The West's Dangerously Simple-Minded Narrative About Russia and China

Common Dreams   The West's Dangerously Simple-Minded Narrative About Russia and China   The overwrought fear of China and Russia is sold to a Western public  through manipulation of the facts.   August 23, 2022 By Jeffrey D. Sachs University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, New York City   The world is on the edge of nuclear catastrophe in no small part because of the failure of Western political leaders to be forthright about the causes of the escalating global conflicts. The relentless Western narrative that the West is noble while Russia and China are evil is simple-minded and extraordinarily dangerous. It is an attempt to manipulate public opinion, not to deal with very real and pressing diplomacy.  The essential narrative of the West is built into US national security strategy. The core US idea is that China and Russia are implacable foes that are "attempting to erode American security and prosperity." These countries are, according to the US, "determined to make economies less free and less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and data to repress their societies and expand their influence." The irony is that since 1980 the US has been in at least 15 overseas wars of choice (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Panama, Serbia, Syria, and Yemen just to name a few), while China has been in none, and Russia only in one (Syria) beyond the former Soviet Union. The US has military bases in 85 countries, China in 3, and Russia in 1 (Syria) beyond the former Soviet Union.  President Joe Biden has promoted this narrative, declaring that the greatest challenge of our time is the competition with the autocracies, which "seek to advance their own power, export and expand their influence around the world, and justify their repressive policies and practices as a more efficient way to address today's challenges." US security strategy is not the work of any single US president but of the US security establishment, which is largely autonomous, and operates behind a wall of secrecy.  [Continue Reading]

 

paulcraigroberts.org

Will the United States Exist After November? |

6-7 minutes

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Will the United States Exist After November?

Paul Craig Roberts

The Nazi serving as US Attorney General says he is going to get the warrant unsealed that he used as the justification for the aggressive invasion of President Trump's home by a weaponized and politicized FBI, essentially frame up artists for the corrupt Democrat party.

The question the Nazi attorney general doesn't answer, and the question the presstitutes studiously avoid asking, is why was the warrant containing the probable cause for the unprecedented invasion of an American president's home sealed in the first place?

Little doubt the official explanation will be a lie, one that the presstitutes will repeat endlessly in their attempt to turn the lie into truth via repetition, just as they did with "Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction," "Assad's use of chemical weapons," ad infinitum.   

My take on the situation is that there is no probable cause.  Here is a scenario that can unfold. The FBI has carried off some boxes of documents to which they had prior access but no interest.  Once they decide on the nature of Trump's frame up, they will insert the document that they will use to incriminate Trump into one of the boxes.  Then they will insert into the warrant the "probable cause" that justifies the home invasion.

Nonsense you say.  The federal magistrate who provided the warrant would never go along with a frame up.  How do you know?  The magistrate is the same one who, apparently following orders, let pedophile Epstein off the first time he was arrested.  Just as Democrats grasping for revolutionary power have weaponized US security agencies and the media into armies against their political opponents, they have also weaponized the courts by their appointments of judges.  Just as the FBI was engaged in trying to frame President Trump with Russiagate and with a "Jan. 6 insurrection," so are DOJ attorneys general, prosecutors and federal judges. The US justice system is as corrupt as they get.

The awake part of the population, the Americans with sufficient intelligence to be able to think independently of what CNN, NPR, NBC, the NYTimes and the rest of the presstitutes stick in their heads, are furious with Biden's rampart anti-Americanisms.  To name just a few: open borders flooding the country with immigrant-invaders and the associated welfare burdens, crime, and illegal voting; political prosecution of opponents; gratuitous conflict with Russia, China, and Iran; demonization of white Americans as racists; illegal lockdowns and vaccination mandates; the green light given to sexual perversion; the imposition of sensitivity training and Critical Race Theory on white kids in public schools and white members of the military and civil service and the imposition of quotas on their promotion. The corrupt Biden regime has done all it can to destroy equal treatment. In place of an opportunity society America now has a society of special privileges for "oppressed minorities."

People have finally had enough and polls show it.  Wipeout awaits the corrupt anti-American Democrats in November, and the Democrats with their FBI, CIA, NSA, DOJ, and media armies are not going to let it happen.

Trump must be falsely indicted and disposed of.  This has been obvious for six years–Russiagate, impeach gate, January 6 Insurrection, and now the latest from the Gestapo invasion of President Trump's home, which the media will soon give a name.

We are confronted with desperate Democrats. The crimes committed by Hillary, Justice Department officials, FBI, CIA, and Democrat congressional committees amount to no less than high treason against the United States.  The evidence is so abundant that not even the wimp Republicans could avoid using it and reestablishing integrity in the US Government and the rule of law in the United States.

