September 23, 2019

Belgrade’s central role

neweurope.eu

Belgrade's central role

11-14 minutes


Serbia is now a part of the solution, not the problem

Serbia's Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic speaks with New Europe about the difficult political and economic tasks facing his country as Belgrade continues down the path of EU membership, building stronger relations with the US and Eurasia, and finalising a constructive solution to the issue of Kosovo. 

Ivica Dacic, Serbia's Foreign Minister, is clear about one particular subject – Serbia is fully committed to EU membership and closing a deal with Kosovo's Albanian population, both of which will take into account the interests of Serbia, the Big Powers (the US, Russia, and China), and the EU by giving it the sort of international legitimacy that will yield a stable and lasting solution.

"EU membership is Serbia's strategic goal. This is our government's fundamental policy and its supported by the majority of our citizens," said the 53-year-old veteran politician, who also served as Serbia's Prime Minister and headed the Ministry of Information.

The EU membership target sees Serbia successfully carry out necessary, but difficult reforms. Dacic noted that "Perhaps, what is even more important is how we reform our society and how successfully we secure Serbia's equitable position within the European structure.

This is especially true for Serbia's economy, since the EU is, without question, Serbia's biggest trade and investment partner, accounting for as much as 70% of our overall trade of imports and exports. The EU is a logical cultural and civilisational environment for Serbia, in view of the fact that millions of our citizens rely on the countries of the European Union for business, tourism, education, and such; or they have families living and working there. Our EU membership will only strengthen and formalise these and other strong ties which Serbia maintains with the members of the EU."

Fatigue in Brussels over the EU's enlargement programme and a growing sense introversion among the candidate countries in the region is beginning to erode support for EU membership, Dacic says, and both sides are to blame.

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic attends a press conference with his Spanish counterpart, Josep Borrell, in Belgrade.
EPA-EFE/ANDREJ CUKIC

"It's been full 16 years since a country from the region has been admitted, and this sends a bad, dispiriting message. The EU seriously risks losing credibility. We in the Balkans are at fault, but by all means Brussels should shoulder the blame as well. Even (outgoing EU foreign affairs chief) Frederica Mogherini admitted saying that the EU has neglected the Balkans and must engage much more and quickly to maintain the region on the European path or else the price to pay will be very high," Dacic emphatically reiterated.

Within this context Dacic reiterated Serbia's call for the EU to open talks with North Macedonia and Albania, a point that he says needs to drive home the point that the "West Balkan countries must not remain the black hole of Europe".

With no ultimate goal still in sight, some Western circles still insist that Serbia adjust its foreign policy with the EU and impose sanctions against Russia, despite, much to Moscow's displeasure, having supported Ukraine's territorial integrity in the ongoing conflict. Dacic dismissed the notion that Serbia is "sitting on two chairs" saying, "I have clearly said that EU membership is Serbia's strategic goal. No ifs, nor buts about it."

"That said, we also believe that this interim period must not be detrimental to our other interests. Promoting relations with Russia is a constant and important interest of Serbia. Serbia and Russia have maintained close cultural relations for centuries. Our economic cooperation is quite big, particularly in the fields of energy and direct investments.

Many of our partners in the EU understand our position and as far as I can see some European capitals are more and more speaking loudly about the need for relaxation of relations with Russia, primarily at the economic and trade level. Europe and Russia are interdependent regarding trade and energy and any disruption is very damaging to both sides. We hope for, and urge a relaxation of, the tensions between the West and Russia because that would be very important for my country."

Ivica Dacic and Federica Mogherini, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, walk together to the Informal Meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers at the Grandmaster's Palace in Valletta, Malta.EPA-EFE//DOMENIC AQUILINA

Serbia has so far resisted any pressure to abandon its neutral policy, insisting on good relations with all sides and reiterating its commitment to the EU membership. Nonetheless, any interaction with Moscow has raised eyebrows and the latest news that Serbia will sign a trade deal with the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union has some quarters concerned.

