Kosovo: False calm before the real storm?
By M. Bozinovich
In the immediate aftermath of the successful referendum in Serbia on its new constitution, the EU foreign Minister Javier Solana congratulated Belgrade on referendum's orderly conduct and suggested that it is an important step in aligning Serbian legal structure with that of the European Union whose membership Serbia covets. In Washington, likewise, there was an approval of the referendum, while both, the EU and US stressed that the Kosovo status process must go on and Serbia is obligated to accept the results of the negotiating process.
Solana's and Washington's favorable reaction to the Serbian constitutional referendum was immediately objected by Albania, Kosovo Albanians and the International Crisis Group.
Albania blasted the Serbian constitutional referendum as "unacceptable" because it complicates the diplomatic negotiation on Kosovo at a time when, presumably, the UN Security Council is suppose to vote on amputating Kosovo from Serbia, and Serbia, finally got itself a constitution that major powers recognize and will have to consider what it says for any decision making process.
Albanian President Alfred Moisiu then raised the specter of violence with a claim that in case the Serbian referendum complicated the decision on Kosovo and precludes its independence then such "postponement of the decision on the final status of Kosovo will activate the extremist forces in the two countries." The countries Moisiu was referring to that will turn violent and extremist is Albania and Kosovo.
Kosovo Albanians dutifully dismissed the referendum as "not deserving a comment" so that by keeping their silence, Kosovo Albanians endorsed Moisiu's threat of violence and thus escalated their hostility against Serbia with whom Kosovo shares the longest border in case it ever becomes independent.
The International Crisis Group, however, sought to produce, at least some, civilized evidence for this forlorn dud and join the ethnic Albanian political body in malevolent attacks of spite on the Serbian state. In it's media release titled Serbia's Constitutional Referendum: A Question Of Validity, the Group sought to delegitimize Serbian referendum by making claims that it has witnesses that saw mass voter fraud although the only authoritativeness of that press release may be the appearance of a colon in the title that imitates serious analysis.
So says the Group: "Witnesses and videotape evidence indicate that many voters were permitted not only to vote without providing photographic identification," writes the Group and adds that "entire referendum process was deliberately skewed in advance by the authorities."
That ethnic Albanian political leadership is, indeed, seriously upset by the Western endorsement of the new Serbian constitution was expressed by ICG’s Belgrade director, James Lyon, who roared in his blog on the web site of B92 with a Stalinist parody of the Serbian referendum.
Anywho…
Land-for-protection offer
The EU appears less alarmed by the ethnic Albanian threats of violence then Washington.
"The issue of the future status of Kosovo is a different matter that is being dealt with by [UN envoy] Martti Ahtisaari," said European Commission spokeswoman Krisztina Nagy and left the matter at that.
Washington, however, was quick to send its envoy Frank Wisner to Kosovo while some "unnamed" diplomats told the Kosovo Albanian newspaper Ekspres that UN is prepared to take away Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo but was not willing to grant full independence.
"Although the draft solution on the status of Kosovo, presented to the Contact Group by the mediator in the negotiations Martti Ahtisaari, does not contain the term independence, it provides for authorizations that could lead to conditional independence", wrote the daily citing some unnamed source who may have spoken in order to lay some ground work in advance of Frank Wisner's discussion with Kosovo Albanians.
Nevertheless, this is a significant development because it is the first time that, supposedly a Washington-based, unnamed source has altogether sidelined independence, unconditional and conditional, from the negotiating table.
In the past, this "unnamed" source close to the Contact Group was first promising an unconditional independence, then a "precisely worded" Security Council Resolution that will recognize Kosovo independence once some 13 criteria are met by Albanians, then rumors floated of a supervised independence and now the independence is sidelined altogether and replaced by administered sovereignty.
The point here is that there is a gradual and sustained reduction in the levels of independence that the Contact Group is offering to Kosovo Albanians and that for every reduction in the independence offer we have an escalation of independence rhetoric in the media in order to compensate for the anger the reduction may cause to the ethnic Albanian political leaders.
Exhausting All Independence Options
It then emerges that the deadline that Washington is chasing may be more for military reasons then for any practical matters of diplomacy that sound logic dictates.