If the planned frame up of Trump fails, the Biden regime will uncover a white supremacy plot  by "Trump Deplorables" to steal the November election, necessitating  federal takeover of the election to prevent its theft by white supremacists.  In this way the Democrats will again steal the election, and the persecution of their political enemies will have the tone of Hitler's elimination of the Brown Shirts and Stalin's elimination of the Bolsheviks.  

The Democrats, sitting on their army of federal prosecutors, FBI, CIA, and NSA spies and hit men, and an effective propaganda ministry masquerading as a media, have not come so close to total power that they are going to back off and suffer the consequences of their many crimes.  The question is:  can the weak-kneed, intimidated Republican Party of Mitch McConnell and John Durham do anything about it? 

In order for freedom, accountable government, and the rule of law to survive in the United States, will the American people have to take up arms against Washington just as the Donbass Russians had to do against Kiev?

If the Democrats can be prevented from again stealing the November election, perhaps more Republicans with backbone can get into office, people like Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, Marjorie Taylor Greene, South Dakota governor Kristi Noem,  and Florida governor Ron DeSantis.  Governor DeSantis has said outright that he will not permit woke prosecutors to defend criminals from justice as is the practice in many Democrat jurisdictions. DeSantis understands that the Democrats' policy of normalizing crime, sexual perversion, and open borders means the death of America.  

Although it took forever, finally many Americans have also come to this realization.  If the sentient Americans who remain  can reject being put in a defensive position by the Democrat and media enemies of America, people far more dangerous than Russians, Chinese, and Iranians, and turn aggressive like Antifa and BLM, the republic has a chance of being restored.  

Otherwise, it is good-bye America.

https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/08/12/will-the-united-states-exist-after-november/

 

 

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b92.net

Is America making a new plan for Serbia?

10-12 minutes

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There are more and more insinuations and analyses that Washington is returning its focus to the Western Balkans.

Source: Blic Wednesday, August 10, 2022 | 14:49

EPA/EFE/VALDRIN XHEMAJ

Will the USA once again have the strongest influence in the Western Balkans - this is the question that arises after a group of US senators from the Democratic and Republican parties presented a draft law that aims to support economic development, trade and the fight against corruption in our region.

It is about a draft law known as the Law on Democracy and Prosperity of the Western Balkans, and along with it the American senators also released a draft law on special sanctions to suppress destabilizing activities in the Western Balkans.

Both of these legal acts, which were supported by both Democrats and Republicans, indicate that the USA is following everything that happens in the Western Balkans with great attention and not only that, but wants to influence the economic, political and every other process in this region.

Democratic Senator Zhanna Shahin, who introduced both draft laws, pointed out that the initiative comes as a result of increased concern in the Western Balkans over the war in Ukraine. As she said, the relationship of the USA towards the region is crucial at this moment where "Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions to spread malignant influence throughout Eastern Europe are evident", which is why the region's rapprochement with the EU and NATO should be strengthened.

"The new bipartisan law strengthens trade and investment between the USA and the Western Balkans, while fighting corruption, through the adoption of a special law for sanctions against destabilizing actors. All this paves the way for wider Euro-Atlantic integrations," said Shahin.

US senators see this bill as an opportunity to further strengthen relations between the US and the Western Balkans, expand economic opportunities and support efforts to improve democracy and eradicate corruption.

Support for "Open Balkans"

Also, in the draft law, American senators supported the common regional market in the Western Balkans and the "Open Balkans" initiative, which, as they point out, has great potential for improving economic conditions in the region.

Whether and what can change in the Western Balkans after this draft law in the USA is a topic that will be relevant in the coming months and years in the entire region.

They neglected the region a bit

The president of the "Libek" educational and research center, Miloš Nikolić, points out that the proposal of this law in a way represents "the awakening of America in relation to the Western Balkans".

"The impression of the vulnerability of our region was only reinforced by the invasion of Ukraine. There was a justified impression that the US somewhat neglected this region, and that other great powers, primarily Russia and China, took advantage of this in the previous decade," Nikolić emphasizes for "Blic". As he says, that proposal has several layers - economic, security, energy, infrastructural, educational-cultural, media aspects.

"It is a comprehensive proposal to strengthen the strategic presence of the USA in our region in the long term. Some of the goals of the proposal are more urgent, such as, for example, the position of the EUFOR mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Others focus on regulating the area of sanctions, which is partially included in the decrees of the President of the USA", Nikolić assesses.