"This agreement opens many doors for our economy and that is our sole motive," said Dacic.

Serbia already has similar agreements and with big economies like Russia and Turkey making it a top destination for development finance institutions in Southeast Europe.

Further allaying fears, Dacic added, "We are fully aware that once a member of the EU, Serbia will have to adjust its foreign trade arrangements to conform to membership rules. But until then, we believe that free trade with those in the Eurasian Economic Union in no way impedes our strategic ambitions to become a member of the EU."

Speaking about pressures to stop Serbia's diplomatic drive to block Kosovo from joining international institutions like UNESCO and Interpol, Dacic said that quite a few EU members accept Belgrade's arguments against membership for Kosovo.

In stark contrast to its previous practice of rejecting any proposals on Kosovo, Belgrade's position now is "fully constructive and fully committed to seeking a long-term solution through a dialogue and compromise. Some influential countries cannot accept this about-turn and still insist on applying pressure which is now not just irrelevant, but also detrimental to the entire process. An imposed solution is never a long-lasting solution," Dacic said.   

EU's double-standards for secessionists

When asked if he believes that the EU has a double-standard when it comes to their attitudes toward the situations in Kosovo and Spain's northwestern region of Catalonia, which has been plagued by a nationalist/secessionist movement in recent years, Dacic added, "I could not agree that the EU has any standards at all. Spain is the best example of what I'm saying. We highly appreciate and are grateful to Spain as one of the five EU members not to recognise the independence of Kosovo or Metohija (a region in southwestern Kosovo) and has no intention of ever doing so. Spain has seen the results of an irresponsible attitude by the international community to the demands of some regions for independence, as in the case of Kosovo. Catalonia's case has clearly shown that Europe rejects a unilateral decision on independence without the blessing of the home country. This is the principle we have been defending for decades."

US shifting its position

Dacic welcomed a new effort by the Americans to play a more active role in solving the Kosovo problem. Recently, he expressed his wish that US President Donald J. Trump call a summit involving the principal decision-makers from both countries, once that would be similar to the Camp David summit called by President Jimmy Carter in 1978 that saw bitter enemies Israel and Egypt sign a peace deal.

"This is especially significant since it shows they now accept Serbia's arguments in the quest for a long-term solution. This is a novel situation. The Americans now have quite clearly seen that Kosovo's independence, which they supported and sponsored for years, is not a closed book after all. Right now, it is more a part of the problem in the region than a solution, unlike Serbia's role. Closer cooperation with Serbia, and respect of Belgrade's arguments, is the correct road to take and inevitably leads to success."    

"We want the future solution for Kosovo to have as broad as possible international legitimacy to give it stable and lasting foundations," Dacic said while stressing the need to include as many interested parties as possible into the process.

"In order to achieve a solution, we must take into account the positions and interests not only of US, and some other EU countries, but also Russia and China, all the permanent members of the UN Security Council, and, naturally, Serbia. But in order to have any movement and for Belgrade to return to the negotiating table, Pristina must lift its 100% taxes on goods from Serbia, which is in stark violation of the CEFTA (Central European Free Trade Agreement) free trade accord," Dacic said in reference to a 100% tariff imposed by Kosovo's government in November 2018 on all goods coming from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Pristina has since continued to ignore its Western backers and refused to revoke the tax.

Dacic also welcomed the appointment of Matthew Palmer, a veteran Balkans hand, as the US' Special Envoy for the region and said he has a huge and difficult task ahead. "His appointment means that the Americans are serious about seizing this opportunity to achieve a solution, we should be too." 

Solidarity needed as tensions appear to be on the rise

The EU needs to push for more solidarity in the region, according to Dacic, when he referred to the increased number of attacks on Serbs in Croatia, which he referred to as "systematic and open violence" that is being completely ignored by both Zagreb and the EU.