"You need only three people, one landmine, one flag and a press communique to have an incident," says Macedonian Foreign Minister Antonio Milososki after talks with EU officials. Then he added that it is always best to take difficult decisions in the Balkans in winter before the snows melt and fighters can take to the mountains.
Since the Serbian army is mostly a mechanized mobile force that prefers to stay away from mountains, it follows that whatever the tough decision Contact Group makes, that decision will trigger Kosovo Albanian military reaction against the NATO troops on the ground.
It is perhaps this forward diplomatic knowledge of the effects of the actual decision that prompted NATO to sign military withdrawal rights through Serbia last year while using media to raise Kosovo Albanian expectations through the heavens not that they will ever be delivered but in order to tranquilize and perhaps set the most extremist elements of the Kosovo Albanian leadership in power and for a dramatic fall.
It is unlikely that the 1,100 US military personnel will institute the fall because they are there to stay. Recent beating of an American serviceman by Kosovo Albanians in a gas station demonstrates the precariousness of these troops that are afraid to even retaliate for that brutal beating although many know the names of these Kosovo Albanian drug-military gangsters that did the beating.
Before and if any military action breaks out in Kosovo, Washington appears to be engaged in a demonstration to the Kosovo Albanian leadership that it is willing to explore all diplomatic venues and thus exhaust all independence options. Given that independence is taken off the table, Washington has delinked sovereignty from independence and is publicly peddling that mantra.
Promising that he will press on the issue of an administered sovereignty with Belgrade, Wisner probably asked Kosovo Albanians in his recent visit for some additional token bargain that he could offer once he arrives in Belgrade.
According to a UPI report, once in Belgrade, Wisner said that in an independent Kosovo minority Serbs will be the best protected national group in the Balkans although, a wise diplomat that Wisner is, he should have known how ridiculous this "land-for-protection" offer sounds.
Wisner then proceeded to real business of reminding Serbia that status decision is near, a code word for urging Belgrade to quickly ratify the constitution because the idea of writing a new Serbian constitution suddenly became a paramount issue in Serbian politics only after Serbian President Tadic's visit to Washington in early October.
As the showdown on the decision on Kosovo status rapidly approaches the Security Council table, Washington and the British are also refining their promises to Kosovo Albanians arguing that, despite Russian and Chinese promises to veto independence, the Security Council will allow other states to recognize Kosovo Albanian independence.
“The Security Council would issue a mandate for a mission led by the European Union and invite individual countries to recognize Kosovo,” says said Anthony C. Welch of Britain, the coordinator of a review of Kosovo’s future security needs commissioned by the United Nations.
In other words, Kosovo Albanians are no longer promised any independence and, based on the track record of broken promises, a sane Kosovo Albanian politician now in power should not believe anything that the West is saying.
Instead of independence then, Washington and London are telling Kosovo Albanians that the Security Council will veto independence, that the EU will come in to rule Kosovo and perhaps, if they are good pets, individual countries may recognize them.
Will there be criteria for recognition? If so what is it? Is there a time line and if so what is it? Kosovo Albanians have no answer to any of these concrete questions yet they are blindly believing anything that Washington and the British promise to them.
According to a Reuters report, Agim Ceku expressed this blind trust in Western powers to grant Kosovo independence by the end of 2006.
“We trust the international community to drive this process through to the correct conclusion," Ceku said in a speech at Chatham House, the foreign policy think-tank, after meeting the British government on final status talks.
According to another unnamed senior European diplomat in the Kosovo capital Pristina the Security Council will offer Kosovo Albanians a solution proposal that only appears to have characters of independence but in reality, Kosovo Albanians will not get it.
“He doesn't mention independence but Ahtisaari is describing the criteria which characterise an independent country,’ the unnamed one said.
As a result of a Security Council deadlock, no independence but only promises, Kosovo Albanians would unilaterally declare independence and thus instigate a crisis with Serbia.
