WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE PANDEMIC – published in Serbian daily “Politika” on 25.3.2020

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE PANDEMIC – published in Serbian daily "Politika" on 25.3.2020

31/03/2020 od Nebojša Katić

Paradoxical though it might sound, to the Western political and economic establishments, COVID-19 is a gift. The pandemic will invariably have devastating economic consequences, but a financial crisis was inevitable and imminent even before it emerged. The start of this crisis was evident back in September 2019. The pandemic will now serve as a convenient cover-up of this fact, whilst inconvenient questions will be swept under the rug. In this way, the new financial crisis will not be blamed on the economic model of the West, which has not changed one iota since the Big Recession of 2008/2009. Nor will it be blamed on brutal austerity measures, nor on the stagnating incomes of the majority of workers. Nor on the shameless neglect of the astronomical rise in inequality. No, the system is working perfectly – it's this new virus, see, that's to blame. Western nations, as well as those aspiring to their example, will now have the perfect excuse to continue implementing their destructive economic and social politics for another decade, at least. People's endurance will be tested to its limit, as we are manipulated into believing that the sole purpose of existence now is merely staying alive, and little more. There is a systematic whipping up of hysteria which has brought the world into a state of collective paralysis, thereby enabling every totalitarian experiment to be carried out with no resistance. All big economic crises, since the triumph of neoliberalism in the 80s through to today, have been brought about the same way – a combined and unchecked massive increase of public, state and corporate debt. In the second half of 2019, global debt reached an incredible $250 trillion[1] and surpassed 320% of global GDP. Both figures are far higher than they were in 2008 when a crisis on an unprecedented scale occurred. The system has been practising short-termism for a decade now – money is constantly being printed, whilst interest rates are being held lower than ever before seen in modern times. Debts can only be paid off by incurring new ones, however, the unsustainable growth of corporate debt is beginning to collapse the financial system from within. In the US, a serious cash-flow crisis last September catalysed yet further printing of money on an enormous scale. International organisations, as well as global media, feigned ignorance. And then the virus came. Unlike previous crises which were essentially crises of demand, the one we are experiencing today is simultaneously a crisis of both demand and supply because a large part of industry (particularly services) has ceased. That particular combination is usually seen only in periods of economic sanctions and wartime. Many countries in the West right now intend to print several trillion dollars, euros, pounds, etc. – and that's just for starters. No one will question this enormous injection of new money. No one will notice that during crises, money inexplicably seems to appear and is always available for bank and corporate bailouts. It is always available for acquiring weapons, for carrying out military exercises and brutal military interventions. It is only ever unavailable for social welfare, for medical equipment, for health- and care-worker salaries, for academic research and education. Western systems are excellent at „creating" financial derivatives, tools for time-wasting by way of social media and various Hollywood-branded brain-washing, soul-destroying materials. They only falter when it comes to caring for human beings – when they need protecting with facemasks, ventilators, increased hospital capacity, medicines and other tangible remedies. After the pandemic has passed and the dead have been counted, a new wave of economic victims will emerge. Big banks and corporations will be bailed out, but everyone else will be reeling from irreparable damage. Unemployment will soar and the most vulnerable will be hardest hit – the millions who have neither health nor social insurance, nor savings – only debt. No one will count the victims of poverty, nor will we see daily tolls of the affected and dying as a direct result of it. This crisis will yet again impoverish small and weak economies. Capital, which is already fleeing developing countries, will withdraw even faster. Developing economies will be on their knees as they become incapable of rescuing their own citizens and industries. No one will notice how powerful countries that are subsidising their own companies with trillions, using the pandemic as a cover, are plainly breaking the basic market rules – rules that they created. And then these same countries, along with the IMF, will offer „aid" in the form of credit, thereby handing already indebted countries a new financially obliging noose. In exchange for "coloured paper" – dollars and euros – developing countries will continue trading their tangible, real assets – manufactured goods, property and resources. Domestic experts, lovers of the small state and a free market, will painstakingly explain that this is by no means daylight robbery, no, this is merely the West magnanimously investing its hard-earned savings. Unfortunate and incompetent governments will fall for the same old tricks and trust the same advisors. As for the lowly citizens, they will be grateful just to have survived and still be breathing, albeit suffocating financially. I'm afraid that those kind souls who believe that we will learn something from this pandemic and experience a sort of catharsis or rebirth, are fooling themselves. After the pandemic, the world will be even more ruthless and cruel. [1] In the previous version it was wrongly stated that the debt was  350tn.

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foxnews.com

Dr. Nan Hayworth: Falling coronavirus projections — Trump's strategy is working

Nan Hayworth

5-7 minutes

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Projections for the eventual U.S. death toll from COVID-19 have fallen sharply, a testament to the success of a combination of aggressive measures, most notably stringent social distancing, that have been undertaken throughout the country.

This wonderful news is a reminder that Americans can make miracles happen — thanks to their own determination, and to the tireless leadership of a president with remarkable foresight who's assembled a team of the world's best experts to guide and facilitate our response to the pandemic.

The federal government, state governments, entire industries and all our citizens have mobilized to do everything they can to conquer COVID-19.

The first major blow against the disease was struck by President Trump in January when he imposed restrictions on travel from China. This decisive step has been credited with sparing millions of Americans from exposure to the virus, buying crucial time we needed to delay the wave of severe illness now familiarly known as the "curve."

It's been estimated that without any mitigation efforts by either state or federal governments, up to 2.2 million Americans would have died from COVID-19. President Trump's travel restrictions on China were joined subsequently by bans on travel from Europe, the United Kingdom and Ireland, further limiting the introduction of the novel coronavirus from abroad.

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Concurrently the White House Coronavirus Task Force, first convened in January, developed guidelines for all Americans to follow while coordinating with state and local leaders to devise targeted responses to the distinctive situations faced in each part of the country.

The task force's work has been informed consistently by evidence and scholarly analysis. From diagnostics and contact tracing to therapeutic interventions, to rates of hospitalization and mortality, data generated daily in ever greater quantity and diversity have yielded predictive models and guided both planning and action.

Based on the best evidence and analysis to date, in mid-March, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that COVID-19 could kill up to 1.7 million people in the U.S. A model developed around the same time by the Council on Foreign Relations and Resolve to Save Lives predicted that between 163,500 and 1.6 million Americans could die from the pandemic, on the assumption that about 50 percent of our population would contract the disease.

As President Trump has rightly noted, the death toll from COVID-19 is a figure that no one could ever be happy about. It is also true that every life spared as we "crush the curve" is a miracle worth celebrating

To maximize the nation's precautions against reaching such a peak on the coronavirus curve, President Trump and his team announced: "15 days to slow the spread."

By April 1, the aggressive multifaceted attack against COVID-19 at the federal and state levels had moved the worst-case predictions downward: the White House announced that the U.S. could expect between 100,000 and 240,000 coronavirus-related deaths by the end of the outbreak. Wisely, the president extended social distancing guidelines for another 30 days.

