Dušan Janjić,: Preventing structural destabilization of Serbia

dtt-net.com

[Opinion]: Preventing structural destabilization of Serbia

13–16 minutes

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"I am deeply convinced that the window for a peaceful resolution of Serbia's crisis is closing, and that timely preventive measures can avoid violence and armed conflict"

 By Dušan Janjić,

Belgrade, 14 August 2025, dtt-net.com / peacefare.net – The Non-Paper "Report on the State and Threats to Human Security, Human Rights, and Freedoms in the Republic of Serbia is intended for domestic and international social, business, political, and other stakeholders whose actions influence the course of the ongoing crisis in Serbia.

The Non-Paper

The document is based on available information regarding the severity of the crisis, the state of security in the country, and political will, preparedness, and capacity of various actors to help preserve peace and stabilize the situation.

A. Serbia Facing Structural Destabilization

Political and social crises, coupled with growing security instability, have come to dominate everyday life in Serbia. The government's response has included measures reminiscent of a state of emergency and a creeping coup, raising the risk of further escalation.

President Aleksandar Vučić remains one of the most influential actors in this crisis. He has consolidated control over the media, key budgetary and investment decisions, and the management of the Serbian government, particularly its diplomacy, the military, and the police. The president is using this authority to advance the values and interests of a single segment of society and to build the Movement for the Defense of the State. His conduct violates both the letter and the spirit of the Constitution and the Law on the President, which define the president's primary duty as safeguarding the unity of the state.

Public protests and widespread sentiment challenge the legitimacy of such conduct, raising calls for current president's resignation or impeachment, and for extraordinary presidential elections. There is an emphasized need to undertake appropriate activities to strengthen political will and reach a political agreement on the conditions for electoral verification of the government.

B. Activities and Mechanism for a Peaceful Exit from the Crisis

B.1 Measures for De-escalating Threats to Human Security

• Independent Expert Commission: Establish a body to monitor and report on social conditions and security trends, and propose measures for de-escalating threats to human security, human rights, and freedoms. The Commission should cooperate with domestic and international experts, institutions, and organizations, supporting the work of an Ad Hoc Mechanism for Facilitating a Peaceful Exit from the Crisis.
• Countering advocacy of intolerance, violence, and extremism: All competent institutions must take lawful measures to suppress advocacy of intolerance, hatred, and extremism; to stop the increase in police violence; and to prevent the abuse of prosecutorial and judicial functions, including misdemeanour courts.
• Role of the President and National Security Council: Adopt measures to stop the increase of police violence and torture. Take measures to dismantle para-police groups and stop their activities and violence —especially those supported by the ruling parties, funded through misuse of public resources or illicit means, supported by the police, and tolerated by parts of the judiciary.
• Role of the Supreme Public Prosecutor's Office: Fulfil legal obligations to combat extremist and para-police activities, especially those connected to political parties, public officials, and organized crime.
• Parliamentary and institutional oversight: Activate existing mechanisms for parliamentary and other forms of public oversight over the security and intelligence community in Serbia, especially the police and the Security Intelligence Agency (BIA).
• Assessment of institutions of special public importance: Urgently review whether the key institutions— Constitutional Court, Anti-Corruption Agency, Commissioner for Information of Public Importance and Personal Data Protection, and Protector of Citizens—are fulfilling their constitutional and legal mandates and effectively contributing to the protection of human security, rights, and freedoms in Serbia.
• National Security Agency: Consider establishing an agency legally designated as one of key actors in upholding the rule of law, responsible for providing critical security and defence information to authorized institutions, countering cyber and communications threats, protecting individuals and facilities, safeguarding the national currency and payment systems, and leading or assisting in investigations into war crimes, terrorism, and politically motivated murders.
• Police reorganization: Create legal and operational conditions to reorganize the police into a single structure with a unified chain of command and management.

B.2 Roundtable on Stabilizing the Situation in Serbia

The Roundtable on Stabilizing the Situation in Serbia is an ad hoc mechanism that enables reaching a political agreement to overcome the current legitimacy crisis and irregularities in the work of the National Assembly of Serbia, Assembly of AP Vojvodina, city and municipality assemblies, as well as local community councils throughout Serbia.

Rationale:

• Deep political and social divisions;
• High public distrust in authorities;
• Conflict between the opposition and the government;
• Limited crisis capacity management on both sides;
• Lack of acceptable institutional framework for dialogue;
• Risk of radicalization, parallel institutions, and violent resistance;
• Infiltration of para-state structures and organized crime into state institutions, especially in the security and intelligence sector.

Goals:

• Reach political agreement on conditions for fair and democratic elections;
• Ensure peaceful, democratic resolution of the political and security crisis;
• Establish basic rules and mechanisms to reduce tensions and security risks.

Participants:

• Representatives of protesting citizens, civic initiatives, student, professional, local, and other movements with significant public support;
• Parliamentary political parties.

Moderation:

• Moderator of the Roundtable may be an individual or a collective body, either a Serbian citizen and/or a representative of the international community (the Quint is recommended).
• Moderator selection requires unanimous approval of all participants.

Expected outcome:

• Consensus on creating conditions for free and fair elections, including:
• Integrity of voter register and prevention of biometric and data abuse;
• Independent monitoring of the activities of the Republic Data Center;
• Decision on the electoral system model (majority or proportional);
• Introducing larger number of electoral districts;
• Direct voting procedures and ballot security;
• Balanced regional and minority representation;
• Financing of political parties and campaigns.

Recommendations:

• The National Assembly elected in early elections should serve as a constituent assembly;
• It is necessary to set a specific timeframe for the transitional period. For the president and the constituent assembly, this period should be shorter than the term established by law for those elected in regular elections;
• Reaching an agreement on the schedule for holding extraordinary elections at all levels.

C. Role of the President in Serbia's Stabilization

Given the serious security challenges facing Serbia and the need to prevent further destabilization, particular focus is on the role of the president, National Security Council, and the security and intelligence community in Serbia.

Public debate frequently raises the question: Who will replace Vučić? This Non-Paper does not answer this question but stresses the need for electoral change of this function and outlines tasks for the president to ensure a peaceful, democratic transfer of power and stabilization in the country.

It is the Responsibility of the President of the Republic of Serbia to:

• Initiate measures to guarantee the property rights of citizens, public and state property, as well as the property of companies and cooperatives, legacies, and more; promote an effective restitution process to return unjustly taken property to its rightful owners.
• Support the creation of an environment fostering business, political, and social cooperation, respect for the rule of law, institutional recovery, and solidarity.
• Encourage dialogue on Serbia's Reform and Sustainable Development Strategy for the coming decade, involving the businesses community, experts, civil society, and international partners.
• Support opening Serbia to multinational corporations that contribute to sustainable development, while respecting the interests and needs of domestic economy and the public, especially in strategic sectors, such as, food production, water management, mining and processing of rare metals, energy, and human security.
• The Law on the President and other related laws should clearly define the President's rights, duties, and responsibilities to uphold the Constitution, laws, and strategic documents essential for Serbia's sustainable development, stability, security, and defense. The President must adhere to these responsibilities when deciding on granting a mandate to form the government, approving laws, and appointing Constitutional Court judges and diplomatic representatives.
• When signing decrees promulgating laws, the President is obliged to provide explanations for the decision to give consent and point out appropriate and necessary amendments to the law and Constitution.
• Contribute to strengthening judicial independence; eliminate the practice of protecting acquired privileges and monopolies; prevent the National Assembly from acting as a "party personnel filter" in the judiciary.
• Provide support to judicial and investigative authorities in combating corruption, organized crime, and terrorism, directly and/or through the National Security Council. 
• Initiate comprehensive monitoring, review, and reporting on cooperation with foreign intelligence services; initiate ending the practice of involving BIA and VOA members in prosecutorial teams and overseeing prosecution work; initiate removing VOA's influence over the War Crimes Prosecutor's Office.
• In carrying out duties of appointments and awards, the President is obliged to respect and is accountable for the integrity of the individuals being appointed or honored.
• Respects diversity and promotes the integrative policies. Given the importance of interethnic relations for Serbia's development, stability, and security, and considering the prolonged inactivity of the National Council for National Minorities, the President of the Republic should be legally authorized to chair this Council.