At that point, the Resolution 1244 would be suspended because it would be replaced with another. The language of the resolution that replaces the 1244 will dictate what happens after Kosovo Albanians unilaterally declare independence.
http://www.serbianna.com/columns/mb/052.shtml
Serbian News Network - SNN
news@antic.org
http://www.antic.org/
November 11, 2006
Kosovo: False calm before the real storm?
Kosovo: False calm before the real storm?
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WT EDITORIAL "HERE COMES KOSOVO"
FYi: This is my comment on the subject editorial I sent to the WP. I am sure they will not print it, but I am confident that some of their honchos will read it,....I hope with some thought....
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TO: Editor, Editorial Page
The Washington Post
SUBJECT: EDITORIAL "HERE COMES KOSOVO" (11/10/06)
It is generally known and accepted that most Americans do not know, understand or like history, which most other cultures accept and study as an invaluable source of knowledge and experience. "Mater studiorum," the old Romans used to call it.
Less informed Americans, on the other hand, look at history as an unnecessary burden that can only have a negative influence on the present state of affairs. That is best reflected in the saying, "You are history," which is usually directed at someone who has little to say or is possibly too closely associated with the past.
The Washington Post editorial, "Here Comes Kosovo" (11/10/06) is a perfect example of willful ignorance with respect to the Serbian province of Kosovo, the very cradle of the Serbian nation. Nowhere does the editorial note that Kosovo, which means in Serbian, the field of black birds, has been a part of Serbia, ever since the Serbs moved to it in the sixth century, four centuries before any Albanians were heard of in the Balkans,
Moreover, the editorial says that "By incorporating Kosovo into a new constitution, Serbia's leaders staked out yet another of the reckless nationalist stands that have caused their country so much damage in the past 115 years." Wrong again! It is the malevolent ignorance of historic facts, so grossly displayed by The Washington Post and other similarly inspired American publications that has caused so much damage to a small but brave nation and a loyal ally in two world wars. The Serbs do not want what belongs to others, but they will not give away what is rightfully theirs.
I am fully confident that the US and its citizens will react in the same way if someone suddenly decides that Southern California and/or New Mexico should secede just because there are more Spanish speaking Mexicans living there.
The "2 million enraged Albanians" in Kosovo, need to control their "meltdown" or just go where they came from, the neighboring Republic of Albania. Most Albanians came to Kosovo during World War II. with the help of the Albanian volunteer SS Division Skenderbeg, and during Marshall Tito's rule of Yugoslavia that maintained an open border with Albania as a show close wartime relationship between Yugoslavia's communist leader Tito and Albania's communist leader Enver Hoxha. Ever since then the incoming Albanians have systematically ethnically cleansed Kosovo of untold numbers of Kosovo Serbs.
The Washington Post editorial writers should study history. That would assure, at least, more meaningful and more accurate editorials
Michael Mennard, Ph.D.
20804 Noble Terrace #312
Potomac Falls, VA 20165
tel. 703/450-0789
e-mail: mmennard@aol.com
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TO: Editor, Editorial Page
The Washington Post
SUBJECT: EDITORIAL "HERE COMES KOSOVO" (11/10/06)
It is generally known and accepted that most Americans do not know, understand or like history, which most other cultures accept and study as an invaluable source of knowledge and experience. "Mater studiorum," the old Romans used to call it.
Less informed Americans, on the other hand, look at history as an unnecessary burden that can only have a negative influence on the present state of affairs. That is best reflected in the saying, "You are history," which is usually directed at someone who has little to say or is possibly too closely associated with the past.
The Washington Post editorial, "Here Comes Kosovo" (11/10/06) is a perfect example of willful ignorance with respect to the Serbian province of Kosovo, the very cradle of the Serbian nation. Nowhere does the editorial note that Kosovo, which means in Serbian, the field of black birds, has been a part of Serbia, ever since the Serbs moved to it in the sixth century, four centuries before any Albanians were heard of in the Balkans,
Moreover, the editorial says that "By incorporating Kosovo into a new constitution, Serbia's leaders staked out yet another of the reckless nationalist stands that have caused their country so much damage in the past 115 years." Wrong again! It is the malevolent ignorance of historic facts, so grossly displayed by The Washington Post and other similarly inspired American publications that has caused so much damage to a small but brave nation and a loyal ally in two world wars. The Serbs do not want what belongs to others, but they will not give away what is rightfully theirs.