Further progress was evinced on April 7, when projected mortality fell significantly in a widely respected model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), to between 49,431 and 136,401 American coronavirus deaths, with a median of just over 80,000. A day later the IHME's median was adjusted downward again, to about 60,000.

The first couple of weeks of April have also demonstrated how rapidly our health care providers have adapted both outpatient and inpatient care according to clinical experience with COVID-19. Recent reports show coronavirus hospitalizations across the U.S. to be far lower than expected, with a notable days-long fall in new hospitalizations in New York, where the pandemic has struck hardest. The state now projects a need for roughly 20,000 to 30,000 beds, compared with the 110,000 that Gov. Andrew Cuomo had previously said would be needed.

Regrettably, the president's critics seek to turn even unambiguously good news into something sinister: MSNBC host Chris Hayes, for example, floated the outlandish conspiracy theory that the administration had deliberately inflated previous counts to make the revised projections look better.

Hayes' resoundingly ridiculed hypothesis is decisively refuted by experts, including Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, leaders of the Coronavirus Task Force, who have described how the nation's steadily evolving response to COVID-19, and the volume and speed of data collection, influence models' assumptions and predictions day by day.

As President Trump has rightly noted, the death toll from COVID-19 is a figure that no one could ever be happy about. It is also true that every life spared as we "crush the curve" is a miracle worth celebrating — as is the extraordinary partnership among government, enterprise and our citizens to fight a crisis of unprecedented magnitude and speed, an effort the president has led ever since news of the virus first emerged on the world scene.

 

theguardian.com

Coronavirus diplomacy: how Russia, China and EU vie to win over Serbia

Shaun Walker

7-9 minutes

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First, the Chinese came to Belgrade, with planeloads of equipment and six medical experts to help coordinate national coronavirus policy. An emotional Serbian president kissed the Chinese flag in gratitude and slammed Europe for its lack of assistance.

Then came the Russians, who flew in less crucial but nevertheless welcome resources on military jets with much media fanfare.

Finally the Europeans came, pointing out that they had been there all along and had funded significantly more than Russia and China put together.

In Serbia, a candidate country for eventual EU accession that has also courted Moscow and Beijing in recent years, the intersection of competing "coronavirus diplomacies" is highly visible.

As the pandemic gathers speed, major players are looking to use soft power and aid to fulfil their foreign policy goals. For the EU, it's trying to prove that talk of European values and solidarity is not just empty words. For China, it's changing the narrative to present the country as the solution to coronavirus, not its cause. For Russia, it's using more modest resources for maximum effect, with Russian military vehicles driving through Italy or a planeload of equipment despatched to the US partly produced by a sanctioned company. The Americans, focused internally under the Trump administration, have largely been absent from the coronavirus diplomacy game.

In Serbia, it all started on 15 March, the day president Aleksandar Vučić declared a state of emergency. It was the same day that a statement from European commission president Ursula von der Leyen appeared to suggest a ban on exporting medical supplies from the bloc. This infuriated Vučić and led to an emotional outburst.

 

A group of Chinese doctors inspect a makeshift hospital for coronavirus patients at the Belgrade Fair. Photograph: Oliver Bunic/AFP via Getty Images

"European solidarity does not exist. It was a fairy tale. I have sent a special letter to the only ones who can help. That is China," Vučić told the nation. He asked China for supplies, equipment and advice on fighting the pandemic, and soon after, a plane landed in Belgrade.

"It was not exactly what we would want to hear from a government that claims it is doing its utmost to join the EU," said one European diplomat based in Belgrade. But even in Spain and Italy there has been anger at the lack of a coordinated European response to coronavirus, and for those outside the bloc like Serbia, the rejection was felt even more strongly.

"The EU was initially a bit slow and clumsy. This is what happens very often with the EU, of course it cannot be as fast and interventionist in the way China or Russia can be," said Milena Lazarević of the European Policy Centre in Belgrade.

China was happy to step into the gap. Serbian officials say the Chinese experts, who have remained in the country, are now running the government's coronavirus policy. Unlike most of Europe, Serbia is following the Chinese model of isolating even mild cases of coronavirus in large field hospitals, rather than trusting people to self-isolate.

The Chinese also recommended an absolute lockdown such as the one that had been implemented in Wuhan, said one Serbian official. This was rejected on the basis that the Serbian public would not accept it, but strict curfews have been put in place, and those over 70 are confined to their homes at all times.

A promised mass-testing regime is not yet up to speed and reports suggest the testing procedure is chaotic. But Serbian officials are hopeful that implementing the strict Chinese measures early will mean the country avoids a large-scale epidemic as seen in western European countries. As of Sunday, Serbia has 3,380 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 74 deaths.

Russia also sent aid, mainly disinfectant solution for hospitals and apartment block entrances. Back in Moscow, opposition figures have griped that the Kremlin has been sending equipment abroad for propaganda gain, while doctors at home lack basic supplies. In Serbia, the help was welcome, though there was a sense that the fanfare around the deliveries may outweigh their actual use.

Since Vučić's outburst, the EU has also been working hard to showcase the ways in which it has helped Serbia. The EU delegation in the country noted that more than €200m (£176m) of grants and €250m of loans have been provided to help build and equip medical facilities over the past two decades. An EU-funded laboratory, initially designed to do quality control tests for milk and other food products, has been repurposed as a coronavirus testing lab. A further €93m of funds has been pledged by the EU over the short and medium term to fight coronavirus and its effects.

The coronavirus situation is in many ways an extension of the previous battle for hearts and minds in the Serbia. A survey carried out last December showed that many Serbs believed Russia or China to be the country's largest donor over the past two decades, while in fact the EU had given about 100 times more than either.

"In times of crisis, a plane with emergency materials may have a big public effect but the structural work in the health sector for many years is easily forgotten," said the European diplomat.

Vučić has since also praised European aid, but the big Chinese gestures are likely to stick in the public memory. The prime minister, Ana Brnabić, has said she wants to build a monument to Serbian-Chinese friendship when the pandemic is over, while a billboard in Belgrade, paid for by a pro-government tabloid, has a simple message: "Thank you, Brother Xi."

 

 

Europe and the noose around its neck: like the mafia

Europe and the noose around its neck: like the mafia

by Alessandro Somma

A few days ago the well-known German newspaper die Welt , known for its conservative and at times reactionary editorial line, felt the need to warn Chancellor Angela Merkel from showing excessive solidarity with the European countries affected by the Covid-19 emergency. Especially with Italy we should be careful: the country is plagued by the Mafia, and this is waiting for nothing more than jumping on the rain funding from Brussels. It is therefore better to allocate few funds, and above all to exercise tight control to avoid waste and rubie.

It evidently escapes German friends that the mafia thrives precisely because money does not come from Brussels. Already now many companies forced to stop production are choked by debt and are therefore hungry for money. If this does not come through legal channels, the mafia is ready to provide it: immediately and without bureaucracy. To then demand usurious interests, then reduce entrepreneurs to the floor and finally force them to sell off their business.

