Give up Kosovo to join EU: Not as
enticing to Serbia as West thinks
Friday, September 14, 2007
BELGRADE: Eight years after it was hit by NATO airstrikes,
the former Yugoslav Defense Ministry still lies in ruins, a reminder of what
the Serbs consider unwarranted aggression by the West in the war over the
Serbian province of Kosovo.
Their anger is flaring up again as Western governments, particularly the
United States, speak of recognizing Kosovo this year as an independent state.
The West says that in the absence of reconciliation, doing so would help
stabilize the region by officially separating the Serbs from the ethnic
Albanians who are the majority population of Kosovo.
Serbian politicians, even pro-Western ones, say that they worry that a
recognition of Kosovo would introduce a new era of Serbian isolation and
hostility toward the West - leaving Europe with little sway here.
Since the war ended in 1999, Europe has tried to integrate Serbia into NATO
and the European Union. And as a regional power, Serbia expected an easy
pathway into Europe, especially since many of its neighbors have joined the
union.
But Europe has also demanded that Serbs make a fresh start by chasing down
important war crimes suspects wanted at the tribunal for the former Yugoslavia
in The Hague. Serbia has complied only fitfully.
If Western countries do recognize Kosovo, then "we do not need the
European Union," Velimir Ilic, Serbia's minister for infrastructure and a
key political ally of the Serbian prime minister, said in an interview.
"It means they are not our friends."
He added: "It is a tough choice, but Serbia has its pride and its
integrity."
Ilic, who has a reputation as a populist politician, is the only senior
government politician to issue such a statement. But others agree that a
nationalist backlash would chill relations with the West.
A widespread recognition of Kosovo "could lead to a chain of events
with unforeseen consequences, including the loss of Serbia's European
perspective," Leon Koen, the former head of Serbia's negotiating team on
the province, wrote in the newspaper Dnevnik.
And Serbia's senior diplomat for European integration predicted that
whatever support there is among Serbs for arresting war crimes suspects and
sending them to The Hague would vanish if Kosovo was recognized.
"I can't see how anybody would be ready to support cooperation"
with the tribunal, said Milica Delevic, a reformist who is Serbia's assistant
foreign minister responsible for relations with the EU. "We will be in
trouble."
Western governments are determined to resolve Kosovo's future to stabilize
the province and calm the ethnic Albanians who make up more than 90 percent of the
population and who largely clamor for independence. The United States has
spoken openly of recognizing Kosovo and is pushing the Europeans to settle on a
policy.
But the Europeans have painted themselves into a corner, having pushed for a
deal at the United Nations Security Council that Russia has blocked.
That leaves Europe divided just as it is trying to display a strong foreign
policy.
Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations since 1999, after a NATO
bombing campaign to oust Serbian forces who had committed widespread atrocities
against ethnic Albanians.
The wartime Yugoslav president, Slobodan Milosevic, was defeated in
elections in 2000 and turned over to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague,
where he died while his trial was under way. Yugoslavia continued its
devolution, with Montenegro finally claiming independence from Serbia in May of
2006.
Meanwhile, Serbia has made faltering progress toward membership of both the
EU and NATO. It hopes to complete formal agreements on closer ties with the EU
this year.
Last year, Serbia became a member of the NATO partnership for peace program,
one step short of full membership in the alliance.
Senior members of Serbia's pro-Western Democratic Party - including
President Boris Tadic and Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic - have reassured Western
allies that Belgrade remains committed to membership in Euro-Atlantic
institutions regardless of what happens in Kosovo.
But signs of a break with the West are emerging, and officials close to
Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica are advocating a closer relationship with
Russia, the ally that so far has forestalled attempts in the Security Council
to grant Kosovo independence.
Political analysts said that conservative newspapers and state-owned media
have promoted more-favorable views of Russia and of President Vladimir Putin in
particular.
At the same time, conservatives within Kostunica's circle are questioning
the value of ties with NATO.
"We want cooperation but not full membership," said Dusan
Prorokovic, Serbia's state secretary for Kosovo and a senior member of
Kostunica's Serbian Democratic party, adding that most Serbs have never
forgiven the alliance for its entry into the war and 78-day bombing campaign.
"Personally, I cannot forget that."
Two senior government ministers have accused NATO of trying to make Kosovo a
state for its own purposes.
In fact, public support for NATO has never been high, and skepticism of the
European Union has increased as negotiations drag on, according to opinion poll
professionals.
Support for EU membership fell to 53 percent in August, according to the
Strategic Marketing agency.
"The debate is being steered in a direction that makes strategy toward
NATO membership and the European Union very difficult," said Delevic, the
assistant foreign minister responsible for relations with the EU.
European Union officials, meanwhile, insist that a compromise between ethnic
Albanians and Serbs is possible.
Whatever the outcome, officials in Brussels argue that Serbia's long-term
interests lie with the West.
"I don't think Serbs want to be part of the Russian Federation. They
see their future in the European Union," Cristina Gallach, a spokeswoman
for Javier Solana, the EU chief foreign policy representative, said in a
telephone interview.
But as the decision time for Kosovo looms, regional analysts said that the
nationalists who dominate Serbia's Parliament control events in the country.
"People in Brussels presume that every country in Europe is dying to
get into the European Union," said James Lyon, Belgrade director of the
International Crisis Group, a policy research group with offices throughout the
Balkans.
But if Kosovo splits off, Lyon said in a telephone interview, Europe's
leverage over Serbia will evaporate, along with its ability to promote reform.
"What do you do with a country that doesn't want EU membership?"
he asked.
Notes:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/09/14/europe/serbia.php
Powered by ScribeFire.
