http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/borut_grgic/2008/05/serbia_misses_the_boat.html
GUARDIAN (UK)
COMMENT IS FREE
Serbia misses the boat
Borut Grgic
May 10, 2008 10:00 AM
Serbia is again facing an election. These are now so frequent the joke is
that Serbia has a new national sport. Commentators claim this one is
crucial, but they said so of the last one, and the one before it. The
country is stuck in the past, and confused by its irrationalism.
The same faces keep appearing on the election posters - Tadic, Nikolic and
Kostunica. The three collectively in five years have done less than Djindjic
managed to do in two on his own. It is shocking that they are still around.
Europe is partly to blame for the state in which Serbia finds itself today.
The unconditional love the EU has shown for a class of political losers in
Serbia will end up costing Serbia a decade of progress and a generation. It
sounds impossible, but it is true.
For example, Serbia has regressed economically in the last decade more than
all its neighbours. Serbia attracted less foreign direct investment (FDI) in
comparative terms in the last year than all its neighbors. FDI has also been
less diverse in Serbia than in neighbouring countries. Notwithstanding
Kosovo, which is not yet recognised as a country by all the EU member
states, Belgrade was the last to negotiate a Stabilisation and Association
Agreement (SAA) with the EU. And the visa restrictions are keeping young
Serbs stuck in a country that is sinking.
For Serbia to change, Brussels needs to change. First, we in Europe need to
end this obsession, which some have that Serbia should be pulled on to the
cart - Belgrade willing or unwilling - before the EU train leaves the
station. In reverse psychology we're suggesting that Europe can't do without
Serbia and is therefore willing to wait and bend the rules. It is
counterproductive. We are not succeeding in changing the political behaviour
of Serbia, but we are making the rest in the region wonder why the double
standards, and whether it pays at all to reform.
The region has new economic stars which boast competitive investment
environments and EU-interoperable political platforms. In terms of balance
of power, Serbia is not the centre of gravity it once was; and it will never
again be. The Nato umbrella and the EU component have fundamentally changed
the nature of power distribution in this region.
Obsessed with Belgrade, Europe is guilty of overlooking, or discounting, the
progress that others have been making steadily and in some cases, very
rapidly. A case in point is Montenegro. The country is barely independent,
yet its economy is growing at close to 6% for the second consecutive year.
Its FDI is above $1bn, which for a country with a population of 700,000
people is an excellent progress report. There is a buzz about Montenegro in
the business world. Some top investors - and not just the Russians - are
looking to invest. The most recent example is the Canadian-Hungarian owner
of Barrick Gold, the world's biggest gold-mining firm. He's building a
marina in Montenegro.
Albania and Macedonia are beginning to attract similar business interests.
Progress is being made in the region on all levels, and this is happening
with and without Serbia. Why is it than that Europe can't have a Balkan
enlargement policy that is not reliant on Serbia, but in which Serbia is a
partner in its own design.
On the political level, Montenegro is the only former ex-Yugoslavian
republic which has achieved its independence by peaceful means, thanks in
some part also to Europe. It's a Balkan country where Albanians and Serbs
live in peace. There is no good reason why Eurocrats shouldn't be more
excited about Montenegro. The notion that the country is not doing enough to
clean up its corruption and crime is an excuse, not a policy. Podgorica
adopted the necessary institutional reforms and Montenegro is making no less
progress in fighting crime than its regional partners. Second, rooting out
corruption is not an overnight process.
At stake is the political will and patience, which Europe has little of for
the Balkan countries, notwithstanding Serbia. And because this is so, Serbia
feels that Europe needs it more than it wants the others, and that European
politicians, if pushed, would still rather explain to their public why they
are supporting Serbia's irrational populism than why Albania, Kosovo and the
rest of the Balkan countries have a rightful place in the European family.
Until Europe is willing to walk away from Serbia, Cedomir Jovanovic, the
young leader of the Serbian Liberal Democratic Party will never win an
election, and Serbia won't change. Thus, this Sunday's election doesn't
matter. The same faces will be back in power with the same political spins,
but new pretences about who are and aren't their friends. Thanks to Europe's
unconditional love and the SAA, which the EU signed with Serbia just last
week, we can all go on holiday this weekend.
letters@guardian.co.uk
GUARDIAN (UK)
COMMENT IS FREE
Serbia misses the boat
Borut Grgic
May 10, 2008 10:00 AM
Serbia is again facing an election. These are now so frequent the joke is
that Serbia has a new national sport. Commentators claim this one is
crucial, but they said so of the last one, and the one before it. The
country is stuck in the past, and confused by its irrationalism.