On closer inspection, the behavior of organized crime helps us to understand how Europe is behaving with Italy. Our country is falling into a dramatic economic crisis, which will bring impoverishment and unemployment to its citizens and chasms in the state coffers. Our deficit and our debt will explode, and our GDP will collapse, just as we have to return to the path of budgetary balance: the Stability and Growth Pact has been suspended but will soon be reactivated. We therefore desperately need large sums, but not loaned, because in this way we would stick our heads in a noose ready to tighten in the coming months.

Of course, this condition is common to many European countries, but Germany and its satellites think they can do it alone. For this reason they refuse to share the economic effort: with the famous Eurobonds, or with debt securities issued by Europe, or with the monetization of the debt, that is with the purchase by the European Central Bank of debt securities issued by the member countries . Direct purchase from the latter and not from banks, as is the case with Quantitative easing, however, unable to reach the real economy.

This is the position reiterated in the last meeting of the Eurogroup by the Eurozone financial ministers, where little useful or worse harmful solutions were proposed. The creation of funds for companies and unemployment is of little use, first of all because they mobilize insufficient sums and then because they set in motion mere rounds: the funds are created by issuing securities on the market with irrevocable guarantees provided by individual States, and in any case the figures obtained must be returned and therefore increase the debt. The fund for recovery is of little use, of which nothing is said except that it will be discussed together with the European budget: therefore in too long a time, and above all knowing that nothing will be done. On the other hand, recourse to MES is harmful, whose financial assistance would not be subject to conditionality for healthcare costs only: they are still conditionalities as such, which can be reviewed later, and then we speak again of loans to be repaid.

Under these conditions, the optimisms and even the triumphant tones of those who comment on the decisions of the Eurogroup are truly incomprehensible, considering them a balanced compromise between the positions of the hawks in the north and the South European countries. If this compromise is not radically revised, Italy's fate is sealed: she correctly said that she will not resort to MES in order not to hang herself with her own hands, and therefore will only be able to have the money necessary to face the crisis by issuing bonds, or by getting into debt with the market, as well as possibly with funds for business and unemployment. At this point, Italian titles will be considered rubbish and can only be placed at high interests: so high as to not be sustainable, and therefore to lead to the Mes-style and Troika-style intervention. We will thus end Greece, with the rich European countries engaged in shopping at the sale prices of Italian businesses and public goods.

If this is the case, Italy's problem is not the mafia ready to eat the aid of Brussels, but Europe which acts like the mafia with Italian companies strangled by European selfishness. And faced with this stark reality, there is only one way: when the European Council meets to ratify the decisions of the Eurogroup, Italy will have to refuse to do so. Whatever it takes.

 

(April 10, 2020)

 

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thehill.com

Washington fiddles in the Balkans while COVID flames engulf the world

7-8 minutes

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What possible American interest is served by the Trump administration's ongoing diplomacy that is destabilizing Kosovo, a small and vulnerable pro-American Balkan country, during a global health pandemic? And why would the Trump team do so when the U.S. stopped Serbia — by force — from committing genocide in Kosovo in 1999?

This is especially puzzling since the U.S. was the major player in gaining independence for Kosovo and since Kosovo has been the most pro-American country in Europe after independence. And yet, ongoing American diplomacy today favors Serbia, Russia's closest ally in the region.

Trump's envoy, Richard Grenell, has been bullying Kosovo into accepting Serbian demands as part of a "negotiation" to normalize relations between the two countries.

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Grenell leads the current U.S. diplomatic effort in Kosovo; he also holds the posts of U.S. Ambassador to Germany and acting Director of National Intelligence. This is an absurd range of duties for someone with limited diplomatic experience and none in intelligence.

Grenell was reportedly a disaster as ambassador to Germany, if the standard is a cooperative relationship with arguably America's most important democratic ally in Europe. German officials can't wait for Grenell to move on.

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N Susan Rice called Grenell "one of the most nasty, dishonest people I've ever encountered."

Serbia today is led by President Aleksandar Vucic, a Serbian nationalist who is using ethnic hatred as a political tool to gain local political support — just as Slobodan Milosevic did in the 1990s. Today, Serbian leaders in Belgrade continue to foster division and hostility in both Bosnia and Kosovo. Vladimir Putin is happy to assist Belgrade in anything that undermines the unity of Western Europe and the United States.

What Trump and Grenell are doing now in Kosovo breaks with successful American policy in the region in fundamental ways.

One U.S. principle that brought peace to the region by 2008 was the concept that borders were fixed and that political solutions must be found within the borders of the nations affected. The Ohrid Agreement that prevented war in Macedonia states clearly that "There are no territorial solutions to ethnic issues." Rights, not territory, are the solution to these problems.

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The U.S. leadership of a strong coalition of international partners used intense diplomacy and military force to end Serbian genocide in Bosnia, stop another brutal humanitarian disaster in Kosovo and prevent a civil war in Macedonia from 1995 to 2008 as the former Yugoslavia broke apart. The American-led effort in the former Yugoslavia was a major foreign policy success for the U.S. in the early post-Soviet period.

Today, Kosovo is a sovereign democratic country, recognized by 97 nations. But Serbia has used its influence to block Kosovo's membership in the United Nations and other international institutions. In reaction, Kosovo placed a 100 percent tariff on Serbian goods entering the country. Grenell has been pushing Kosovo to eliminate the tariffs to get stalled negotiations moving.

Since international sanctions and tariffs are the favored policy of the Trump administration, Trump's opposition to Kosovo's legitimate import tariffs as international leverage is beyond ironic.

To pressure Pristina to lift the embargo, the U.S. suspended desperately needed aid to Kosovo. Some officials in Washington even raised the possibility of removing the small contingent of U.S. troops in Kosovo that have been essential to Balkan security since 1999. This was a major factor causing the Kosovo government of Prime Minister Albin Kurti to fall as the COVID-19 virus spread through the region. Kosovo is now ruled by a weak caretaker government.

Grenell seems to prefer the attitude of long-time Kosovo politician and current President Hashim Thaci, who has favored a deal with Belgrade, even one that included a land swap between Kosovo and Belgrade.

I advised Thaci in a personal conversation in Washington over a year ago that the land-swap deal was a Serbian trick that would go nowhere, and that he could not trust the Trump administration in any negotiation with Belgrade. He has ignored the advice.

Many questions surround the Grenell mission to Kosovo. Why would someone with such limited experience and with such an important national portfolio engage in negotiations between two weak Balkan adversaries? Why is Grenell taking a pro-Serbian position in the talks? Why is the U.S. destabilizing a pro-American country at such a vulnerable time?

Something about this does not smell right.

As a committed, combative Trump enthusiast, Grenell may just be desperate to please the boss.

But I suspect that there is something more troubling afoot, especially since I remain deeply suspicious about Trump's relationship to Vladimir Putin. I suspect — without proof — that Putin presented his pro-Serb views to Trump, emphasized that Albanians are Muslims and then asked Trump for help in the negotiations.