D. Urgent Measures

The Law on the President of the Republic should clearly define, in line with the Constitution and other laws, the criteria for granting amnesty and pardon, along with the President's accountability for failing to adhere to these criteria.

It is necessary to examine the President's past actions in relation to sustainable development issues, with an immediate focus on halting the President's involvement in bodies and institutions that approve major capital investment projects.

It is necessary to ensure adequate infrastructure and human resources to enable effective performance of the President's public duties. To this end, a review of the legal status and responsibilities of the National Security Council is required, recognizing it as a key body for improving security conditions and guiding the activities of the security and intelligence community.

Members of the National Security Council can only be worthy citizens of Serbia, with proven qualifications and experience in the fields of strategic planning and directing security development in all its aspects.

The Council should be chaired by the President of the Republic and/or the Security Adviser to the Republic of Serbia.

The current Bureau for Coordination of Security Services should be replaced by a Bureau for Coordination of Activities of the Intelligence and Security Community. Its members should be representatives from the National Assembly, the Government of Serbia, and the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, European Integration, Internal Affairs, and Defense. The existing Bureau for Coordination of Security Services should be transformed into a Coordinating Body of the Intelligence and Security Community, composed of the heads of security and intelligence agencies.

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The author is founder and President of the Belgrade-based Executive Board of Forum for Ethnic Relations. He specializes in Sociology of Nationalism; Ethnicity; Ethnic Conflicts and their Resolution; Human and Minorities Rights; Political Movements and Ideologies; Peace Making and Peace Building.

This opinion was first published at peacefare.net website.             

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of dtt-net.com.

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thepavlovictoday.com

Trump Tells President Vucic He Wants to Make a Trade Deal

Ksenija Pavlovic McAteer

8–10 minutes

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President Donald Trump is turning his trade deal attention to Serbia. In a letter obtained by The Pavlovic Today, the president says he is ready to strike a trade deal or impose a 35% tariff on all Serbian imports to the U.S. starting Aug. 1, 2025. But, like in all things Trump, here's the twist: the tariff threat is really a deal offer — New York-style.

THE ASK — Open your markets. Drop the trade barriers. Get reciprocal. Or the tariffs go into effect.

In the letter, sent from the White House to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Monday, Trump lays it out:

"It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship, and the fact that the United States of America has agreed to continue working with Serbia, despite having a significant Trade Deficit with your great Country."

Letter from Donald Trump to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic proposing a new Trump Serbia trade deal.

WHY THE TRUMP SERBIA TRADE DEAL MATTERS? — The higher tariffs global policy will begin Aug. 1, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said yesterday, adding that Trump is "setting the rates and the deals right now."

This is part of a broader "letter-or-trade-deal" push from Trump, who previewed the move yesterday during the press gaggle  at Morristown Municipal Airport  while standing next to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick.

"It could be 12, maybe 15," Trump said about the wave of trade letters going out this week. "You know, Secretary of Commerce right here, I guess Howard I would say it could be maybe as many as could be."

President Donald J. Trump, joined by Vice President Mike Pence, participates in a signing ceremony with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti Friday, Sept. 4, 2020, in the Oval Office of the White House. ( Photo: D. Myles Cullen)

Serbia, we're told, is in the first batch — signaling its top priority for Trump. More letters to other countries are coming later in the week.

"A couple" are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. "And we've made deals also," Trump added. "So we can have a combination of letters, and some deals have been made."

THE FINE PRINT — Trump's letter says the U.S.-Serbia relationship has been "far from Reciprocal," and points to "longterm, and very persistent, Trade Deficits engendered by Serbia's Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers."

And here's the warning:

"Starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge Serbia a Tariff of only 35% on any and all Serbian products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs. Goods transshipped to evade a higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff."

BUT WAIT — THERE'S A LOOPHOLE — Trump is offering Serbia a deal:

In his letter, Trump urges Vucic to "please understand" that the 35% tariff—if the deal falls through—is "far less" than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit the United States has with Serbia.

"There will be no Tariff if Serbia, or companies within your Country, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States and, in fact, we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely — In other words, in a matter of weeks."

Trump also included a standard line he's used before with countries like the U.K. and China. Retaliate? That'll cost you.

"Whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 35% that we charge."

THEN, THE UPDATE HAPPENED— Speaking from the White House just moments after the letter was sent, President Trump clarified that the Trump tariff letters delivered to countries including Serbia are "more or less final offers" — but not without room for negotiation.

"Some of them wanted to make a deal and wanted to be fair," Trump said. "Others, perhaps, got a little bit spoiled."

Asked if the Aug. 1 tariff date is firm, Trump replied:

"I would say firm but not 100% firm. If they call up and say we'd like to do something a different way, we're going to be open to that."

THE BIGGER PICTURE — Trump has been framing his tariff agenda as a national security issue since the day he announced his global policy shift.

"This Deficit is a major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!"

THE TAKEAWAY — Yet despite the tough talk about tariffs, reciprocation and retaliation, Trump remains, at his core, the dealmaker. That includes Howard Lutnick, who, as Trump often notes, "barely sleeps" as he hustles to finalize trade deals with multiple countries.

Sec. Bessent, Lutnick, and Charles { Photo credit: The White House via Flickr]

Trump's letter ends not with a threat but with a teaser:

"If you wish to open your heretofore closed Trading Markets to the United States, and eliminate your Tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter."

And finally, the flourish:

"You will never be disappointed with The United States of America."

***

This article has been updated to include President Trump's latest comments.

 

tanjug.rs

Vucic: Usain Bolt first official ambassador of EXPO 2027 Belgrade

Tanjug

14–18 minutes

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BELGRADE - Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Tuesday unveiled former Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt as the first official ambassador of EXPO 2027 Belgrade.

Bolt is an eight-time Olympic gold medalist and the world record holder in 100 metres, 200 metres, and 4×100 metres relay.

The EXPO will be the largest event in the world in 2027, Vucic said, adding that, to date, 115 countries had confirmed their participation.

"Bolt holds the 100 m record with 9.58 s. I am not sure anyone will ever be able to run faster. Whatever the advances of technology, training and training methodology may be, the man is simply the best ever, the fastest ever, and that is it," Vucic said at the Palace of Serbia after a meeting with Bolt.