The same faces keep appearing on the election posters - Tadic, Nikolic and
Kostunica. The three collectively in five years have done less than Djindjic
managed to do in two on his own. It is shocking that they are still around.
Europe is partly to blame for the state in which Serbia finds itself today.
The unconditional love the EU has shown for a class of political losers in
Serbia will end up costing Serbia a decade of progress and a generation. It
sounds impossible, but it is true.
For example, Serbia has regressed economically in the last decade more than
all its neighbours. Serbia attracted less foreign direct investment (FDI) in
comparative terms in the last year than all its neighbors. FDI has also been
less diverse in Serbia than in neighbouring countries. Notwithstanding
Kosovo, which is not yet recognised as a country by all the EU member
states, Belgrade was the last to negotiate a Stabilisation and Association
Agreement (SAA) with the EU. And the visa restrictions are keeping young
Serbs stuck in a country that is sinking.
For Serbia to change, Brussels needs to change. First, we in Europe need to
end this obsession, which some have that Serbia should be pulled on to the
cart - Belgrade willing or unwilling - before the EU train leaves the
station. In reverse psychology we're suggesting that Europe can't do without
Serbia and is therefore willing to wait and bend the rules. It is
counterproductive. We are not succeeding in changing the political behaviour
of Serbia, but we are making the rest in the region wonder why the double
standards, and whether it pays at all to reform.
The region has new economic stars which boast competitive investment
environments and EU-interoperable political platforms. In terms of balance
of power, Serbia is not the centre of gravity it once was; and it will never
again be. The Nato umbrella and the EU component have fundamentally changed
the nature of power distribution in this region.
Obsessed with Belgrade, Europe is guilty of overlooking, or discounting, the
progress that others have been making steadily and in some cases, very
rapidly. A case in point is Montenegro. The country is barely independent,
yet its economy is growing at close to 6% for the second consecutive year.
Its FDI is above $1bn, which for a country with a population of 700,000
people is an excellent progress report. There is a buzz about Montenegro in
the business world. Some top investors - and not just the Russians - are
looking to invest. The most recent example is the Canadian-Hungarian owner
of Barrick Gold, the world's biggest gold-mining firm. He's building a
marina in Montenegro.
Albania and Macedonia are beginning to attract similar business interests.
Progress is being made in the region on all levels, and this is happening
with and without Serbia. Why is it than that Europe can't have a Balkan
enlargement policy that is not reliant on Serbia, but in which Serbia is a
partner in its own design.
On the political level, Montenegro is the only former ex-Yugoslavian
republic which has achieved its independence by peaceful means, thanks in
some part also to Europe. It's a Balkan country where Albanians and Serbs
live in peace. There is no good reason why Eurocrats shouldn't be more
excited about Montenegro. The notion that the country is not doing enough to
clean up its corruption and crime is an excuse, not a policy. Podgorica
adopted the necessary institutional reforms and Montenegro is making no less
progress in fighting crime than its regional partners. Second, rooting out
corruption is not an overnight process.
At stake is the political will and patience, which Europe has little of for
the Balkan countries, notwithstanding Serbia. And because this is so, Serbia
feels that Europe needs it more than it wants the others, and that European
politicians, if pushed, would still rather explain to their public why they
are supporting Serbia's irrational populism than why Albania, Kosovo and the
rest of the Balkan countries have a rightful place in the European family.
Until Europe is willing to walk away from Serbia, Cedomir Jovanovic, the
young leader of the Serbian Liberal Democratic Party will never win an
election, and Serbia won't change. Thus, this Sunday's election doesn't
matter. The same faces will be back in power with the same political spins,
but new pretences about who are and aren't their friends. Thanks to Europe's
unconditional love and the SAA, which the EU signed with Serbia just last
week, we can all go on holiday this weekend.
letters@guardian.co.uk