As with other ill-conceived appointments, Trump made his loyal servant, the aggressive and antagonistic Grenell, the point man on Kosovo. This would be an easy gift to Putin who delights in causing trouble — of any kind — in Europe.

Having Trump-inspired diplomacy engaged in the former Yugoslavia is like letting a two-year-old play with a lighted candle in a haystack.

The Grenell mission in Kosovo risks instability in the Balkans and serves no U.S. national interest. The current U.S. policy on Kosovo is diplomatic incompetence at a minimum, quite possibly malfeasance.

As COVID-19 rages through the United States and Europe, Grenell should not be bumbling about in the Balkans where he lacks the knowledge, experience and diplomatic capacity to improve the situation.

Instead, the U.S. should be promoting a stable Kosovo government to handle the looming health crisis. The Kosovo-Serbia relationship is a long-term problem that deserves serious, professional diplomatic attention, not a half-baked one-sided policy that plays into Serbian and Russian interests.

James W. Pardew is a former U.S. ambassador to Bulgaria and career Army intelligence officer. He has served as deputy assistant secretary-general of NATO and is the author of "Peacemakers: American Leadership and the End of Genocide in the Balkans."

 

washingtontimes.com

Serbia's coronavirus crackdown and a warning for America

Cheryl K. Chumley

7-9 minutes

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ANALYSIS/OPINION:

(CORRECTION: This piece originally contained an erroneous reference about the Serbian president's intentions. The reference has been removed. The Washington Times regrets the error.)

In Belgrade, Serbia, soldiers are out and about, patrolling with machine guns, seeking to stop anyone on the street who has dared violate a presidential declaration of emergency and nationwide lockdown — all due to the coronavirus outbreak.

This is drastic times 10.

But what's most chilling is that it's very nearly imaginable that the scenes from Serbia could kind of, almost, maybe and perhaps — under the right circumstances, with the right conditions and pressures — be Anystreet, America, modern-day coronavirus.

Schools have been ordered closed.

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Citizens have been ordered to stay home.

Businesses are shuttered; police are arresting social distancing violators; churches have been closed.

Pastors are being arrested.

"Florida megachurch pastor arrested for holding crowded services Sunday," Fox News reported.

The story went on to report how Rodney Howard-Browne, head of The River at Tampa Bay Church, insisted on holding services because, as he argued, if Walmart could remain open as an essential, then so could his church. Police didn't see it that way; they arrested him for "unlawful assembly" ad "violation of [a] public health emergency order."

Crazy times in America, yes?

Now consider Serbia.

"Soldiers patrol the streets with their fingers on machine gun triggers," The Associated Press reported. "The army guards an exhibition center-turned-makeshift-hospital crowded with rows of metal beds for those infected with the coronavirus. And Serbia's president warns residents that Belgrade's graveyards won't be big enough to bury the dead if people ignore his government's lockdown orders."

It's tyranny that's taken hold of Serbia, it seems. President Aleksander Vucic has been accused of using the coronavirus crisis to seize powers he's not been properly granted.

"[He's assumed] full supremacy" over the government, said Rodoljub Sabic, a former state commission for personal data protection, to AP.

"He issues orders which are automatically accepted by the government," Mr. Sabic went on. "No checks and balances."

No questioning of any constitutional rights of the individual; no concerns about the long-term stifling of freedoms.

And how'd MR. Vucic manage to seize that power? How'd he get by with suspending parliament?

By declaring a state of emergency.

By declaring the end — a coronavirus-free existence — justifies the crackdown means.

It's not that President Donald Trump is going to stand at the White House podium and threaten to shoot U.S. citizens who disobey government-imposed curfews and quarantines and stay-at-home orders.

But Serbia can still be a teaching moment for America. Serbia can still show the chill of what happens in panic situations when government assumes full control.

America is not Serbia; Serbia is not America.

But government is government is government. There are always those in government who will seek to use crisis situations to personal advantage and to grow bureaucratic powers. And freedoms don't always fall at the point of a gun. Sometimes, they crumble quietly, on the calls for greater goods, on the causes of national security — or even, perhaps, quite possibly, over the concerns of a coronavirus.

After all, who would ever have thought a pastor in America, in First Amendment free America, would be arrested for the crime of holding church service.

• Cheryl Chumley can be reached at cchumley@washingtontimes.com or on Twitter, @ckchumley. Listen to her podcast "Bold and Blunt" by clicking HERE. And never miss her column; subscribe to her newsletter by clicking HERE.

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intellinews.com

Serbia to implement €5bn stimulus package to support economy

By bne IntelliNews March 30, 2020

2-3 minutes

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Serbia's government will implement a set of measures worth €5bn to help the economy tackle the negative consequences from the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, President Aleksandar Vucic said as quoted by eKapija on March 30. The details of this plan should be revealed on March 31.

Serbia adopted tough restrictions after declaring a state of emergency in the middle of March following the coronavirus outbreak. As the country started mass testing, the number of confirmed cases is increasing sharply and as of the end of March 29 it reached almost 800 people.

The measures the government will implement will be partially funded by international institutions. On March 30, Raiffeisen Research noted that the IMF has advised Serbia to consider converting the current non-financial IPC instrument into a stand-by arrangement in case IMF money is needed to address the impact of the coronavirus on the domestic economy.

If the government decides to change its agreement with the IMF, it could get around €400mn in cheap loans from the IMF.

The country has a strong liquidity buffer as public sector deposits with the central bank stood at €3.2bn as of February, as well as €13.4bn in FX reserves and cumulative budget surplus of the last three years. In April, the government is expected to sell securities in order to refinance older debt.

"Although local banks are expected to bid in the auction, especially as NSB's liquidity injection last week should have eased earlier funding constraints, the demand is likely to remain below the government expectation," Raiffeisen Research noted.

Earlier in March, Vucic projected that Serbia's economy will contract 2% in 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak.

 

Putin Says ‘the Rich Must Pay’ for the Coronavirus

Putin Says 'the Rich Must Pay' for the Coronavirus

By Mike Whitney, March 30, 2020

Putin has settled on a more rational and compassionate plan. He's going to launch a relief program that actually focuses on the people who need it the most. Then, he's going to cover the costs by taxing the people who are most capable of shouldering the burden. His intention is not to "soak the rich" or to redistribute wealth. He simply wants to find the most equitable way to share the costs for this completely unexpected crisis.

 

strategic-culture.org

'Helicopter Money': This Is the Game-Changer Geo-Politically

Alastair Crooke

12-15 minutes

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As the US and the UK, to stem Covid-19 infections, adopt a close-to-wartime approach, with intrusive levels of intervention into social life, these governments – as the corollary to lockdown – are proposing massive bail-outs. At first brush, this may seem both sensible and appropriate. But wait. Bailing out what? Well, financial markets of course, but then … just about everything: Boeing, the US Shale-oil industry, airlines, the tourist industry, and (in the US) every citizen – through posting them a $1,000, or a $2,000 cheque, this week – or, as is mooted in DC – perhaps one every month. Great! Just like Christmas.

