U.S., Russia: The Kosovo Bargaining Chip
November 01, 2007 18 00 GMT
Summary
While Russia and the United States continue to tango over issues of missile
defense and Iran, one issue has yet to be resolved: Kosovo. But as rumors swirl
of U.S. concessions to Russia, the Kosovar issue might just be added to the
tally of compromises.
Analysis
While the United States and Russia continue their heated tango, rumors of U.S.
concessions to Russia have been flying, with talk of compromises over ballistic
missile defense and the Conventional
Forces in Europe treaty. In exchange for these concessions, the United
States would expect Russia to cease its support for Iran and possibly help pass
new sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program. But another volatile bargaining
chip between Russia and the United States is sitting in the shadows: Kosovo.
Negotiations
between the United States and Russia have changed focus in the latter half of
the year. Russia countered the U.S. moves into Eastern and Central Europe with
its very public support for Iran, complicating U.S.-Iranian negotiations over
Iraq. This is a major shift from the July meeting between Russian President
Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush in Kennebunkport, Maine, when
one of the more
important items on the agenda was Kosovar
independence.
This issue has been on the table since 1999, when the United States and its
NATO allies, angered over Serbian behavior in Kosovo, ignored Russian
objections and waged a 60-day air war against Yugoslavia. Now, Moscow is
outraged at the possibility of an independent Kosovo -- not because it
considers Serbia an ally, but because a successful effort by the West to impose
its will on Serbia against Russian wishes would signal the end of Russia's
influence in Europe. It also would signal that the West believes Russian
objections can be easily swept under the rug.
But nothing has moved on the prolonged negotiations over the small Balkan
secessionist region, and now Kosovo is threatening to declare independence Dec.
10. Although it would seem the issue of Kosovo has gotten lost in the shuffle
between the world powers, it could be one of the issues thrown into the pot of
concessions.
Though neither Russia nor the United States has mentioned Kosovo much of late,
small items in the Serb and Kosovar media indicate that the issue is still very
much alive inside the negotiations. Talks resumed between Pristina and Belgrade
in Vienna this week, and Pristina went in with the assumption that a decision
would be made, given that Dec. 10 is only six weeks away. But the talks only
proved that the U.S., EU and Russian troika is staunchly divided. Moreover,
they show that the U.S. and EU positions are fractured.
Until this week, the United States and European Union were unified in their
position that Kosovar independence not only was inevitable but also would be
achieved this year. This has always been Kosovo's trump card against Russian
and Serb opposition to independence. However, on Oct. 29, the United States
suddenly proposed a new option of freezing Kosovar independence for another 12
years -- much to Pristina's horror. On top of this, the next proposal to be
considered at the troika meetings with Serbia and Kosovo is designed by none
other than Russia -- and of course, it would halt any moves for Kosovar
independence.
Additionally, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates let it slip during an Oct. 27
press conference on Afghanistan that the United States is considering pulling
its troops from the NATO coalition in Kosovo (KFOR).
These announcements could mean one of two things: Either the United States
simply has too much on its plate and needs to pull back somewhere, or Kosovo
has just become another concession Washington is willing to give Moscow.
As far as the first option, the United States does have its fingers in many
pies with its obligations in Iraq and Afghanistan -- not to mention its growing
concerns over Iran and Russia. In the 1990s, the United States stepped into the
Kosovar crisis when the Europeans could not handle it. But that was back when
the United States was not as busy. Pulling back diplomatically and/or
militarily from Kosovo would leave the issue in the Europeans'
lap, and geographically, they have a greater vested interest in a
resolution in the Balkans.
But the timing of the announcement seems to point to the second option. The new
proposal comes at a time of critical moves among the United States, Iran and
Russia -- and as rumors of U.S. concessions are leaking. Allowing the Europeans
to handle the Kosovar issue pushes the United States out of the Russian line of
fire. Also, it can be added to the tally of things Washington has set aside in
order to keep its balance with Moscow as the game continues.
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