"There were never any limits for Bolt," Vucic said, adding that Belgrade would break the record when it comes to specialised EXPOs.

"Usain Bolt, the fastest man ever, is the brand ambassador of the EXPO and Serbia. We have agreed to have several brand ambassadors. We want the expo to be the largest event in the world and, in 2027, it will be."

Vucic said that the current record number of participants in specialised EXPOs was 117.

"We expect to have more than 135 participant countries, to break all records and be by far the best of all times, and become hard to beat, just like Usain Bolt is hard to beat. For us, it is extremely important to improve the visibility of the EXPO itself so that people can see how and to what extent Serbia is progressing," Vucic said.

 

onemileatatime.com

Air Serbia Plans Miami Flights, And Maybe Toronto Flights

Ben Schlappig

5–6 minutes

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Air Serbia's CEO is once again going on record about the next destinations in North America that the airline is considering, and I'm particularly happy about the frontrunner…

Air Serbia plans North America expansion in near future

Air Serbia CEO Jiri Marek did an interview with Business Focus, where he was asked about the carrier's growth plans in North America. For context, Air Serbia's long haul fleet currently consists of four Airbus A330s, and long haul destinations include Chicago (ORD), New York (JFK), Guangzhou (CAN), and Shanghai (PVG).

Here was his answer about where in North America Air Serbia is looking to expand to next:

Historically, our US flights have been driven by diaspora demand from the former Yugoslavia. Post-COVID, they have also grown in popularity with tourists from both sides. Now, we are expanding connectivity through a codeshare with JetBlue and cooperation with American Airlines, extending our network beyond New York and Chicago to the rest of the US.

Our next logical US destination is Miami. In North America, we are also considering Toronto, though its high seasonality and diaspora-driven demand make it less stable than JFK or Chicago, which have additionally also stronger cargo potential as another differentiating factor.

Air Serbia is considering Miami and Toronto flights

This isn't the first time the company has floated the concept of service to Miami (MIA) or Toronto (YYZ). There has been talk of Toronto service dating back to 2018 (when Pearson Airport officials claimed the parties were in "advanced talks"), while Miami was mentioned in 2024, when the company claimed it would launch those flights in 2025.

As someone who lives in Miami, I'd of course be delighted to see Air Serbia fly here, since more European links are always useful. After Chicago and New York (which are already served), Miami has the next highest demand in the United States for Belgrade flights. Miami is also great in terms of seasonality, since it has strong demand in winter.

For that matter, Air Serbia is uniquely positioned, since it has access to both the European Union and Russia. South Florida has a significant Russian population, so I'm sure Air Serbia would get a lot of business from that.

Any expansion will require more aircraft, or at least more availability from existing aircraft, so it's anyone's guess when this service actually launches. We know that Air Serbia is looking to double its A330 fleet in the coming years, to eight aircraft.

Air Serbia's A330 business class

Air Serbia deserves credit for its impressive success

Air Serbia is government owned, which all too often seems to be a curse for airlines, and a recipe for failure. Heck, keep in mind that in 2013, Etihad bought a 49% stake in Air Serbia, but then abandoned the airline, leaving the government in full control.

I've gotta say, Air Serbia's management has done a phenomenal job leading the airline. Air Serbia has achieved a small profit in both 2023 and 2024. Most importantly for a government owned airline, it has created jobs and increased connectivity to the country, which is the real value in a national airline.

Now, admittedly one wonders about some of the math when the government is the main shareholder, but I'd argue the airline has been going about things exactly right. Air Serbia has been taking advantage of its advantageous geography to grow slowly and steadily.

Unlike so many other government owned airlines, the airline hasn't been run based on prestige, or based on flying the newest planes. Quite to the contrary, all of Serbia's A330s are used, and previously flew for other airlines.

Air Serbia also benefits from the current Russia situation, since Air Serbia has access to both the European Union and Russia. When you combine that with the general affordability of Serbia (and therefore low operating costs), there's no reason the airline can't continue to grow and be successful, and become on the biggest players in Eastern Europe.

I'm impressed by Air Serbia's success and growth

Bottom line

Air Serbia is looking at some new destinations in North America. Miami seems to be at the top of the list, while Toronto continues to be under consideration, though it doesn't sound like much progress has been made there. Air Serbia has been growing slowly but steadily, so hopefully we see this service launch in the near future.

What do you make of Air Serbia planning on launching Miami flights, and maybe Toronto flights?

 

consortiumnews.com

DIANA JOHNSTONE: Serbia's Organized Chaos

21–26 minutes

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Serbia has been racked for months by disruptive protests largely attributed to students, opposition leaders and university authorities. Are these organic protests?

Anti-government protest in Belgrade, Slavija Square, Dec. 22, 2024. (Stefan Miljuš /Wikimedia Commons/ Public Domain)

By Diana Johnstone
Special to Consortium News

Serbia is a small country which used to be a favorite of Western Allied powers like France and Britain for its heroic resistance to Austrian and German invasion in two world wars. 

They liked it so much that in redrawing European boundaries at Versailles in 1918, they enlarged it into the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes which later became Yugoslavia.

Some Serb leaders at the time felt that this was too much, but at the time, Croat and Slovene leaders were glad to leave the Austro-Hungarian Empire and join the winning side. 

All this changed abruptly in the 1990s. Germany had been reunited and began to drop its humble post-World War II foreign policy.  With German support and encouragement, the Yugoslav republics (states) of Slovenia and Croatia declared their independence, with the intention of joining the club of the rich: the European Union.

This shift enabled the two richest Yugoslav states to stop paying development funds for poorer regions such as Kosovo and to receive development funds from the EU.  The debt crisis of the 1970s had strained relations among the republics.  

But according to the secessionists, their sole motivation was to escape from "Serbian nationalism."  A great champion of this interpretation was the late Otto von Habsburg, an influential member of the European Parliament. As heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, dismantled as a result of World War I, he naturally held a personal grudge against Serbia.

As the Yugoslav disintegration grew confused and violent, Western media and government enthusiastically echoed the Habsburg line, not as such, but as defense of Western values and self-determination.

Western media put all the blame for everything on the Serbs, evoking the inevitable Hitler analogy to describe Serbia's besieged leader, Slobodan Milosevic, as a "dictator" and to liken his failing efforts to keep Yugoslavia together with the Third Reich's massive invasion of the rest of Europe. 

"Heroic little Serbia" was transformed into the Pariah of the Western World.

A Nation in Limbo

The concrete result of the 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia was to transform the "defensive" alliance into an aggressive force; to deliver the historic Serbian province of Kosovo to armed ethnic Albanians; and to build an enormous U.S. military base in the province. 

But NATO nations framed it as conspiratorial to say that such were the aims of the NATO bombing. No, the official purpose was "the right to intervene" on grounds of human rights, to "save the Kosovars" from a "genocide" that was never a real possibility. That's what everyone in the West has been told, over and over.

NATOland and "Western values" do not — not any longer — dominate the whole world. But Serbia is situated, geographically and psychologically, in the West. 

Serbia was part of Yugoslavia,  an independent, nonaligned socialist country, not part of the Soviet bloc.  But Serbs have an historic friendship with Russia, as fellow Orthodox Christians, dating back to Serbia's struggle to free itself from the Ottoman Empire. Serbs are in fact torn between, or attached to, both East and West.