The markets crashed: $½ Trillion in 'liquidity' here; $1.5 Tn there – and there – and there. An alphabet soup of lending facilities — pretty soon you are talking 'real money'. The alphabet soup cloaks the collective size of liquidity available to banks. And likewise for individuals? 210 million US adults X $1,000, X 12 or 18 (months), is a staggering sum of money — closer to $4 Tn, or 18% of US GDP. Likewise, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak pledged £330bn, or 15% of GDP, to support the economy, on top of a three-month mortgage payment holiday and a slew of tax deferments, and to do, as well, "whatever it takes".

So, how come? How is this money suddenly available – when we have repeatedly been told in the wake of the 2008 crisis that austerity must be the only answer? Well, welcome to the 'new orthodoxy' (actually it is not new at all: France tried it in the eighteenth century when it 'printed' the Assignats). Call it 'helicopter money', or, the so-called 'Modern Monetary Theory': The principle is that it is okay to print money – if governments don't otherwise have it. The point here is that 'helicopter money' (money conjured out of nothing: empty units reflecting no underlying real economic value) is a paradigm change. A major paradigm change.

It is the legacy from 2008. That was primarily a banking crisis: Printing money seemed to work out pretty well then, in the view of the élites. The main reason that those 'experts' have thought that printing money worked in the wake of 2008 was because the Central Banks were able to reflate the financialised asset bubbles.

"But that wasn't success, that was failure", financial guru, Peter Schiff comments. It was a failure because it resulted in even bigger bubbles, and even greater debt – which precisely has set us all up for today's crisis: For we are going into this crisis naked of any real tools to deal with supply-shock.

In 2008, everybody believed the money 'printing' was temporary: Bank balance sheets were all gummed up; and the Fed was going to be able afterwards to normalize interest rates, and shrink its balance sheet. Well, nobody is going to believe that, this time. No, debts will soar – and will be 'forever' debts.

Yet for today's policy-makers, it all seems so reasonable, so plausible: If the Fed floods the financial system with money, interest rates can stay at zero for ever. What's not to like about this? Certainly, it fits with Trump's real estate career, built on low interest, easy debt. Governments now may borrow for a hundred years at zero interest; and banks can lend like fury, as the Fed has dropped the requirement for banks to keep any reserves against their loans (i.e. to 'print' more easy credit for the favoured).

Better still, governments can just conjure the money out of thin air (by monetising its debts): It can use these funds to bail out all those businesses and citizens adversely affected by Covid-19, and become heroes. Welcome to the new 'Orthodoxy'.

What's the alternative? Well that's the point. The financialised, monetarist worldview dogmatically pursued through the last decades has left the toolbox with only one tool (more money, more liquidity). They have driven the world into this monetarist cul-de-sac. They will go on doing the same thing (liquidity and bailouts), over and over again, and (per Albert Einstein), always hoping for a different and better result. But it won't work. It won't work because the problem is not lack of liquidity. It is that businesses have no business to do – under infection lockdown. We had better understand the consequences to this insanity. That's all.

This time, the 2008 recipé will not work. The US is going to be hit hard. And Americans are only just waking up to this fact.

This New Orthodoxy is no more than a desperate throw of the dice to keep the western hyper-financialised system aloft. The 'mobilised-for-war' narrative is an attempt to justify authoritarian measures, and the false bail-out meme: There was no 'free money' during the Wars.

In the 2008/9 crisis, the public was bemused: The financial world seemed too arcane to grasp fully. Only later, was it appreciated that the banks were being saved by 'socialising' their mistakes and losses. These – the losses – were 'socialised' i.e. transferred to the public balance sheet, and the public were told to expect austerity – and pared down health and welfare systems, to pay for all these 2008 bail outs.

This time, it is not the banks, but corporations and their 'junk' debt, that the Authorities are hoping to preserve in aspic (just as the banks were, earlier). In simple terms, it will allow over-leveraged companies to go into even deeper debt – with those loans now backed by the US Federal government.

But, will a better informed public so readily agree that Boeing deserves a $60 Bn bailout, when all its cash was spent in the last years in buying back its own stock and paying large dividends. It may be argued that if the money simply is printed, austerity cuts may not be required. But printing money dilutes the underlying purchasing potential of the money that had existed before dilution. That is to say, it is the 60% who ultimately will pay the cost – again. The new austerity will be a covert wealth transfer through dilution of peoples' purchasing potential.

As Schiff notes, monetary inflation "is probably not just the worst-case scenario, it's probably the most likely scenario … the laws of economics apply here just like they did in the Weimar Republic of Germany, or in Zimbabwe, or in Venezuela. If we pursue the same monetary and fiscal policy they did, we're going to receive the same monetary outcome they did (hyperinflation)".

This all may seem a somewhat rarefied argument to some, but the implications (both political and geo-political) are huge. This wartime economic approach – of itself – is not going to bring radical change to our neo-liberalised institutional world, nor reform it. That window was shut after 2008. The reality today is that to 'touch' the system now might induce a debt-deflation – a prospect which truly terrifies the Establishment – on top of impending supply-shock recession.

We are locked in through the errors of the Central Bankers: No wonder the Authorities are trying to kindle a war atmosphere in order to say that 'helicopter money' is okay. "It's wartime". And they will probably order the military out on the streets soon. Saying what is written here, will soon be held to be 'enemy propaganda'.

The effect of a war-like command economy will not be to sweep society or the economy onto a new course, but rather, will be to re-situate it into the old grooves. Will anyone believe that in this new 'command economy' era, the government directed bailouts and the credit lines, will not be channelled principally to the political élites and their allies?

Yet, just as after the sacrifices of two World Wars, there was 'New Deal' mood apparent amongst the people. So it was too, in the wake of 2008: There were calls for reform to a system that entrenched the richest one per cent; but instead we got austerity, and a return to business as usual. Policy was deliberately designed to prop up the old system, and make it function as before. Reform denied.

Today, people are fully focussed on managing their lives under virus lockdown, but the political pendulum has been swinging markedly (so-called populist politics) against what is widely perceived as a politically and economically 'rigged system'.

The question then is, firstly, will US monetary actions succeed? Will they succeed in saving the financial system, 'as it used to be'? Well, take the call for helicopter money: the term refers to giving money directly to individuals as if dropping cash on everybody out of a helicopter. But Schiff points out, that when Milton Friedman (the father of monetarist economics) coined the term, he intended it as a joke:

"He was using it as an example of what not to do – about why Keynesian monetary stimulus doesn't work. He said it's a crazy, stupid idea … Because dropping money from helicopters doesn't do anything. It's just inflation. It just makes prices go up".

And, secondly, will this approach – which anyway is not working, as markets continue to implode – provoke a more concerted opposition to financial excess and inequality, in all its various forms? Will the demand for reform of the neo-liberal system become unstoppable? Maybe the 'community spirit' of suffering the virus together, will not be so tolerant of leaders who have failed to take appropriate steps to staunch infection spread, in a timely fashion?

