b92.net

When U.S. official defends Serbia in the middle of Croatia

5-7 minutes

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US Special Envoy for the Balkans Gabriel Escobar responded to the Croatian president, who said that Serbia has no sincere desire to become a member of the EU.

Source: Tanjug Friday, November 26, 2021 | 09:07

EPA-EFE/FEHIM DEMIR

In an interview with the Croatian agency, Escobar said that Serbia "historically, culturally and economically belongs to Europe" and that most of its citizens believe that their future is in that alliance. He also reminded Milanovic that Serbia stated EU membership as its strategic goal and that it was already connected with that alliance.

"I think that process has already come a long way," Escobar said.

In his opinion, Serbia should be faster in that process, but he pointed out that less progress, partially aggravated by the pandemic, was still achieved. "In terms of foreign policy alignment with the EU, Serbia has been better this year than it has been for a long time," Escobar said, citing a European mechanism that measures overlaps in foreign policy decisions, according to which to the extent of two-thirds, Serbia has harmonized its foreign policy with the EU.

What about Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Escobar also assessed that Bosnia and Herzegovina does not have an outstanding ethnic issue, but a problem of systemic corruption. He also said that he was more worried about demographic and economic difficulties in BiH than ethnic issues.

He emphasized that the structure with three constituent peoples remains the foundation of American policy in Bosnia-Herzegovina. "Political consensus can be reached through limited reforms, not by changing the structure of Dayton," Escobar said, adding that the United States is currently working with BiH political actors to change the election law to satisfy all three peoples in the federation.

He stated that he dislikes talking about sanctions because, as he said, "he does not want the region to get the impression that the United States is engaged in it primarily through sanctions. Sanctions do exist, but they will not be targeted at the Republika Srpska and the Federation or their citizens, but at corrupt individuals", stressed Escobar. He added that the Serbian member of the Presidency of Bosnia-Herzegovina, as he said," is not the only, but the most current problem" in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

 

b92.net

Russia will support the independence of Republika Srpska under one condition

7-8 minutes

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Russian Ambassador to BiH, Igor Kalabukhov, says he sees no problem in Milorad Dodik's idea of an independent Republika Srpska within Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Source: Beta Thursday, November 11, 2021 | 16:45

Foto: Shutterstok/smith371

Russian Ambassador to BiH, Igor Kalabukhov, said that the condition for it should be the result of dialogue between all parties in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Kalabukhov stated that it is a matter of politicians, democratic decisions, and that Russia will support it if "it is realized in dialogue".

Russian ambassador told the BiH Public Service (BHRT) that he advocates the principle of resolving the crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina through dialogue, all decisions must be made through dialogue, in communication between the entities, which must decide how to find the best way out of the current situation.

Kalabukhov further stated that the Russian position is that there is no High Representative in Bosnia-Herzegovina, because the procedure for appointing Christian Schmidt to that position has not been followed. He reminded that the decision on the appointment of the German diplomat was made by the ambassadors of the member states of the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council in BiH (PIC) without consensus and without the consent of the High Representative in the UN Security Council.

"As a guarantor of the Dayton Agreement, we are a member of the PIC, but we do not work in the OHR while Christian Schmidt is there. We do not support any official contacts with Schmidt," Kalabukhov said. He also assessed that Valentin Inzko's decision to impose a law banning genocide denial, which he passed as the High Representative at the very end of his mandate, was "subjective and unbalanced".

"It would be best if that decision was in the BiH institutions, during the debate, during the dialogue. This dialogue is being conducted. Of course, not everyone may know about this dialogue, but it is being discussed in diplomatic circles. It is a term which, due to political repercussions, must be very balanced and very sensitive", Russian ambassador said.

Kalabukhov pointed out that he "does not see a problem in the fact that the Republika Srpska repealed the decision of the High Representative, although Inzko made that decision in accordance with his powers", adding that it was a matter for the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska.

"We didn't want to blame the whole nation"

According to him, in 2015, Russia did not support the Resolution on Srebrenica in the UN Security Council, which was prepared by Great Britain, because, as he stated, the draft was unbalanced and blamed the entire nation.