They are in a perfect situation to be friends with everyone, which is what the current government in Belgrade of President Alexander Vucic is trying to do.

From its history and natural inclinations, Serbia should be a bridge between East and West.

 Vucic with journalists during the 2018 European People's Party Congress in Helsinki. (European People's Party /Wikimedia Commons /CC BY 2.0)

Vucic was elected president of Serbia in 2017 and he and his Serbian Progressive Party have won a number of elections since by wide majorities. His economic development policies have made a bad situation better.

After Western companies took over Serbian industries only to shut them down, Vucic has welcomed Chinese investments which are reviving Serbian industrial production and mining. The economic growth rate accelerated to a comfortable 3.9 percent in 2024. Higher education for students who pass entrance exams is free, and Serbian universities enjoy high international ratings.  

In contrast to its neighbors, Serbs are staying in their native land, while others are leaving. (Bosnia Herzegovina has lost half of its population to emigration, relatively prosperous Montenegro 24.4 percent, North Macedonia 31.6 percent and Serbia only 7 percent, indicating that life prospects there are relatively promising.)

Serbia's relations with China have long been friendly and profitable. Vucic's foreign policy tries to balance between East and West, but the rise in hostility between the EU and Russia makes this difficult.

But the same Western supremacists who destroyed the natural "bridge" function of Ukraine by insisting on its "NATO destiny" are working to subvert all potential bridges to Russia — distant Georgia, Moldova and nearby Serbia. 

As an applicant to join the European Union, Serbia is kept under constant observation to see whether it is adapting to EU standards, economic and political. To satisfy Brussels, Vucic has supplied weapons to Ukraine but refuses to enforce sanctions against Russia, which provides Serbia with gas.

He has rejected EU demands to recognize the independence of Kosovo, as any Serbian leader must do to remain in office until tomorrow. But his domestic critics consider him not tough enough.

EU Parliament on Jan. 19, 2011, the day members approved a reform package, the EU-Serbia Stabilisation and Association Agreement, designed to move the country toward EU membership. (European Parliament/Flickr/ CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Vucic defied EU threats by flying to Moscow to attend the May 9 ceremonies celebrating the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany's war of conquest.  Otherwise, he would have been hotly condemned at home for slavish subservience to the EU.  Instead, his enemies can cry "Putin's puppet."

Josip Tito's policy of nonalignment was a great success and Vucic appears to emulate the former Yugoslavian leader's approach. But his balancing act exposes him to criticism from both sides.

Protests Against…Whatever

Strangely, for months Serbia has been rocked by massive student protests and blockades, not over foreign policy or over any specific government policies, but primarily in response to tragic events with no obvious political significance.

In Belgrade on May 3, 2023, a 13-year-old boy armed with pistols and Molotov cocktails attacked his school, killing eight children and a security guard. The under-age shooter was eventually sent to a psychiatric hospital and the parents were charged.

On the evening of the very next day a 20-year-old man drove through two villages in central Serbia firing an automatic assault rifle, killing nine people and wounding 12 others.  He fled but was caught and eventually sentenced to 20 years.

This was shocking in a country where gun ownership is high but shooting incidents rare. Large protest demonstrations were held in major cities for several months. Opposition leaders created a protest movement "Serbia Against Violence" which blamed Vucic for creating "an atmosphere" responsible for the killings.

This is surely an exaggeration. In fact, police repression in Serbia is relatively mild, and Vucic can hardly be blamed for the mood of violence that prevails in the world today. Former Prime Minister Ana Brnabic also risked exaggeration by claiming that the protests were "fueled by foreign intelligence services."

Candidates for "Serbia Against Violence" won 24 percent of the vote in parliamentary elections on Dec. 17, 2023, just half the 48 percent won by the coalition supported by Vucic. 

Serbia Against Violence, or SPN, coalition representatives in front of the National Assembly of Serbia on Nov. 3, 2023. (Wikimedia Commons/CC BY 3.0)

In February 2024, a delegation headed by Marinika Tepic of "Serbia Against Violence" and Radomir Lazovic of the "Serbian Green-Left Front" went to Strasbourg to complain to the European Parliament that the elections had been stolen.  

Enjoying minimal legislative power, the European Parliament asserts itself mainly by adopting virtuous resolutions condemning human rights violations in foreign countries on the basis of often unverified complaints.

As was to be expected, by an overwhelming vote of 461 to 52 the European Parliament promptly adopted a strong resolution calling for an international investigation into "election irregularities" and threatening to stop EU funding. The main complaint was that by campaigning, President Vucic had unfairly influenced voters.

Marinika Tepic declared to Politico that "if something doesn't change now, we will completely slide into a dictatorship." 

EU's Missionary Work

Protests against recognizing the December 2023 elections reached such proportions that many feared a replay of the 2014 Maidan demonstrations that led to war in Ukraine. 

Pavle Cicvaric, who had learned organizing skills in numerous programs and workshops funded by Western foundations, led the student protests in Belgrade. The young leader's parents are both deeply involved in the work of NGOs. 

His mother, Dr. Jelena Žunic Cicvaric, is project coordinator of the NGO "Regional EU Resource Center for Civil Society in Serbia," a key channel for the redistribution of European Union funds, allocated only to those actively working on raising awareness of "European values."

His father, Radovan Cicvaric, a long-time politician campaigning for Euro-integration, is also promoting "European values" as director of the NGO Užice Center for Child Rights (UCPD) founded in 1998. 

While the UCPD focuses on children, another influential NGO, the Belgrade Open School (BOS), founded in 1993, sponsors programs for students and young professionals, including "training of social change agents."

Both are part of the "Youth Umbrella Organization of Serbia" which receives significant funds from international donors such as USAID, the Soros' Open Society Foundation, and various European Union programs. 

They organize workshops, training sessions, and projects aimed at strengthening the capacities of local NGOs and promoting European values. "Transition" countries applying for EU membership must listen to instructions on how to be worthy Europeans. 

This educational task is undertaken by the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB), a joint initiative of European foundations that envisions, runs and supports initiatives aimed at strengthening democracy and fostering European integration. 

Significantly, the EFB is sponsoring a "Joint History Project" to produce and spread a unified version of regional history, with the kind support of the German Foreign Office.  

The Balkan Trust for Democracy (BTD) is a foundation based in Belgrade. It was founded in March 2003 by the German Marshall Fund, USAID, and the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation. Other donors include the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Tipping Point Foundation, Robert Bosch Foundation, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, and the foreign affairs ministries of Denmark and Greece. The BTD supports grant donation, policy dialogue, and leadership development. 

If you want to be a leader, you know where to go.

It is hard to imagine that these Western-financed organizations have not contributed to the zeal and skill of Serbian student protesters.

A Deadly Collapse

Novi Sad is Serbia's second-largest city, a major stop on the new high speed railway route between Belgrade and Budapest being rebuilt with Chinese aid. 

As part of this project, Novi Sad's 60-year old modernistic railroad station was recently renovated, leaving in place a long concrete canopy across its entrance side. On the morning of Nov. 1, 2024, the concrete canopy suddenly collapsed, killing a total of 16 people.