Here, it is the 'war' on Covid-19 – rather than the other 'war' to save the economy – that will play a key role in shaping the geo-political future. Enough people have already commentated on the communal, national sentiment being generated by Corona virus. Here in Italy, Italians do feel far more linked empathetically – as if fighting a common enemy (which in a way they are). We all feel for the inhabitants of Lombardy and Bergamo. And, Italians know too, that they are on their own.

This feeling of Euro sauve qui peut (every country to its own) is palpable, and not confined to those just outside the EU borders, such as when the Serbian President (reacting bitterly to news that the EU had imposed an export ban on equipment such as masks and gowns to protect medical workers), said: "International solidarity does not exist. European solidarity does not exist", to which most Italians would have responded 'hear, hear'. The only help for Italy arrived from China.

It is the return of the nation-state. Covid-19 will change the course of Italian politics, as well as determine – in a significant way – the future of the EU. Let us be clear: The US and the UK can only make those offers of gushing liquidity and bail-outs – because they 'print' money. They control their own money-supply, their deficits – and to a much lesser extent, have some scope over interest rates. EU states do not. And arguments over EU financial mitigation for Covid-19 will 'rack' EU institutions and unity – perhaps to breaking-point.

And this more general attitude of sauve qui peut and lack of empathy is probably felt nowhere more deeply than in China. The more so, even than Italy. China has been denigrated, particularly in America, in a way that many Chinese feel borders on racism. Pepe Escobar has written:

"Among the myriad, earth-shattering geopolitical effects of coronavirus, one is already graphically evident. China has re-positioned itself. For the first time since the start of Deng Xiaoping's reforms in 1978, Beijing openly regards the US as a threat, as stated a month ago by Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference during the peak of the fight against coronavirus.

"Beijing is carefully, incrementally shaping the narrative that, from the beginning of the coronovirus attack, the leadership knew it was under a hybrid war attack. Xi's terminology is a major clue. He said, on the record, that this was war. And, as a counter-attack, a "people's war" had to be launched."

Europe and America will be facing a very different Chinese-Russian axis in the wake of the Coronavirus. The gloves are off. And Europe will be the first to feel the effect: No more Euro prevarication. That is to say, no more 'one foot in; one foot out' in relations with China (on Huawei 5G – as just one example).

Russia and China well understand: Helicopter money, and unparalleled 'printed' bail-outs, this is the game-changer. For now, the US dollar is soaring on demand from states who see their own currencies crashing, but who have borrowed in dollars – and see those dollar loans becoming shockingly more costly, day-by-day.

But, the G7 Central Banks finally will have to fight the inflation monster that will be unleashed by their 'helicopter theories'. Confidence in the dollar will decline, as more and more dollar helicopter 'drops' are made. Interest rates will rise, and western junk debt will become toxic, and untenable at higher rates.

In a word, the world will come to see the US as much less powerful and less competent than appearances have projected it. Its lacunae will stare out.

Is the time approaching for that global monetary re-set, as the dollar loses its shine, President Putin must be mulling …?

 

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Europe's failure to address Covid-19 shows the need for a European 'health citizenship'

6-8 minutes

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The Covid-19 crisis illustrates that globalisation entails health risks, and that the institutional design of public health systems is ill-suited for the scale of a pandemic, writes Joan Costa-Font. He argues that the inefficiency of the policies implemented by different EU member states highlights why a Europe-wide public health authority should now be a priority to counteract collective action problems among different member states. EU membership should be accompanied by a European 'health citizenship'.

The Covid-19 crisis is not just the most important health crisis that higher income countries have suffered over the last century, but also one that comes with enormous consequences for the global economy. It illustrates more than ever that while globalisation can provide benefits via free trade and mobility, it also entails risks.

Although the exact consequences of the crisis are still to be determined, we already suspect that even under a best-case scenario they will be paradigm changing – and perhaps the tipping point desperately needed to address the challenges of globalisation.  A key lesson from the crisis should be that the collaboration and collective action required in Europe to meet these challenges cannot be achieved without transferring powers to a European public health authority.

Diverse responses

The way the world is organised has proven to be catastrophic for the management of this epidemic. In Europe, each country has reacted in a different way, perhaps revealing the distinct characters of national elites. Germany has managed to keep death rates low with heavy testing, but other European countries have been far slower to react, while some governments appear to have been less open about the situation they were facing and only reacted when the virus was at their doorstep. Some countries, such as Austria and Poland, have demonstrated nationalist instincts in their responses by closing down their borders. Meanwhile in Spain, the approach has included the centralisation of healthcare responsibilities following the declaration of a state of emergency, even though the relevant expertise is located at the regional level, and some Spanish regions that advocated for a lock down have remained open.

In contrast, In Italy, the regions of Veneto and Lombardy were early movers in setting up a quarantine and urging locals to stay home. In Lombardy, local health authorities established strong containment measures in the initial cluster by quarantining several towns in an attempt to slow transmission of the virus. In Germany, states have taken the lead in fighting the virus, while in the UK, Wales and Scotland have acted first by announcing policy measures such as school closures which were then followed by the whole country.

This being said, solutions must be built on cooperation and trust in existing institutions. Today, humanity faces an acute crisis not only due to Covid-19, but also due to a lack of public trust. To defeat an epidemic, people need to trust scientific experts, citizens need to trust public authorities, and countries need to trust each other.

Europe's almost non-existent role

Public health was introduced as an express area of EU competence for the first time by the Maastricht Treaty and internal market regulation does constitute a significant constraint on health services. European health governance is a multilevel system very much like that of other federations. According to article 3 TEC, the European Community shall contribute to a "high level of health protection". Although the right to health care is a 'positive right', the European Court of Justice has envisaged it as a 'negative right' linked with the principle of freedom and non-discrimination.

 

Stella Kyriakides, the European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety, Credit: CC-BY-4.0: © European Union 2019 – Source: EP

However, Europe reacted to the Covid-19 crisis fairly late. Only in the second week of March did the President of the European Commission propose that all non-essential travel to the EU should be suspended for 30 days. Alongside Europe's failure to manage the migration crisis, it can be argued there is now a desperate need to reform the EU's institutions to enable them to take more effective control over global crises in areas where national reactions are affected by collective action problems (i.e. countries only react when they face an immediate cost to themselves).

A European public health authority

Today, European citizenship is defined by a common European health card as much as a European passport. However, the European role in managing health crises has remained modest. The Covid-19 crisis highlights that public health (the management of global public risks) is an area where the EU should be more proactive. Given the nationalistic and even selfish policies implemented by various member states, the creation of a European wide public health authority must now be viewed as an urgent matter to consider as part of wider reforms. Being European should entail having a European health citizenship.

The help provided by the German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg to patients in the French region of Alsace is illustrative of the fact that health crises like Covid-19 are global in nature and require collaboration to be eradicated. However, this collaboration and collective action cannot be enforced without transferring health powers to the European level. This should be accompanied with recognition that local knowledge is fundamental to the management of health systems.