"In this sort of atmosphere, with election campaign season fast approaching, this can only increase (Croatian) nationalist and anti-Serb incidents. We are afraid for the security of Serbs in Croatia, more than ever since the end of the (1991-1992) war, and we use every opportunity to ask the European politicians to put a stop to that wave of hatred and violence towards our compatriots. Tolerance and respect for others is plunging to a new low and given the lack of will by the EU, we do not expect anything to change."

His comments came after 15 Croats, wearing masks and toting clubs, reportedly beat a group of Serbs in the eastern Croatian town of Knin, once a Serb stronghold, because they were watching a football match involving Red Star Belgrade.

Voters' concerns in Serbia

Over the last several elections in Serbia, and despite the rise of nationalist and populism in the neighbouring countries of the Balkans, the subject of Kosovo's status was not even among the top five issues of Serb voters' minds over the last several elections. The economy was what the majority of Serbs said was their biggest concern, which added further proof that nationalist rhetoric has a fleeting political effect, but lasting toxic impact on the relations among peoples of a historically volatile region. 

"This is exactly what I'm talking about. Election campaigns cannot be a pretext for national bestiality. Why don't we have the same thing in Serbia during our elections? Not a single window on an Albanian or Croat house was broken, not a single hair was harmed. That is why we ask the others to behave with the same maturity and tolerance."

 

Dark Clouds Over Serbia

neweurope.eu

Dark Clouds Over Serbia

By Jovan Kovacic
Political Affairs Editor, New Europe

8-11 minutes


US and Russia struggle for influence

Maria Zakharova, the public mouthpiece of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, made the biggest and most chilling impression when she scolded the US Ambassador to Serbia Kyle Scott for his comments on the future of Serbian-American relations.

Zakharaova's words were a strange departure from the standard diplomatic practice as a foreign ministry does not usually comment on the statements of ambassadors of a rival power and made in a third country with no reference to its own state. Pundits say there is more of this to come and will only get worse as US-Russian tensions grow and their fight over influence in the Balkans intensifies.

Noting the current excellent relations between the US and Serbia, Scott said in an interview with a Serbian daily that "It is finally the time to move forward and improve our relations and we have very good foundations to do so. We share the same vision of Serbia becoming a deserving member in the European Union."

This did not sit well with Moscow as Zakharova offered a sharply-worded retort, saying, "The US must first apologise for the (1999) bombing Yugoslavia, pay for damages to the families of the killed and wounded in the attacks, and only then ask from others to look into the future." The message was loud and clear that Moscow is following the growing ties between Washington and Belgrade closely and will not look kindly on the growing rapprochement between White House and the Serbian government. 

Washington's engagement

Until a few years ago the firm belief in Washington was that the Kosovo issue had already been resolved and that the Western Balkans will plod along en route to becoming a member of the EU. During that period, Moscow made an unprecedented effort in the history of Serbian-Russian relations to win hearts and minds. The Kremlin had alarming success with Serbia's population, largely because they pressed the issue without ever being in competition with a third party. Russia's support for Serbia in the UN Security Council, which included blocking Kosovo's membership in the UN, gave Moscow significant leverage in Belgrade. At the same time, Serbia's diplomacy went into overdrive and prompted 15 countries to revoke or annul their recognition of Kosovo. When Russia opened Belgrade outlets for its two propaganda outlets – Russia Today and Sputnik – and after Donald J. Trump was elected president, the Americans finally woke up to the current realities in the Western Balkans.

Washington is now saying it will accept any arrangement that Belgrade and Pristina can reach. Trump has followed this up by appointing a Balkans veteran, Mathew Palmer, as special envoy to the troubled region to reinvigorate the stalled talks between the Serbian and Kosovar sides. He already holds the position of Deputy Assistant Secretary responsible for the region in the State Department's Bureau for Europe and Eurasia. Negotiations have been frozen since Pristina imposed a 100% tariff on all Serbian imports, a major contravention of the regional free trade CEFTA agreement. Serbia has enthusiastically welcomed the US' change of heart as well as its renewed involvement in the peace process, which has included floating the idea of holding an international conference on Kosovo which would include the US, EU, Russia, China, and Turkey – all which have vested interests in the region.