The Serbian government declared a nation-wide day of mourning, a number of officials resigned, including the Serbian construction minister and the mayor of Novi Sad. Investigations of the causes are continuing.  

Portion of the canopy of the main railway station in Novi Sad, Serbia, that collapsed onto people walking and sitting underneath on Nov. 1, 2024. (Mishyac /Wikimedia Commons/ CC0)

For the student activists, the collapse was seen as clear proof of corruption, not only in construction work on the station but throughout society. Declaring that what happened in Novi Sad is proof that Serbia is overwhelmed by crime, violence, corruption and despair, the students have given themselves the task of changing this "unbearable social reality" to build a new Serbia. 

An apparently leaderless movement organizes student plenums which privately decide by consensus what to do next. They have shut down university faculties and schools, preventing students from attending classes for months.

Students who want to attend classes are treated like traitors. Even hospitals have been blockaded. It has been observed that the activist students tend to come from well-to-do families and are not joined by working class youth.  It is an elite revolt calling for equality.  

Students blocking traffic are protected by police. The government clearly suspects provocation and has been avoiding the sort of violent repression used by the French government of Emmanuel Macron to put down the Yellow Vests movement.  

Transition to What?

March during the general strike in Belgrade on Jan, 24, 2025. The banner in the foreground says "Only Student Save the Serbs," a play on the national slogan "Only Unity Saves the Serbs." (SergioOren / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0)

Serbian students under 26 were not born when NATO bombed Serbia.  

Serbian youth has grown up torn between the scars of the NATO bombing and the persistent dominant Western view of Serbs as the guilty party for the destruction of Yugoslavia.  No wonder that this creates some confusion.

It is understandable that a portion of middle class Serbian, urban youth find it unbearable to be excluded from "the West" by Serbia's imposed Pariah status.

Youth can be very conformist in their rebelliousness, seeking to join together in defiance of their elders. However confused the West may be, it still excels most in selling itself as something marvelous. 

A significant way it does this is through its massive web of non-governmental organizations. 

In April, EU auditors issued a report noting a "lack of transparency" in granting some 4.8 billion euros to some 5,000 NGOs during the 2021-2023 period, in addition to Member State grants of some 2.6 billion euros to around 7,500 NGOs from EU funding sources.  

It is not clear which countries benefited, but Marta Kos, the Slovenian EU commissioner for enlargement, has mentioned Serbia. 

Kos during confirmation hearings as European commissioner for enlargement, Nov. 7, 2024. (CC-BY-4.0: © European Union 2024– Source: EP)

In a March 28 interview with Slovenian RTV, Kos rejected as "unacceptable" suggestions by President Vucic that EU-funded NGOs are encouraging student protests aimed to overthrow him. Kos nevertheless noted that she was "much more in contact with the NGOs I met in Brussels than with the Serbian government or its president." 

She said:

"Many NGOs in Serbia would not survive without our support, and it is precisely because of the exceptional importance of NGOs that I have decided to allocate an additional €16 million to them for the period from this year until the end of 2027."

"Without the participation of civil society, there can be no enlargement process," Kos said, adding that she trusts the Serbian people to "guide their politicians so that Serbia can become a member of the European Union." Kos feels qualified to provide guidance. 

Aleksander Vulin is a prominent Socialist who has held various ministerial posts.  But no more.  "I hope that Mr. Vulin will not be a member of the new government, because those who act in an anti-European manner cannot lead Serbia into the EU," said Kos. She got her way. 

Among his sins, Vulin favors joining BRICS and had called for a law revealing NGO financing by foreign governments. (When Georgia adopted such a law, EU leaders mobilized to stop it, but failed.)  

On the other hand, Vucic defied dire threats by the EU against daring to attend the May 9 celebrations of the Allied Victory over Nazi Germany. He flew around Baltic States blocking his flight and showed up in Moscow, along with the courageous Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico.

 Vucic in Moscow on May 9, on his way to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Ramil Sitdikov, RIA Novosti, Presidet of Russia)

Such is the Vucic balancing act. As a result, Vucic is denounced as "pro-Putin" in Brussels while his domestic adversaries denounce him for weakly giving in to EU demands.

The student protesters are still more ambiguous.

They clearly don't want to give credence to government accusations that they are manipulated by EU NGOs. The EU flag has been tacitly banned from the huge student demonstrations, with only Serbian flags being waved, as if to demonstrate national independence. 

However, this spring a contingent of student protesters created a spectacle by setting out to take their grievances to EU institutions, ostensibly on bicycles.  They were warmly welcomed as they complained that everything in Serbia was absolutely awful. 

On May 6, Serbia's leading newspaper Politika reported that visiting Serbian blockaders in the European Parliament gallery listened meekly as they were lectured by a Croatian nationalist, Steven Nikola Bartulica, who told them that "European values mean also a confession of guilt for everything Serbia did to Croatia." 

(In the summer of 1995, Croatia expelled about 200,000 Serbs from their homes in the Krajina region of Croatia, in the largest ethnic cleansing of the Yugoslav wars.) 

Bartulica claimed Serbia was not a European-style liberal democracy and would not be normalized until it accepted paying reparations to Croatia.

Members of the European Parliament expressed satisfaction that the students had chosen "Europe" against Russia, and called for overthrowing Vucic and Fico for having gone to Moscow.

At home, however, the protest demonstrations seem to be losing momentum, to the extent that students have stopped demanding everything! now! and are retreating to the demand for elections.

Boosted by his trip to Moscow, where his delegation held serious talks with President Vladimir Putin, Vucic held a patriotic rally in the city of Nis where he declared that the students' demands are over and do not interest him any more. He dismissed the blockaders as a very loud minority of mobbing bullies terrorizing the majority of citizens who want peace, work and unity. 

By suddenly demanding snap elections, he assumed that they were simply seeking another opportunity for violent outbursts, since elections will always be declared stolen by the opposition.  Elections will be held normally in a year or so, he said.  

On May 22, Belgrade received a visit from Kaja Kallas, an Estonian chosen by Ursula von der Leyen to be high representative of the EU for foreign affairs.  Having no diplomatic experience, Kallas' most visible qualifications are being a young woman with an unsurpassed hatred of Russia.

Kallas, center, EU high representative and vice president of the European Commission, at a NATO meeting in Brussels on April 4. (NATO /Flickr/ CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

While in Belgrade, the EU's top diplomat met, in a strange twist, with the president and the prime minister to tell them what to do.  But she met  with representatives of student protesters to listen to what they had to say. 

She praised her meetings with "civil society" and youth activists. "I heard their call and their aspirations – for fairness, for accountability so that Serbia can fulfill its full potential," she said. "Their energy is needed to find a way forward." 

In contrast, Kallas scolded Vucic for meeting Putin in Moscow. Serbia's future acceptance into the EU, she stressed, depends on the country's "strategic choice" between East and West.

Putin, by contrast, accepts Vucic's balancing act and has no objection to Serbia joining the EU. Variety is consistent with a multipolar world. But for the West, "you are with us or against us." Between East and West, there are no bridges allowed.   

Perplexity & Fear

In Belgrade, some people think the protests are petering out. Perhaps, but in the past they have died down only to revive over some incident. Since the causes are unclear, so are the solutions. 

