Serbia, Kosovo, the US and the UN

http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/55684

AMERICAN CHRONICLE (USA)

Serbia, Kosovo, the US and the UN
Dr. George Voskopoulos

March 18, 2008

The recent crisis in Kosovo has taken by surprise only those who are not
aware of the problems south-eastern Europe has faced in the post-Cold War
era. It should be ana-lyzed on different levels with a view to providing
answers to specific questions refer-ring to statehood, stability and the
United Nations system.

First, the unilateral declaration of independence on the part of a Serbian
province, whose vast majority is populated by ethnic Albanians, sets the
dilemma originally set in the early post-Cold War era of setting priorities
between stability and human rights. It is obvious here that priority was
given to human rights although recent history has shown that any solution
that does not support territorial stability is destined either to fail or
produce undesired side-effects such as the revolt of ethnic Serbs in
northern Kosovo.

Once again it is obvious that out-of-system interference by powerful actors
has trig-gered reactions and threatens stability and peace in the region.
Kosovo has been an historic symbol for Serbs ever since the Ottoman era
consequently territorial changes could not be accepted by ethnic Serbs. The
violation of human rights in the region during the Milosevic era provided
the desired by separatists, nationalists and former warlords ground for
establishing an independent statelet that lacks basic sustainability
criteria such as a democratic system of governance, lack of the rule of law
and a par-liamentary system that will allow Serbs to express themselves.

The issue here refers to what this new state can add to the Balkan conundrum
and what our expectations are from its leadership. First current Albanian
leaders in Kos-ovo were part of the belligerents that caused turmoil in the
region. It was the Ameri-can government that had labeled them terrorists in
the recent past. A drastic change of mood led to a second evaluation and
offered them support in becoming the acknowl-edged leaders of a state,
epicenter of a number of illegal activities in the region namely drugs,
weapons and human trafficking. Second, the solutions could not be ac-cepted
by Belgrade because Serbs were not offered substantial carrots.

On the contrary, the country was territorially mutilated without receiving
an alterna-tive. To those who have studied the region and lived there it is
obvious that a weak Serbia, a wish materialized in sequences by foreign
interference, is not a step towards stability and intra-Balkan cooperation.
It leads Serbia to total isolation, assists nation-alism, deprives it of
incentives to cooperate with the world community and drives it to political
instability. Belgrade holds the key to regional stability and peace in
south-eastern Europe and this was evident in the 1990s crises. It triggers
once again dreams of greatness and territorial expansionism on the part of
nationalists. These could be used by any powerful intruding actor who would
decide to reactive south-east Euro-pean tectonic plates.

Finally, the decision to support a unilateral declaration of independence
overlays the normative, regulatory role of the UN, a policy supported by
those who envisage a post-UN world order based on power. Eventually it was
the very same policy many condemned when they reacted to S. Milosevic regime
and its tactics. In the future the decision may activate pockets of
instability, although naïveté suggests that it is a sui generis case.

The Balkans once again has become the battleground of great power
competition. Russia is moving in using its energy policy and its traditional
ties with the Slavs, while the US is reacting by turning it into a NATO
fortress.

The only sustainable solution is to advance a human right regime delinking
human rights from territorial issues and border changes. The long
inaugurated effort to weaken Serbia and turn it into a minor player in the
region has jeopardized efforts to stabilize the Balkans and incorporate
Belgrade into the euro-Atlantic core.
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Kosovo: Worst still to come

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=18772

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND SECURITY NETWORK (SWITZERLAND)

Kosovo: Worst still to come

As Serbia tries to prove that Kosovo Albanians and Serbs cannot live
together, the Kosovo Serbs embark on a peaceful boycott, but an incident in
Mitrovica leaves one UN policeman dead and hundreds injured, Anes Alic and
Igor Jovanovic report for ISN Security Watch.

By Anes Alic and Igor Jovanovic for ISN Security Watch (18/03/08)

Rioting in the divided town of Kosovo Mitrovica has left one Ukrainian UN
policeman dead after suffering fatal injuries in clashes with Serb
protesters following a Kosovo Serb attempt to take over a court house in the
city.

In Kosovo, it is not at all difficult to foment unrest and create
atmospheric incidents to prove that the two groups cannot live in harmony.
It is in the interest of Serbian authorities to show to the world that
Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs cannot coexist peacefully; while it is now
in the interest of Kosovo Albanian authorities to prove the opposite.

The most recent incident in the northern city of Kosovska Mitrovica, divided
by Serbs and Albanians, illustrates these points well.

More than 100 Serb employees of the local court, including judges, entered
the court building last Friday after three weeks of peaceful protests,
demanding to be returned to their offices.