This downgrades Moscow's leverage over Belgrade, which consistently reiterated its commitment to becoming a member of the EU. Serbia has, so far, refused to join the ranks of current members of the EU to impose economic sanctions on Russia for its illegal annexation of Crimea, but has also said clearly it is aware that joining the European Union means Belgrade must streamline its foreign policy and commitments with those of Brussels.

The 100th anniversary of the Serbian flag flying over the White House to commemorate the bravery of the Serbian soldiers in World War I was a media topic in Serbia for days. The bilateral goodwill also included a commemoration of the 75th anniversary of Operation Halyard when 500 American pilots were saved by their World War II Serbian allies.

This was not welcome or good news for Moscow, which has already suffered embarrassing defeats at the hands of the West in both Montenegro and North Macedonia. Zakharova's ominous statement indicates that Moscow will not cede its last remnants of patronage in the Balkans without a fight. This will undoubtedly be seen as a foreboding dark cloud hanging over the locals of the region.

Rethinking the Kosovo question

Pristina has thus far turned a deaf ear to the demands of its erstwhile mentors – the US and EU – that it must lift the tariffs bringing the government down. Elections are scheduled for October 6 and already the US and EU have said they hoped the new government will revoke the tariffs to reopen the talks with Belgrade.

  Czech President Milos Zeman recently told his host, Serb President Aleksandar Vucic, that his country should rethink its recognition of Kosovo. Zeman's Prime Minister Andrej Babis rejected the idea out of hand, but later backtracked saying he could not make such a decision on his own and would leave it to his government to decide. Interesting times, not that anyone expects this to really happen. Similar public suggestions have been the main drivers behind Belgrade's increasingly friendly relationship with the Visegrad Group – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. 

In another body blow, Dr. John M. Nomikos, the Director at the Research Institute for European and American Studies in Athens, said in an interview that the number one problem for the Western Balkans is not Islamic extremism, but rather the Albanian organised crime syndicates that control most of the drug trade, trafficking and money laundering in Europe and also cooperates with Islamic extremists in Albania and Kosovo.

Observers worry that organised crime rings in Kosovo could play a detrimental role in the peace process simply because they are not interested in having a modern, transparent, and law-abiding state with an independent judiciary and uncorrupted police force.

Worrying signs in Bosnia

Not to be outpaced in the quest to dominate the regional spotlight, the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), Bosnia and Herzegovina's leading Bosniak party, may have opened Pandora's Box after adopting at its recent congress a resolution calling for the reorganisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a unitary republic with Sarajevo as its political, administrative, cultural and economic center. The proposal is a violation of the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords that ended Bosnia's brutal three-year civil war. Dayton specifically defined Bosnia as a state comprising two entities – the Bosnian-Croat Federation and the Republika Srpska – made up of the country's three main ethno-religious groups of Muslim Bosniaks, Orthodox Serbs, and Catholic Croats.

Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, immediately warned in his patented firebrand manner that the Serb regions of Bosnia could move towards secession if the SDA follows through with its proposal.

The international community's top representatives in Bosnia also echoed Dodik's condemnation. Valentin Inzko, the High Representative, slammed the SDA's resolution as it failed to gain the consent of either the Serbs and Croats. Inzko and the OSCE accused the Bosniak party of knowingly stoking ethnic tensions.

Bosnia also experienced its first gay pride parade earlier this month. With a large police presence on the streets, hundreds of Sarajevans defied threats of violence by conservative Islamic groups to march, sing, and wave rainbow flags in the predominately Muslim city. Bosnia is the last of the former Yugoslav republics to hold a gay pride event.

