy that a smaller insurgency was smothered in south Serbia, while Macedonia got Western help in 2001 to stifle ethnic war.

There is concern that ethnic tensions are being kept in check only by the prospect of independence for Kosovo.

"If the light goes out ... by February or March, this will be an impossible mission to manage," said the Western official.

 

http://kosovareport.blogspot.com/2006/07/russia-delays-wests-date-for-kosovo.html