They had been driven out of their offices in August 1999 and replaced by
international staff and ethnic Albanians who had quit their jobs during the
rule of Slobodan Milosevic. The Serbs have continued to work within the
Serbian Justice Ministry system, but from their private homes and premises.
The international community in Kosovo had earlier announced that this
parallel judicial system was soon to be suspended.

The government of Kosovo demanded that the United Nations Mission in Kosovo
(UNMIK) evict the "hooligans" from the court. UNMIK turned to the Serbian
government to restore order, calling on Belgrade not to "interfere in Serb
areas of the new state." Serbian authorities in Belgrade have denied any
involvement in the incident.

The siege of the court reached its climax on Monday when some 100 UN police
troops stormed the court and retook control from the Kosovo Serbs.

The action triggered mass protests by the Serbs, during which at least two
UN vehicles were set on fire and police used tear gas to disperse the crowd.

According to media in Belgrade, at least 70 Kosovo Serbs were injured in the
process. International sources say at least 30 UN and NATO troops sustained
injuries.

The UN police backed by NATO troops were forced to withdraw from Serb areas
of Mitrovica after being attacked by demonstrators while a UN convoy was
transporting some 50 detained protesters from the court.

International troops were also injured in an explosion, thought to have been
caused by a hand grenade. Machine gun fire was later heard.

Action plan
In December 2007, two months prior to Kosovo's declaration of independence,
the Serbian government adopted an action plan that was to be put in place
after Kosovo authorities announced the province's secession. One of key
notes from the plan was the strengthening of links with Serbs living in the
northern Kosovo enclaves by taking back the authority they lost there in
1999.

The action plan was labeled a state secret, hence its details were never
revealed in public. Now, however, it is certain that a portion of the plan
referred to the strengthening of Serbia's institutions in Kosovo, especially
in the north where the most compact Serb enclaves are located. This area is
physically close to Serbia and is home to some 40,000 of the remaining
120,000 Serbs in Kosovo.

But Serbia is seeking only the de facto partitioning of Kosovo: After all,
should it win an official partition of northern Kosovo, it would lose
approximately 80,000 Serbs who live south of the Ibar River, practically
surrounded by Albanians.

If Serbia agreed to the partitioning of Kosovo, it would mean abandoning
those people, along with numerous important churches and monasteries south
of the Ibar. As such, Belgrade will fortify its position in northern Kosovo
and as much as possible in the enclaves south of the Ibar.

In the meantime, and perhaps with this in mind, reports say that hundreds of
Kosovo Serb families from those south Ibar enclaves have begun selling their
homes and settling in northern Kosovo and in Serbia proper.

Unconfirmed reports from ethnic Albanian sources claim that Kosovo Serb
paramilitary groups have been using scare tactics to force Kosovo Serbs in
the south to relocate to the north to make partitioning feasible.

Tricky transfer
Since Kosovo declared unilateral independence on 18 February, Serbia has
advocated taking control of the Serb enclaves in the province, which have
been under UNMIK protection since 1999 and are not set to be transferred to
the new independent Kosovo institutions.

Serbia is calling for the implementation of UN Resolution 1244, which it
believes guarantees the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The
Kosovo Serbs still hold authority in health care, local self-government and
energy in these enclaves.

Milan Ivanovic, head of the Serb National Council of northern Kosovo, the
most powerful Kosovo Serb organization, told ISN Security Watch that the
Serbian government should have started taking over authority in the north
much sooner.

"That is the only option, because the Serbs from northern Kosovo and south
of the Ibar River do not want to accept the institutions run by the
Albanians on behalf of the phantom and false state of Kosovo," Ivanovic
said.

Commenting on the potentially negative reaction from the Kosovo Albanians to
the Serbs' initiative, Ivanovic said that at the moment one should not worry
too much about potentially causing violence, but should insist on firmly
advocating the necessity of the Serbian state's presence in Kosovo.

"The Albanians have been very convincing before the international community
with the policy of threats and violence, unlike the servile official Serbian
policy, which had even before the unilateral declaration of independence
made it clear that our response would be peaceful, and that we would defend
our integrity and sovereignty only with diplomatic means," Ivanovic said.

However, Momcilo Trajkovic, leader of the Serb Resistance Movement, which
comprises the Serbs living south of the Ibar River and in the enclaves, is
dissatisfied with the Serbian government's moves regarding the takeover of
institutions.

"It is difficult to assess the government's tactics, as few people are
familiar with the details of the action plan. Such activities might lead to
the partitioning of Kosovo, but they might also be linked to positioning in
the north, aimed at better control of the situation in the territory south
of the Ibar," Trajkovic says.

He also said that a policy favoring the division of the province would be
ill-advised because 65 percent of the remaining Serbs are located south of
the Ibar River and partitioning would expose them to Albanian attacks.