Belgrade also held a large, now routinely peaceful pride march this month, which was attended by Serbia first gay prime minister, Ana Brnabic, and her partner Milica Durdic.

EU hopes to act as go-between to avoid political impasse

Embattled Serbian opposition has only partially welcomed an initiative by David McAllister, the Chair of the European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee, for the European Parliament to mediate with the Serbian authorities in the hope of staving off an election boycott that is due early next year. Denying any wrongdoing, the ruling SNS party, which steadily polls above 50%, has welcomed the initiative and has also called for OSCE to immediately send a team and check the opposition's demands.

Observers say that those parties urging the boycott and claiming that six months are not enough to resolve all the issues even with EU and OSCE involvement are simply covering up their lack of voter support and vision, hence the lukewarm welcome to the EP initiative.

 

September 15, 2019

NATIONAL INTEREST: Is Another Nation Going to Buy the S-400 from Russia?

Is Another Nation Going to Buy the S-400 from Russia?

Is Serbia next?

by Charlie Gao

In September 2019, Russia and Serbia held their first joint air-defense exercise, Slavic Shield. In this exercise, Serbian air-defense troops learned how to use the S-400 air defense system, practicing its employment against a variety of targets, both simulated and real. Naturally, this opens the question as to whether Serbia plans to buy the S-400. But a look back into the history of Serbia provides mixed answers.

According to an oral history given by former Yugoslavian Minister of Foreign Affairs Živadin Jovanović, the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) was interested in the S-300 air defense system as early as 1989. Negotiations were underway when the SFRY began to dissolve in 1991, along with the Soviet Union. Deliveries did not occur due to the following civil war and the fact that the SFRY supported the Soviet hardliners during the Soviet breakup. 

But following the lifting of the arms embargo with the Dayton accords in 1995, the new Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (basically consisting of the modern states of Serbia and Montenegro) began looking at air defense systems again. Plans to buy the S-300VM variant along with other medium-range systems were put into place, and Yugoslavian air-defense troops were sent to Russia for training on them. 

But the Kosovo War in 1998 prevented these deliveries as well. The UN placed another embargo on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1998. Air defense troops who were training in Russia were not allowed to return, and no launchers or missiles were delivered. Yugoslavian air defense during the Kosovo War was conducted primarily with surplus S-125 Nevas bought from Romania. 

With the lifting of the arms embargo again in 2001, the new Republic of Serbia was free to buy weapons again, but was in no position to. Local industry continued to modernize the S-125s, and in 2017 two batteries of Buk-MB launchers were ordered from Belarus, a fairly deep modernization of the medium-ranged Buk missile. But even then, there have been continual reports that Serbia wants to buy the S-300. These reports invariably are denied by both Serbia and Russia, which dismiss them as not being part of the official plan for defense and technical cooperation.

But the inclusion of Serbia in air-defense exercises in 2019 may suggest that the tides are changing. It's possible that the Serbian Ministry of Defense has been waiting for Russia to begin offering the S-400 to more countries, and now thinks it is an opportune time to make a purchase. 

On the other hand, Serbian government-sponsored media published a headline article on September 5 that said Trump's special envoy the Western Balkans, Matthew Palmer, had offered an incredible deal to Serbia. The deal was a squadron of F-16s, $10 billion dollars, and guaranteed EU membership by 2024 in exchange for recognition of the independence of Kosovo. 

While highly unlikely that this is true, as no western source has reported it and the deal would be incredibly expensive, Serbia has been looking westward recently in arms purchases. Serbia took delivery of several Airbus H145M helicopters and MBDA Mistral short-range anti-air missiles earlier this year. It's possible that like the former SFRY, Serbia is looking to play both Russia and the West in an attempt to acquire the best weapons for its military. S-400 training with Russia may be just another part of the long play.

Charlie Gao studied Political and Computer Science at Grinnell College and is a frequent commentator on defense and national security issues.

 

Image: Reuters