Crises like Covid-19 affect Europe in a different way from the rest of the world and there is a clear case for an authority that can ensure cooperative policy solutions across member states. If all European countries had implemented the same policy response that Germany put forward, Europe would likely have far fewer fatalities.

Although the delivery of health services is more efficient when it is decentralised (as preferences and needs are heterogeneous), global public health crises should be addressed centrally at the highest level possible, namely the EU's institutions. We should remember this lesson during the next pandemic.

Please read our comments policy before commenting.

Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics.

_________________________________

About the author

Joan Costa-Font – LSE
Joan Costa-Font is Associate Professor (Reader) in the LSE's Department of Health Policy.

 

euractiv.com

Serbia turns to China due to 'lack of EU solidarity' on coronavirus

By Julija Simić | EURACTIV.rs

5-6 minutes

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Chinese Ambassador to Serbia, Chen Bo, informed Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Tuesday (17 March) that Beijing had approved a donation and decided to send experts to help Serbia fight the coronavirus pandemic. EURACTIV Serbia reports.

Vučić said Serbia was not yet in the same crisis as EU countries when it comes to the coronavirus but that it would soon happen.

"Serbia now turns its eyes to China," Vučić said.

"To avoid that worst-case scenario, we need your help and support. That is why I am asking that you send us anything you can. Money is not a problem, we need everything, from masks, gloves to ventilators, literally everything, and most of all we need your knowledge and people who would be willing to come here and help," Vučić said.

"All my personal hopes are focused on and directed toward China and its president," he said, emphasising that Serbia was not asking for money.

The ambassador said that "ordinary citizens" in China had reacted very positively to Vučić's call for help, and that more than 300 million people had watched a video recording of his statement.

"We are waiting for our Chinese brothers here. Without you, it turns out that Europe is having difficulty defending itself, we do not hide the fact that we cannot [defend ourselves]. Without China and our Chinese brothers, we are incapable of doing so," Vučić said.

The first batch of Chinese aid in the struggle against the novel virus has already arrived in Serbia, and comprises COVID-19 test kits donated by the Mammoth Foundation, a humanitarian organisation based in Shenzhen.

The aid operation was coordinated by the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in collaboration with the Serbian government. The number of test kits delivered was not specified.

"European solidarity does not exist"

The Serbian president said earlier that Belgrade had requested aid in medical supplies and staff from China. This had become all the more urgent since the European Commission decided to limit exports of medical equipment outside of Europe.

 

Vučić further said that he had guaranteed Serbia's "centennial and strong as steel friendship" to the Chinese president.

"European solidarity does not exist. That was a fairy tale on paper. I have sent a special letter to the only ones who can help, and that is China…," Vučić said on 15 March, the day when a state of emergency was declared in Serbia due to the coronavirus.

The president said at the time that many Western governments had pressed Serbia to change its tender procedures in order to reduce imports of Chinese goods and import from Europe instead. But now the same governments do not want to help Serbia even in exchange for money, he said.

Brussels issued a statement after that, saying there was no ban in the EU on the export of medical equipment, masks and ventilators. Rather, the EU adopted a regime of permits for the sale of medical equipment to non-EU states which may submit a request to continue deliveries to the Balkan and other foreign countries.

On 17 March, European Commission Spokesperson Ana Pisonero said the EU was looking at ways to connect the Western Balkans with the initiatives taken by the EU in curbing the coronavirus pandemic.

Now was the time for solidarity, rather than unfounded accusations, she said. "Close coordination and cooperation at the regional level and with the EU are key factors in the response to this emergency situation. In these difficult times, solidarity is needed. This is not the time for a polemic or unfounded accusations", said Pisonero.

She added that the EU was looking at how to best provide support in mitigating the social and economic consequences of the pandemic, including the possibility of redirecting EU pre-accession funds and flexibility regarding state aid rules.

The Serbian Minister of European Integration, Jadranka Joksimović, has already sent a letter to the Commission asking the EU to enable the repurposing of unspent IPA funds, to fight the coronavirus epidemic.

"We need to understand that we are pretty alone in all of this," Serbian Health Minister Zlatibor Lončar commented.

The Social Democrats group of the European Parliament also issued a statement calling on EU authorities not to ignore the western Balkan region in the fight against the coronavirus.

"[We must] include the Western Balkan countries in our common European response, and in measures to prevent and combat the effects of the epidemic," S&D vice-president Kati Piri said.

In an interview with Prva TV on March 17, Lončar said that Serbia had a system in place for 2,000 patients, while preparations are under way to accept 5,000 more in hospitals nationwide. According to official data, there are currently 65 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Serbia.

 

[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos and Frédéric Simon]

 

news.cgtn.com

China offers to help Serbia counter COVID-19

CGTN

3-4 minutes

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China on Tuesday said the Chinese side is willing to send emergency supplies and experts to Serbia and share the experience of epidemic prevention and treatment for jointly containing the COVID-19 outbreak. 

Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic Sunday proclaimed a nationwide state of emergency to fight the spread of the novel coronavirus. He branded European solidarity as a "fairytale," and praised China instead, saying it was the only country that would help. 

Noting that China and Serbia are comprehensive strategic partners with unbreakable friendship, Geng Shuang, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that sharing weal and woe and helping each other have always been the main theme of the bilateral ties. 

Chinese people will always remember the helping hand extended by the Serbian government and people at China's critical moment in the fight against the epidemic, Geng said, adding that as the outbreak now poses challenges to Serbia, China will firmly stand together with the people of Serbia to jointly battle against the COVID-19. 

Virus knows no borders, but the worst of times reveals the best in people, he stressed. 

The spokesperson also said in the face of the difficult epidemic situation, China and Serbia carry forward the spirit of building a community with a shared future for mankind staying in the same boat to overcome difficulties. 

China is willing to continue to work with the international community, including Serbia, to win the war of epidemic prevention and control and jointly safeguard regional and global public health safety. 

China's first batch of medical aid arrives in Belgrade

The first batch of medical aid from China to Serbia arrives in Belgrade, Serbia, March 15, 2020. /Photo via Serbian government website

The first batch of medical aid from China to Serbia arrives in Belgrade, Serbia, March 15, 2020. /Photo via Serbian government website

According to the Serbian government's press release Monday, the first batch of medical aid from China to Serbia arrived in Belgrade on Sunday night to help fight COVID-19. 

The shipment included 1,000 manufactured rapid test kits, which can provide results within three hours.

The assistance was coordinated by the Chinese Embassy in Serbia in cooperation with the Serbian government. 

"We are convinced that with the help of our Chinese friends, with their expertise and experience, we will be able to successfully cope with COVID-19 and that Serbia will emerge from this battle as a winner," the government said in the press release. 

As of 9:00 a.m. local time (8:00 a.m. GMT) on Tuesday, Serbia has confirmed 65 cases of COVID-19 and 335 people have been tested. 

Vucic declared a state of emergency in the country on Sunday. Measures within the state of emergency will include the closure of schools and kindergartens, while hospitals will be secured by the army. 