Kalabukhov also said that the decisions of the Hague Tribunal are also questionable for Russia. "When we were at the beginning of this story for the establishment of this court, we said that we see its work as an instrument of reconciliation in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Unfortunately, that did not happen. We think that what was done there did not lead to reconciliation and tolerance in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and that is why our position in relation to these decisions and all the tragic events is known", he pointed out.

According to him, Russia's diplomacy is trying to balance everything concerning Bosnia-Herzegovina, and they are trying to "balance the whole position of the international factor".

 

economist.com

A Balkans arms race

Serbia is on a shopping spree for weapons

And its neighbours don’t like it

 

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Oct 30th 2021

BELGRADE

“COME WITH me,” says Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s president. “Now you are going to see a smile on my face!” From the terrace of Belgrade’s presidency building he points at skyscrapers shooting up and declares triumphantly: “Like a phoenix rising from the ashes!”

Other former Yugoslav states worry that Serbia’s army is also rising from the ashes. During a petty dispute with Kosovo about car number-plates in September, Serbia flew warplanes close to the border and deployed armoured vehicles to cow its smaller neighbour.

Between 2015 and 2021 Serbia’s defence spending jumped by some 70% to $1.4bn a year. Russia and Belarus have given it ten MiG-29 jets. Russia has given it 30 tanks and armoured personnel-carriers and sold it an air-defence system. It has bought Chinese armoured drones, Russian helicopters and a French surface-to-air missile system. This month the defence minister announced that Serbia was negotiating to buy transport planes and helicopters from Airbus. Last month came news that it was talking to Israel about anti-tank missiles. Turkish drones, which were used to devastating effect in last year’s defeat of Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, may be on the shopping list. Serbia’s own defence industry is also producing new kit, as opposed to just churning out more Yugoslav-era stuff.

After the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s Serbia’s military capacity decayed. But in 2014 the government decided to rearm. Russia’s intervention in Ukraine showed that the era of conventional warfare in Europe was not over; and floods in Serbia that year were a “wake-up call”, says Daniel Sunter of the Balkan Security Network, a think-tank. They revealed that the country had barely any helicopters for search-and-rescue missions. In 2015 Croatia, also restoring its armed forces, asked America to supply it with rockets which, if fired at Serbia, could reach deep inside the country.

A modern state needs a modern army, says Mr Vucic. Serbia spends more in absolute terms than before, but its defence spending as a share of GDP has hovered around 2% since 2005. Compared with Bulgaria, Hungary or Romania, that is “peanuts”, says Mr Vucic. But Serbs were not at war with Bulgaria, Hungary or Romania in the 1990s. They were at war with neighbours that now have smaller military budgets. Serbia outspends Albania, Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo and North Macedonia combined. It also outspends Croatia, which is buying French jets to restore its almost non-existent air capacity.

If Serbia were merely modernising its armed forces no one would mind. It is the context that sets off alarms. Bosnia is in political turmoil again, and Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader, suggested on October 14th that if his part of Bosnia seceded and violence were to follow, Russia would step in to defend it. Serbia’s government-controlled tabloids constantly proclaim that war with the Kosovo Albanians or the Croats is imminent. In October, following a clash between Kosovo Serbs and the Kosovo police, Serbia’s imaginative tabloids linked the presence of British Gurkha troops to the violence.

At the same time nationalists, including Serbia’s minister of the interior, talk about the creation of a “Serbian World”, which many in Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia fear is code for a Greater Serbia that might swallow them up. Mr Vucic dismisses that as “propaganda”. He says that all the neighbours know that rearmament is “not against them”.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, says that the real significance of the country’s rearming is political rather than military. Showy arms deals impress Mr Vucic’s supporters, who tend to hold the armed forces in high esteem.

But Serbia is effectively surrounded by NATO (see map). With a big alliance shielding its small neighbours, Serbia is highly unlikely to send its soldiers into action in the forseeable future. Indeed, Serbia has excellent (if discreet) relations with NATO, and America trains Serbian troops. Having a strong army means that big powers treat you with respect, says Mr Vuksanovic. And if, “God forbid”, the regional status quo were to break down, then “if we can inflict damage on our hypothetical opponents, they will perhaps be more accommodating with us at the negotiating table.” ■

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline "A Balkans arms race"