"Partitioning would be disastrous for Serbs living in enclaves. The essence
of our battle is not in northern Kosovo, but south of the Ibar. That is
where our historical monuments are, the symbols of our statehood and
culture, but I fear that the government wants Serbia to stretch from
Subotica [in the north] to Kosovska Mitrovica [also in the north] in the
future," he said.

Trajkovic also criticized Belgrade's decision to give 80 percent of the
financial aid meant for all of Kosovo's Serbs to representatives in the
north, without consulting enclave leaders.

The internal boycott
So far, Kosovo Serbs have taken several major steps that indicate what their
future tactics will be.

It seems they are nearly unanimous in boycotting Kosovo institutions, saying
that life under ethnic Albanian rule is impossible.

Some 300 Serb policemen in the Kosovo Police Service (KPS) refused to take
orders from their superiors and are demanding that they remain part of the
UNMIK police chain of command, as they did before Kosovo's declaration of
independence. They were then suspended and handed in their weapons and
uniforms peacefully.

There are about 800 Serbs in the KPS, some 10 percent of the overall
service, which is in proportion with the population of Kosovo; around 400
Serb policemen in the north have remained under UNMIK command, and therefore
are not rebelling; some 50 people have taken sick leave or vacations, hence
they are still officially members of the KPS; and some 100 workers at the
Lipljan prison are demanding that Serbia resolve their status because or
they will quit their jobs.

In another case, the Serbian railway company, Zeleznice Srbije, tried to
take over the railroad in northern Kosovo in early March. That part of the
railroad, on the Lesak-Zvecan route, is very important because it links
northern Kosovo with the Serb enclaves in the central part of the province.

Despite attacks on trains in the past, this is believed to be the safest
means of transport for the Kosovo Serbs inside Kosovo and to Serbia proper.
Since UNMIK has dismissed Belgrade's attempt, the railroad has been
inoperative.

"If no agreement is reached with UNMIK, an impasse will occur, which will
neither allow UNMIK to start organizing traffic by force, because it lacks
the manpower, nor the Serbian railway company to operate," Zeleznice Srbije
General Manager Milanko Sarancic recently told Belgrade media.

Even Serb members of Kosovo parliament and government are boycotting those
institutions. Prior to the declaration of independence, there were 10 Serb
members of parliament and two in the government, the constitutionally
guaranteed seats for them, even though Kosovo Serbs boycotted the elections.
All of them froze their mandates after the 18 February declaration of
independence.

However, all Kosovo Serbs employed in Kosovo's public services, such as
municipalities, schools and the health-care system, are being delegated and
paid by Serbian government, and their salaries are double those of their
colleagues in Serbia proper.

Rough ride for EU
Belgrade is fighting its battle on another front by refusing to acknowledge
the European mission (EULEX), and pledging its cooperation only to UNMIK,
which arrived in Kosovo in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1244.

Following the official example, Kosovo Serb civilians are also cooperating
only with UNMIK and KFOR, and not with the EU mission (which has not been
positioned in northern Kosovo) or the Pristina institutions.

The EU is putting tremendous pressure on UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to
mark the end of UNMIK's mission and invite EULEX to take over. However, the
secretary-general is also facing an intense drive from Russia and other
countries that have sided with Belgrade, which leaves UNMIK on the field.

Last week, the EU admitted that the takeover of authority would require more
than the initially planned 120 days. Some members of the EU even think it
would be wise for UNMIK to remain in the Serb enclaves.

"The situation is still volatile, particularly north of the river Ibar, in
northern Kosovo," the chairman of the EU Council of Ministers Dimitrij Rupel
told a press conference at the end of the meetings of the Council of
Ministers in Brussels last week.

Rupel said UNMIK should take control of a border between Serbia and Kosovo.
The Slovenian foreign minister admitted that the planned transition between
UNMIK and EULEX would take longer and will require more effort.

Peter Feith, the international civilian representative in Kosovo, says that
his mission is not coming to Kosovo to establish a NATO state, adding that
it is politically impossible to admit a mistake and go back to the previous
state of affairs.

In a 12 March interview for the Serbian Vecernje Novosti daily, Feith said
his first impression after coming to Kosovo was "it could have been worse,"
adding that the worst was perhaps still to come.

The EU envoy went on to say that the EU mission would attempt to be as
"invisible" as possible, adding that it was necessary for the Kosovo cabinet
to assume power. In addition, he stressed that if Pristina tried to endanger
the Serb community in Kosovo, he would not hesitate to use his powers, even
if that meant dismissing and banning the violators of the rules.

Anes Alic, based in Sarajevo, is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent
in Southeastern Europe and the Executive Director of ISA Consulting.

Igor Jovanovic is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Serbia and
Kosovo. He is based in Belgrade.