The difficulty, Dragan Pavlovic, a Serbian commentator, told me is that the protests are expressed in "very general demands for a 'better life,' which obviously does not offer any concrete basis for understanding what is essentially wanted or what should be done to calm the protests." Such demands can go on forever. 

"It is probably an orchestrated, mass hysteria, caused by the nuclear threat, the genocide in Gaza, the prolongation of the crisis in Kosovo and the actions of non-governmental organizations," he suggests. 

Journalist and writer Mara Knezevic Kern considers it impossible to understand these incredible events. "I do not believe that it is possible to describe this new variant of an attack on the state — it has not happened anywhere else yet." In the 1990s, Yugoslavia served as an experimental laboratory for regime change.  Many fear that this is happening again, in Serbia.

Diana Johnstone was press secretary of the Green Group in the European Parliament from 1989 to 1996. In her latest book, Circle in the Darkness: Memoirs of a World Watcher (Clarity Press, 2020), she recounts key episodes in the transformation of the German Green Party from a peace to a war party. Her other books include Fools' Crusade: Yugoslavia, NATO and Western Delusions (Pluto/Monthly Review) and in co-authorship with her father, Paul H. Johnstone, From MAD to Madness: Inside Pentagon Nuclear War Planning (Clarity Press). She can be reached at diana.johnstone@wanadoo.fr

The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.

 

intellinews.com

Serbia negotiates new long-term gas deal with Russia

By Tatyana Kekic in Belgrade May 19, 2025

4–5 minutes

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Serbia will continue negotiations this week with Russia's Gazprom on a new long-term gas agreement, the general director of Srbijagas, Dusan Batajtovic, said on May 18 during a guest appearance on TV Prva.

The talks, aimed at securing a new long-term supply arrangement, come as the current gas contract between Serbia and Russia is due to expire on May 31.

"The deadline of the contract is now being negotiated," said Bajatovic during an interview with TV Prva on May 18. "I hope that the final agreement will be reached by May 31."

Discussions began earlier this month when Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic visited Moscow for the May 9 Victory Day parade, marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory in World War II. During the visit, Vucic held high-level talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, including preliminary negotiations on gas pricing.

"The first part (of the negotiations) was general, we understood who wanted what... We won't have a problem with quantities for sure; the only issue is the term of the contract, which will not be less than three years," Bajatovic said.

"We will have a capacity of 2.5bn cubic metres of gas per year, we reached a good price, but I am not sure now how much it will amount to according to the oil formula. We did not reach an agreement because we strive to reach an agreement that will be valid for ten years."

Serbia, an EU candidate country, has increased efforts to diversify its energy sources – securing alternative supplies, including from Azerbaijan – but still remains heavily dependent on Russian gas. The country currently pays $275 per 1,000 cubic metres, a figure significantly below European market rates.

The long-term nature of the proposed deal raises concerns about Serbia's energy security and relations with Brussels. The EU has announced plans to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027 in response to Russia's war in Ukraine. A long-term agreement with Moscow could expose Serbia to legal and political risks, including potential EU and US sanctions.

Serbia's sole oil company NIS, majority-owned by Gazprom and its subsidiary Gazprom Neft, already faces the threat of secondary sanctions from Washington. Maintaining a direct bilateral gas deal with Russia could deepen those vulnerabilities.

Bajatovic has acknowledged these risks but remains cautiously optimistic. "There is one very important question. Europe wants to ban Russian gas in 2027, but maybe there will be an agreement between the Russians and the Americans," he told RTS on May 13, suggesting that geopolitical shifts could alter Serbia's energy options.

Bajatovic said Serbia intends to preserve the interstate nature of the contract, bypassing intermediaries, but declined to disclose the final agreed price. A formal agreement is expected to be signed by the end of May.

 

thepeacemonger.substack.com

The Ukrainians failed to confront ultranationalists to secure peace in the Donbas

Ian Proud

14–18 minutes

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In a recent interview, Boris Johnson admitted that the Minsk 2 agreement fell apart because 'the Ukrainian nationalists couldn't accept the compromise' that President Zelensky wanted to agree with President Putin. It also failed because sanctions policy against Russia both disincentivized Ukrainian compliance, and actively incentivised Ukrainian non-compliance.

Claiming that Russia reneged on the Minsk Agreements has been a standard attack line from the west in the past, including from Johnson. Johnson has simply revealed what many already knew, that it was also wilfully inaccurate.

A lot of people talk about the so-called Minsk Agreements, but few understand the background. They refer collectively to three sets of peace proposals between June 2014 and February 2015, which culminated in the signature of the second Minsk agreement, commonly known as Minsk 2. They had several aims, including to end the fighting in the Donbas, the limitation on the use of heavy weapons by both sides and to seal Ukraine's border. Critically, all three proposals sought to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine by offering some form of devolution or special status to the separatist oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk.

It's important to state up front that the basis for the Minsk agreements was initiated by the Ukrainian side. After violence in the Donbas erupted in February 2014 following the deposal of former President Yanukovych, the separatist leaders in Luhansk and Donetsk orchestrated referenda on 11 May, which ruled in favour of self-rule.

These referenda voted in favour of separation from Kyiv but were roundly criticised as illegitimate. The Ukrainian armed forces went on the offensive in a so-called Anti-Terror Operation. However, on 21 June, President Petro Poroshenko advanced a peace plan that included creation of a military buffer zone on either side of the line of contact, the restoration of public services in Donetsk and Luhansk, an amnesty for separatists who had taken up arms.

Critically, the Ukrainian government advanced the notion that the two oblasts comprising the Donbas would be offered some form of special status. In addition to some form of self-rule, special status would also have afforded protection of the use of the Russian language. Special status would have kept Donetsk and Luhansk within the Ukrainian state.

This offer was welcomed by the Russian side and every indication at that time was that Russia's primary goal was the protection of the Russian speaking population in Ukraine, with no desire to incorporate the Donbas given the huge cost.

By the start of July, the OSCE monitoring mission was reporting on an intensified Ukrainian military operation against the separatists. 5 July is the first time the OSCE reports on the deaths of civilians caused by the military operations, including the death of a five year old girl. By 6 July, Ukrainian forces have recaptured the towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. They approach Donetsk city and a fierce battle erupts around the airport which is destroyed. Fighting then breaks out on the outskirts of Luhansk city.

By mid-July heavy military equipment is being moved into the Donbas from Russia, to resupply the separatists. On 17 July amid heavy fighting, flight MH17 is downed with the deaths of all 298 persons on board.

Throughout this period, the Ukrainian military operation continues with barely any let up in intensity. Doctors in Luhansk report 250 deaths and 850 injuries, including civilians during June and July 2014. The OSCE mission moves out of Luhansk on 21 July because of heavy Ukrainian shelling of the city. Severodonetsk falls to the Ukrainian military advance on 22 July. On 29 July, Ukrainian troops at a checkpoint fire warning shots at an OSCE vehicle in Luhansk.

That day, Poroshenko announces a 20km ceasefire to allow access to the MH17 site which has been inaccessible because of ongoing military operations. In early august, Luhansk authorities report that citizens in the affected area are no longer receiving Ukrainian state salaries and pensions. Ukraine is now using military aircraft for strikes on targets in urban areas destroying electricity supply in Luhansk. On 10 August the head of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic proposes a ceasefire to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe. Shelling of urban areas continues from the Ukrainian side with reports of deaths and injuries to civilians.