Foreigners won't be allowed to enter Serbia, and all Serbian returnees will be quarantined for at least 14 days, while those from infection hotbeds for 28 days. 

 

paulcraigroberts.org

Economic Effect of Coronavirus Could Be Revolutionary

5-6 minutes

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Economic Effect of Coronavirus Could Be Revolutionary

Paul Craig Roberts

Coronavirus and globalism will teach us vital lessons.  The question is whether we can learn vital lessons that do not serve the ruling interest groups and ideologies.

Coronavirus will teach us that a country without free national health care is severely handicapped. Millions of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.  They cannot afford health care premiums, deductions, and copays.  Millions have no insurance.  This means millions of people infected with coronavirus who cannot get medical help.  The morbidity from this is intolerable in any society. 

Shutdowns associated with efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus will deny income to millions of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck.  What do they do for food, shelter, transportation?  You don't have to think very long along these lines to see a very frightening scenario.

Globalism has taken down the ladders of upward mobility by exporting American middle class jobs to Asia.  A population once able to save now lives on debt, the service of which is interrupted by recession/depression and by debt service absorbing all net disposable income.

Globalism has also reduced the survivability of our society by making it dependent  on externally produced goods, the supply of which can be cut off by disruptions in other societies, by policy disagreements leading to sanctions, and by an inability to export enough to pay for imports, which is what the offshored production of US firms is.

The United States has an unprotected population and an economy in trouble.  For years corporate executives have run the companies for the benefit of their bonuses, which are largely dependent on rises in their company's share price.  Consequently, profits and borrowings have been invested in buying back the companies' shares and not in new investment in the businesses.  Corporate indebtedness is extreme and will threaten many corporations and many jobs in a downturn. Boeing is a case in point.

Economist Michael Hudson has for many decades studied the use of debt-forgiveness to restart economies killed by debt burdens.  Debt forgiveness for corporations has a different implication than debt forgiveness for individuals.  For corporations, forgiving debts lets those who financialized and indebted the economy and the population off the hook.  To avoid rewarding them for the catastrophe they produced and to prevent widespread public outcry and distrust, nationalization is implied for insolvent companies and banks. 

Nationalization would be limited to insolvent companies and financial institutions and doesn't mean that there would be no private companies or businesses.  Additional nationalization could be used to prevent strategic companies from substituting their interests for national interests, which they do when they move American jobs and factories offshore. Pharmaceuticals could be nationalized along with health care. Energy which often sacrifices the environment to its profits could be considered for nationalization.  A successful society has to have more driving it than private profit.

For most Americans nationalization is a dirty word, but it has many benefits.  For example, a national health care system reduces costs tremendously by taking profits out of the system.  Additionally, nationalized pharmaceutical companies could be made more focused on research and cures than on profit avenues.  Everyone knows how Big Pharma influences medical schools and medical practice in line with Big Pharma's approach. A more open-minded approach to medicine would be beneficial.

Socialist is another American dirty word, one that is being used against Bernie Sanders.   I have not turned into a socialist overnight.  I am simply thinking outloud.  How can the economy recover when the population and corporations are smothered by debt?  Debt forgiveness is the only way out of this debt suffocation.  Can debts be forgiven without nationalization? Not without a huge giveaway to financial mangers and Wall Street.  It is the members of the "one percent" who have received 95% of the increase in us income and wealth since 2008. Do we want to reward them for smothering the economy with debt by bailing them out without nationalizing them?

The combination of an economy covered in debt and an unprotected population is clearly revolutionary.  Do we have leadership capable of breaking out of interest group politics and ruling ideologies in order to save our society and put it on a more sustainable basis?

Or will the economic hardships be blamed on the virus, the catalyst that ignited the debt timebomb? 

 

Serbia Built New Rockets To Show NATO That It Is Still Mad About The 1999 Bombings

Serbia is also quadrupling its modern jet fighter force.

by Michael Peck

Key point: The Serbian missiles are also a warning that if NATO attacks Serbia again

Still angry after NATO's 1999 bombing campaign, Serbia has unveiled a new guided rocket that sends a message to its neighbors: if you help NATO bomb us, we'll bomb your cities.

Serbia's new Sumadija is a truck-mounted weapon that can hit targets 175 miles away. IHS Jane's describes it as a four-hundred-millimeter rocket with a 440-pound warhead and an inertial-navigation guidance system.

A defense expert in Serbia, which fought Bosnia and Croatia in the 1990s and was bombed by NATO in 1999 over the Kosovo conflict, told Russian media that those missiles will fly if Serbia's neighbors help NATO again.

"This is exactly what Serbia needed to prevent its regional neighbor's possible participation in the 1999 aggression against us," Miroslav Lazanski, a military analyst for Serbian newspaper Politika, told Russia's Sputnik News. "The Sumadija can also hit big cities in neighboring countries."

"Hopefully no such conflict will ever happen," Lazanski said. "But if it does and someone is crazy enough to make his airspace available to any third country willing to attack Serbia [like Bulgaria did in 1999], we now have a missile to reach all the strategic cities in the region."

Serbia is also quadrupling its modern jet fighter force, courtesy of Russia and Belarus. Russia is selling Serbia six MiG-29s as well as Buk medium-range antiaircraft missiles in a $640 million sale. At the same time, Belarus, a Russian ally, is donating eight more MiG-29s and two Buk antiaircraft missile systems.

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"The MiGs will be equipped with the most modern arms, radars, optical and communication systems," said Serbian defense minister Zoran Djordjevic. This will significantly boost Serbian combat air strength, which now comprises just four MiG-29s, three MiG-21s slated for retirement soon, and another fifteen Yugoslavian-made light attack jets.

Meanwhile, Serbia's archrival Croatia is shopping for a new fighter to replace the nation's aging MiG-21s. "The two leading contenders for the planned contract reportedly include Lockheed Martin's F-16 and Saab's JAS-39 Gripen," according to Defense News. "Considered alternatives comprise the French Mirage, Israel's Kfir, as well as a variant of South Korea's T-50."

However, Croatia's attempted purchase of Ukrainian MiG-21s resulted in a government corruption investigation last year.

Even with the additional MiG-29s, Serbian air strength will only be a fraction of the of the former Yugoslavia's air force before the country splintered during the early 1990s. During NATO's 1999 bombing campaign, Serbia lost five MiG-29s shot down in 1999, four by American F-15s and F-16s, and a fifth downed by a Dutch F-16.

With Serbia and Croatia rearming, is war coming to the Balkans? Some Balkan analysts say the arms purchases don't necessarily presage an arms race in the region. With Croatia a client of the West, and Serbia enjoying closer ties to Russia, it is natural for both nations to seek arms from their patrons.

But the Serbian missiles are also a warning that if NATO attacks Serbia again, the Serbs will retaliate against any neighboring state that assists the alliance.

Michael Peck is a contributing writer for the National Interest. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook. This first appeared several years ago.

Image: Wikipedia.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/serbia-built-new-rockets-show-nato-it-still-mad-about-1999-bombings-131182