Economic support is the most important

Nikolić believes that for Serbia, the most important goals of the American draft laws are related to "support in the field of building economic prosperity and strengthening democratic institutions, that is, support in the field of regional infrastructure projects".

"The adoption of a five-year strategy is foreseen here. The support that our companies and the private sector, and above all small and medium-sized companies, can receive in this sense can be very significant for the economy. In this context, it is important to emphasize that the proposal explicitly underlines the great potential and initiatives of the Open Balkans. I would also particularly like to point out that the importance of educational cooperation, partnerships between universities and the importance of youth cooperation is recognized," underlines Nikolić.

A stronger instrument for combating corruption

Suzana Grubješić from the Center for Foreign Policy also shares the opinion that the war in Ukraine and Russian aggression have returned the focus of the USA to the Western Balkans because, as she says, the integration of the region into Euro-Atlantic structures remains unfinished business.

"Secondly, the US is paying more and more attention to China's presence in the region, which could also imply increased US engagement," Grubješić assesses. As she says, the US will create new anti-corruption initiatives that will cover the entire region.

"It will expand the powers for the American sanctioning of the corrupt, as well as the construction of new regional economic initiatives that should improve the region's competitiveness on the global market," Grubješić underlines.

Our interlocutor reiterates that in June of last year, U.S. President Joe Biden passed a decree with similar content as these draft laws.

"The initiative of six senators from both American parties gives the United States of America a stronger instrument for combating corruption and Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Balkans," concludes Grubješić.

About corruption

"Libek" President Miloš Nikolić is not optimistic that the American bills will contribute much to the fight against corruption in the Western Balkans.

"The fight against corruption is something that must not be seen as homework from the outside, but as the authentic will of our domestic political actors. This proposal implies certain mechanisms to support that will. But this remains something that primarily depends on the will of the elected politicians within the countries of our region and the foreseen sanctions will not be able to change that much," Nikolić apostrophizes.

Russian influence is decreasing

Nikolić believes that even without these American laws, Russian influence in the Balkans "will inevitably decrease in the long term due to the changed geopolitical circumstances on our continent."

"The idea behind this proposal is how to ensure that due to this historic retreat, Putin's Russia does not cause fractures that could politically and security wise destabilize the region. This proposal aims to fill strategic voids before others. Therefore, a wide range of support and cooperation opportunities are offered , which is not only of the declarative type," believes Nikolić.

 

jpost.com

Senior Nazi hunter: Let Serbian President visit death camp in Croatia

By ZVIKA KLEIN

6-7 minutes

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Diplomatic tensions escalated between Serbia and Croatia on Sunday since Zagreb would not allow the Serbian president to visit a Holocaust memorial site in Jasenovac, which was once considered the "Croatian Auschwitz."

Jasenovac was a concentration camp established in the then-Independent State of Croatia (NDH) in occupied Yugoslavia during World War II. The camp operated as part of the then-Ustase regime which was the only country that collaborated with the Nazis in operating their own concentration and death camps. The Jasenovac camp killed hundreds of thousands of Serbs, Jews and smaller ethnic groups such as Roma.

Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic asked to visit Croatia privately and pay tribute to his grandfather that was murdered at the Jasenovac camp. Yet, Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlić-Radman responded to the reports in the media of this planned visit and said that "the president of a country is a protected person and such an arrival requires the involvement of the Croatian authorities," according to local Croatian media.

Sources in Croatia's Foreign Ministry also were quoted saying, "The fact that Croatia has not been officially notified about the visit is unacceptable."

"He's not only coming as the President of Serbia, he's coming as a grandson of a victim and this is a very sensitive issue because the largest group of victims in Jasenovac concentration camp was Serbs, not Jews."

Efraim Zuroff, director of the Simon Wiesenthal Center office in Jerusalem

Ognjen Kraus, leader of Croatia's Jewish community, lays a wreath on the monument of Fascist victims, mostly Jews, Serbs and gypsies, during a commemoration held at the site of the former World War Two concentration camp in Jasenovac April 19, 1998 (credit: REUTERS)

According to reports, Vucic has canceled the visit and Serbia officials explained that the reason is "for the sake of good relations."

In addition, Croatia officials said that they heard of this visit through "unofficial" sources and not through diplomatic channels as is usually the protocol. Gerlich Redman was also quoted saying that they see the media reports around the planned Vucic visit as a "provocation," which, in his view, "do not honor the victims [of the Jasenovac camp]."