On 16 August OSCE is trying to corroborate reports of Russian military convoys moving into the Donbas. Donetsk's water supply is affected by Ukrainian shelling and further civilian casualties are reported. Towards late August, human rights abuses by ultra-nationalist Ukrainian Aidar battalion are being reported by the OSCE. Amnesty international later reports that Aidar has committed widespread abuses, including abductions, unlawful detention, ill-treatment, theft, extortion, and possible executions, some of which allegedly amount to war crimes. On 26 Augst there are reports that Ukrainian personnel are abusing members of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church under the Moscow Patriarchy.

By late August, almost daily shelling of urban areas in Luhansk and Donetsk is taking place, basic services are disrupted and access to food is restricted. On 29 August, the Ukrainian army surrounds a town of Ilovaisk, with the order – according to the BBC - to 'wipe out' the separatists within. However, what are believed to have been Russian army formations have encircled the Ukrainian troops encircling the town. Up to 400 Ukrainian soldiers are killed in the ensuing firefight as they struggle to escape.

Amidst signs that the Russian army is playing a more direct role in the conflict, the first Minsk agreement is signed on 5 September. It contains similar provisions to Poroshenko's earlier peace plan, including the decentralisation of power, an amnesty for separatists and an inclusive 'national dialogue'.

The line of contact between the Ukrainian armed forces and the separatist controlled parts of the Donbas largely stays firm over the coming months. However, there are repeated violations of the ceasefire and casualties on both sides, including civilian casualties in the separatist areas. At the start of 2015, Wagner troops from Russia assist in closing a pocket along the frontline at Debaltseve, a small transport hub, in a bloody battle that lasts for several weeks.

This prompts German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President of France, Francois Hollande to become directly involved in mediation. They meet with Presidents Poroshenko and Putin in Minsk on 14/15 February 2015, leading to the signature of the second Minsk Agreement, which people often refer to as Minsk 2. Two days later, the UN Security Council unanimously endorses the Minsk 2 agreement.

This second Minsk agreement is similar to previous agreements but, at Russian insistence, contains more extensive language on the need for devolution in the Donbass, including through the creation of a new Ukrainian constitution. Clauses 4, 8, 9, 11 and 12 all contain detailed provision about sequencing in devolution and resealing the border between Ukraine and Russia.

From British Embassy contacts with Russian officials, it is clear that there is still no desire on the Russian side to annex the Donbas, and that Minsk II is seen as resolving an essentially Ukrainian domestic problem.

Throughout the seven-year period to the start of war in Ukraine in February 2022, President Putin talks often about the need for the Ukrainian side to meets its obligations on devolution under the Minsk II agreement.

But the Ukrainian government never fulfils its obligations. A law on special status was initially passed in Ukraine on 16 September 2014 after the first Minsk agreement was signed. This passed with a narrow majority of four votes. Promised elections in the Donbas were not held and the laws faced immediate resistance including street protests involving the same nationalist groups liked Svoboda, the right sector and others.

It is quickly clear that there is little political appetite in Ukraine to tackle the increasingly powerful nationalists head on and push forward with special status in the Donbas. The reading of the special status law in the Verkhovna Rada in 2017 causes scuffles to break out and further street protests in Kyiv. When newly elected President Zelensky proposes adoption of a devolution law in 2019 he faced further public protests by nationalist elements in Kyiv and elsewhere. He quickly abandons any attempt to advance the matter. Just three weeks before war breaks out, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says in a press interview there will never be special status for the Donbas.

However, over the same period, European Union sanctions against Russia had been linked to the complete implementation of the Minsk agreement. Russia was not a party to most of the clauses of the Minsk agreement, which depended on Ukrainian policy in the Donbas. As such, Russia was on the hook for sanctions on the basis of decisions taken in Ukraine, in circumstances that disincentivised Ukrainian action. Clear action to make good on the promise of devolution in Donetsk and Luhansk would have led to widespread domestic political resistance in Ukraine while at the same time offering Rusia sanctions relief. That was neither in Poroshenko nor Zelensky's interest. Their lack of delivery on Minsk was also underwritten by the US and UK governments in particular that stuck to the narrative that Russia bore full responsibility for implementing Minsk. Western governments stay practically silent on the issue of Ukraine's failure to meet its obligations.

The 'Russia reneged on Minsk' narrative remains powerful even today in western mainstream media coverage of the Ukraine war, in the context of efforts by the US to negotiate a peace. Boris Johnson has finally revealed the line to be wilfully inaccurate.

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A copy of the Minsk 2 agreement is below. It is worth a read, to understand what exactly the Ukrainian government committed itself to deliver.

A list of measures to fulfil the Minsk Agreement, 15 February 2015

1. Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation as of 15 February 2015, 12am local time.

2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides by equal distances in order to create a security zone of at least 50km wide from each other for the artillery systems of caliber of 100 and more, a security zone of 70km wide for MLRS and 140km wide for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch and Tactical Missile Systems (Tochka, Tochka U): -for the Ukrainian troops: from the de facto line of contact; -for the armed formations from certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine: from the line of contact according to the Minsk Memorandum of Sept. 19th, 2014; The withdrawal of the heavy weapons as specified above is to start on day 2 of the ceasefire at the latest and be completed within 14 days. The process shall be facilitated by the OSCE and supported by the Trilateral Contact Group.

3. Ensure effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire regime and the withdrawal of heavy weapons by the OSCE from day 1 of the withdrawal, using all technical equipment necessary, including satellites, drones, radar equipment, etc.

4. Launch a dialogue, on day 1 of the withdrawal, on modalities of local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions" as well as on the future regime of these areas based on this law. Adopt promptly, by no later than 30 days after the date of signing of this document a Resolution of the Parliament of Ukraine specifying the area enjoying a special regime, under the Law of Ukraine "On interim self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions", based on the line of the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014.

5. Ensure pardon and amnesty by enacting the law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

6. Ensure release and exchange of all hostages and unlawfully detained persons, based on the principle "all for all". This process is to be finished on the day 5 after the withdrawal at the latest.

7. Ensure safe access, delivery, storage, and distribution of humanitarian assistance to those in need, on the basis of an international mechanism.

8. Definition of modalities of full resumption of socio-economic ties, including social transfers such as pension payments and other payments (incomes and revenues, timely payments of all utility bills, reinstating taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine). To this end, Ukraine shall reinstate control of the segment of its banking system in the conflict-affected areas and possibly an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers shall be established.

9. Reinstatement of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine throughout the conflict area, starting on day 1 after the local elections and ending after the comprehensive political settlement (local elections in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) to be finalized by the end of 2015, provided that paragraph 11 has been implemented in consultation with and upon agreement by representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under monitoring of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

11. Carrying out constitutional reform in Ukraine with a new constitution entering into force by the end of 2015 providing for decentralization as a key element (including a reference to the specificities of certain areas in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with the representatives of these areas), as well as adopting permanent legislation on the special status of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in line with measures as set out in the footnote until the end of 2015.