I am fully confident that the US and its citizens will react in the same way if someone suddenly decides that Southern California and/or New Mexico should secede just because there are more Spanish speaking Mexicans living there.
The "2 million enraged Albanians" in Kosovo, need to control their "meltdown" or just go where they came from, the neighboring Republic of Albania. Most Albanians came to Kosovo during World War II. with the help of the Albanian volunteer SS Division Skenderbeg, and during Marshall Tito's rule of Yugoslavia that maintained an open border with Albania as a show close wartime relationship between Yugoslavia's communist leader Tito and Albania's communist leader Enver Hoxha. Ever since then the incoming Albanians have systematically ethnically cleansed Kosovo of untold numbers of Kosovo Serbs.
The Washington Post editorial writers should study history. That would assure, at least, more meaningful and more accurate editorials
Michael Mennard, Ph.D.
20804 Noble Terrace #312
Potomac Falls, VA 20165
tel. 703/450-0789
e-mail: mmennard@aol.com
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Here Comes Kosovo
A decision to make the Serb province independent is near. Will Serbia and Russia obstruct it?
Friday, November 10, 2006; Page A30
THE SERBIAN parliament formally adopted a new national constitution on Wednesday, following its narrow approval by voters in a referendum last month. The document was a necessary replacement of the previous charter, which was adopted during the rule of nationalist warlord Slobodan Milosevic. But it may have won acceptance only because it included a preamble that would have warmed Mr. Milosevic's heart: a declaration that the province of Kosovo, which Serbia in effect lost seven years ago, is an "integral" and "inalienable" part of the country.
In fact, the United Nations, which has governed Kosovo since NATO freed it from Mr. Milosevic's brutal ethnic cleansing campaign, is due to decide the province's future by year-end -- though a decision may be delayed until after a Serbian election scheduled for late January. Serb leaders know what a U.N. mediator will recommend and what all Western governments will support: independence for the territory, perhaps with transitional conditions. Kosovo is populated overwhelmingly by ethnic Albanians; after the ethnic war Mr. Milosevic initiated, there is no chance the province can be returned to Serbian sovereignty. By incorporating a claim to Kosovo into a new constitution, Serbia's leaders staked out yet another of the reckless nationalist stands that have caused their country so much damage in the past 15 years.
They also set the stage for some difficult and potentially dangerous diplomacy between the Bush administration and Russia over the next two months -- negotiations that could settle or destabilize the Balkans and the equally volatile Caucasus region on Russia's southern border. Russia, Serbia's long-standing ally, is the largest potential obstacle to consensus in the U.N. Security Council on a Kosovo solution. Though he knows that independence for Kosovo is inevitable, Russian President Vladimir Putin is hinting that he may support Serbia's obstructionism. He may hope to extract favors from President Bush in exchange for his eventual cooperation -- such as U.S. acquiescence to Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization.
Or Mr. Putin may try to use Kosovo to trigger a showdown with his Caucasus neighbor, Georgia, which has infuriated him by embracing liberal democracy and seeking integration into Western institutions such as NATO. Mr. Putin has said that Kosovo's independence could be a precedent for Moscow-sponsored breakaway regions in Eurasia, including two rebel provinces of Georgia. If Western governments recognize Kosovo's independence, Mr. Putin could respond by recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This could easily trigger a war that would draw in Russian troops; meanwhile, Moscow's position could encourage Serbs in Kosovo and Bosnia to set up splinter states.
Moscow is no doubt hoping that as the Bush administration contemplates this scenario, as well as its continuing need for Russian help in stopping Iran's nuclear program, it will be bluffed into postponing any decision on Kosovo or will abandon its support of Georgia's democracy and NATO aspirations. Either would be a serious mistake. Putting off Kosovo's independence would only enrage the province's 2 million Albanians and trigger the Balkan meltdown that the West hopes to avoid. It would also encourage Mr. Putin's growing tendency to use threats -- whether of energy-supply interruptions or violence -- to get his way with the West.
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