12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.

13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.

 

balcanicaucaso.org

Serbia: corruption, arrests and protests

Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso

10–12 minutes

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Drawing of Vučić, during the protests, Serbia, February 2025 © Aleksandra.Vitorovic/Shutterstock

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has been calling for a generic "fight against corruption" for twelve years. Until a few weeks ago, this was just empty rhetoric. Now, to calm the protests, some arrests have been made, but they remain unconvincing and the protests are not subsiding

Protests have been going on in Serbia for months, demanding political accountability and for the State to investigate and prevent corrupt practices such as those that led to one of the greatest tragedies ever in the country. The government is trying in every way to divert attention from the problem and to convince the public, or at least its supporters, that corruption did not cause the tragedy of Novi Sad, promising "zero" tolerance for the corrupt.

For years now, the President of Serbia has been announcing a "fight against corruption". We have heard many times that "the biggest campaign to fight organised crime and corruption will be launched soon", but until a few weeks ago nothing has been done.

President Vučić, as usual, announced the launch of an anti-corruption campaign in the media, before the public opinion learned about it from the police, the prosecutor's office and other competent authorities.

At the end of 2024, Vučić stated that "the state policy will be based on a fierce fight against corruption". Then, in early February, he specified that "the fight will be a daily one, prosecutors will do their job, they have full powers, it will be difficult for us, very difficult. Citizens must have faith in their country, and those who have become immoderate... what can I do?".

Vučić has announced a broad, relentless fight against corruption since he came to power twelve years ago. However, the only "broad" action taken was against Miroslav Mišković, a Serbian businessman and owner of the Delta company, who was eventually acquitted of all charges.

Since then, no investigation into "high-level corruption" has been launched, despite the fact that Serbia, according to citizens, is a highly corrupt country. In its latest annual report, Transparency Serbia highlights that the country "continues to slide in the world's most important ranking of countries based on the perception of corruption in the public sector", placing it at 105th, its worst result since the current survey method was introduced in 2012.

Corruption is eroding every pore of society, students, citizens and the opposition have been saying for months. That corruption is the cause of the collapse of the roof of the Novi Sad station – think of the rules circumvented, the multi-million Euro contracts secretly signed, the countless subcontractors hired, the dramatically increased costs of the work – is clear to everyone except the prosecutor's office and the courts, who apparently do not even follow the money flows related to the reconstruction of the Novi Sad station.

Arrests

In an attempt to calm the situation, over the past month, what the government calls the fight against corruption has been reduced to a series of almost indiscriminate arrests across Serbia.

The day after Vučić's announcement, Milorad Grčić, former director of the Serbian Electricity Company (EPS) and president of the Obrenovac municipality, was arrested. The Belgrade Prosecutor's Office accuses Grčić of damaging EPS by more than one million Euros.

Fourteen other people were arrested along with the former EPS director, including controversial businessman Dejan Papić, who was allegedly involved in the misappropriation of EPS funds.

"This is just the beginning of a large and announced anti-corruption campaign and I expect new actions in the coming days", said Chief Prosecutor Nenad Stefanović.

Former mayor of Niš Dragana Sotirovski was also arrested on charges of damaging the city budget by almost four million Euros. On Wednesday, March 5, eleven of the sixteen people suspected of damaging the National Geodesy Institute for about 100 million dinars (just over 9 million Euros) were arrested.

The arrests for suspected embezzlement also involved the Military Medical Academy in Belgrade, a public company in Senta (in northern Vojvodina), while in Kraljevo an entrepreneur, a certain Cicmil, owner of the Promont company that controls several luxury hotels in Vojvodina, was arrested on charges of money laundering. In addition to these suspects, their assistants and accomplices were also arrested.

The arrests will not end here, at least according to what was announced by the president and the chief prosecutor. The action - designed to deflate student and civic protests, divert attention from other issues, or at least try to demonstrate that no one is untouchable, not even among those in power - have not produced the desired effect.

The protests show no signs of abating, and citizens who do not support the regime perceive the recent anti-corruption action not so much as a real fight against corruption, but rather as an intervention aimed at arresting "small fish" in a large chain of corruption.

Even Vučić's supporters, with the exception of loyalists and the hard core of his party, are skeptical that these arrests can stop corruption, and continue to accuse everyone except Vučić of criminality and corruption, believing that the president is unaware of these practices and that if he were, he would not allow them.

NGOs

Meanwhile, at the end of February, the Belgrade prosecutor's office opened preliminary investigations into several non-governmental organisations, based on allegations by some American officials about the improper use of funds that the United States, through the development agency USAID, had allocated to Serbia. To date, however, no official request for an investigation has been received from the United States.

However, Trump's fight against USAID is also being felt in Serbia, where authorities are hoping for good cooperation with the US administration.

The police have raided the offices of several NGOs, including Civic Initiatives, CRTA, the Center for Practical Policy and the Trag Foundation. Prosecutor Stefanović said that "the police must seize all documentation related to USAID donations to determine whether there was any misuse of the money".

The tabloids published the news about the "suspicious activities" of the aforementioned NGOs even before the police knocked on their doors. The evening before the operation, President Vučić announced it in a broadcast on Happy TV. "Well, there is BRAVO, Sviće, NDNV, NUNS, MUNS, UNS, all paid from abroad. We will help the FBI, we will provide all the information that the FBI will ask us for".

Officially, neither the FBI nor the US administration asked their Serbian colleagues to investigate how USAID donations were spent. However, Vučić, the Speaker of the Parliament and the Chief Prosecutor listened attentively to the statements made by the US President and his close associate Elon Musk on the other side of the ocean. It is therefore not surprising that a few days ago, in a speech, Trump cited Serbia as an example of the squandering of Uncle Sam's dollars, marvelling at the amount of fourteen million dollars earmarked for improving public procurement in Serbia.

Both authorities and non-governmental organisations in Serbia have benefited from USAID funds. In addition to improving public procurement, USAID has also supported Serbian institutions in other areas, including judicial reform, environmental protection, economic competitiveness, and protection of the rights of national minorities.

Non-governmental organisations have received funding for various projects and campaigns, and the total value of donations since 2001 is estimated to have exceeded $937 million.

Ana Brnabić, Speaker of the Belgrade Parliament, who previously worked for USAID (as per Wikipedia), said she has nothing against foreign funding, as long as it is transparent. Brnabić said she does not understand why organisations that work for the rule of law are funded, when those same organisations have called for not adopting constitutional changes that "guarantee the independence of the judiciary and the prosecution".

The Speaker of the Parliament went on to explain that "Serbia came into the news after the US administration revealed how much money was spent to destabilise Vučić and a democratically elected regime".

Journalist Branko Čečen believes that we are witnessing the instrumentalisation of the police for political purposes by investigating the finances of non-governmental organisations, while the laundering of large sums of money through state projects is ignored.

For the Citizens' Initiatives, the intervention of the police and the prosecutor's office is "a serious attack on fundamental human rights, which continues to exert illegitimate pressure on civil society". Other non-governmental organisations, media and individuals also believe that this is a politically motivated action.

Meanwhile, the European Union has issued a statement saying that "civil society plays a fundamental role in the development of a democratic and pluralistic society and should function freely, instead of being constantly subjected to pressure".