The Simon Wiesenthal Center weighs in

Yet, a few Jewish organizations have decided to support Vucic, including The Simon Wiesenthal Center. Efraim Zuroff, director of the Simon Wiesenthal Center office in Jerusalem, an American-Israeli historian and Nazi hunter, told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday that "It's important to note that Vucic's grandfather and other relatives were killed by the Ustase," Zuroff said of Ustase, a Croatian fascist organization, formally known as the Croatian Revolutionary Movement. According to historians, Ustase members murdered hundreds of thousands of Jews, Serbs and Roma during the Holocaust.

"So, in other words, he's not only coming as the president of Serbia, he's coming as a grandson of a victim and this is a very sensitive issue because the largest group of victims in Jasenovac concentration camp was Serbs, not Jews." Zuroff explained that there were also "approximately 18,000 Jews and thousands of Roma who were killed, as well as Croatian antifascists – those were the four targets in this camp."

ZUROFF FURTHER said that the Jasenovac concentration camp can be considered, in some ways, as a death camp, even though it hasn't been treated as such historically. He added that "People normally talk about death camps only in Poland, but this camp [Jasenovac] had a gas chamber. Most of the people were not killed in the gas chamber, yet they were killed in the most horrible ways imaginable: They used to press on people's skulls until their eyes popped out and used to cut pregnant women's stomachs open in order to torture them. They even devised a dagger, which they called the 'Serb killer,' which supposedly made it more painful to the victim than usual."

Zuroff thinks that anyone should be allowed to visit the Jasenovac concentration camp, even if they aren't the Serbian president, but he actually sees great importance in having a Serbian leader from a family that was directly influenced by the horrors of the camp – visit the memorial site. "It's important to let anyone visit [the camp] and it's especially important that the president of Serbia has the permission to go there as the leader of the Serbian people, as well as the grandson of a victim," Zuroff stated.

"On one level, you could say it's a political issue, but it's also a personal issue, a human rights issue," Zuroff stressed.

Zuroff says that the Ustase organization was in some ways the "ISIS of that generation."

Vucic's side of the story was published on the official website of his political party, the Serbian Progressive Party. "The President stated that the information that he was banned from going to Jasenovac camp first appeared in the Croatian media, while there was no reaction from Serbia because our country wanted to send a note of silent protest to the Croatian ambassador," a statement said. It continued with the explanation that "this happened because they thought that we would go public, even though we wanted to deal with this issue quietly."

"It goes without saying that I am to blame," the Serbian President is quoted remarking ironically and showing the people in the room with him the headlines in the Croatian media that reported on his interest to visit the memorial site and by this trying to cause chaos. "Imagine that chaos, maybe because my ribbon would be in the colors of the Serbian flag in accordance with the suffering people in Jasenovac, but to call it chaos and provocation was excessive and I was surprised," Vucic said.

Zuroff concluded by saying to the Post that "Vucic has already asked to visit the Jasenovac death camp twice, before this specific diplomatic incident. There is no reason in this world to not allow him to visit the site where his family was brutally murdered."

 

BIG WIN in Maryland SERBS Primary!

BIG WIN in Maryland Primary!

 

BRAVO GORDANA !!!!

 

Serbian American Voices Must Be Heard!       Congratulations to our own Serbian American Gordana Schifanelli on a big primary WIN, along with Del. Dan Cox. This is the winning ticket in November for MD Governor and Lt. Governor.  Thanks to the Maryland Serbs for their efforts! Dan Cox for Governor (coxforfreedom.com) Gordana Schifanelli (restorefreedoms.com)       CONTRIBUTE     CALL TO ACTION - GET INVOLVED NOW   Please share this newsletter and information with your fellow Patriots, family and friends   Get involved with the SAVA PAC by becoming a Leader in your state   Help us identify candidates SAVA PAC can support on behalf of our community   Please Make a Contribution to help our grassroots mission   Send us ideas, suggestions, or concerns pertaining to the Serbian-American issues   *We are a grassroots organization seeking to mobilize and civically engage our community.     VISIT OUR WEBSITE   Copyright © *2021* *SERBIAN AMERICAN VOTERS ALLIANCE*, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: P.O. BOX 178491 ~ Chicago, IL 60617 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.

rferl.org

Montenegrin PM Signs Basic Agreement With Serbian Orthodox Church

RFE/RL's Balkan Service

74-94 minutes

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The head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Porfirije (left), and Montenegrin Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic meet in June.

Montenegrin Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic has signed a basic agreement on relations between the government in Podgorica and the Serbian Orthodox Church.

Abazovic signed the agreement, which covers sensitive relations between the government and the church, after more than four hours of discussions on July 8. Thirteen ministers voted for the adoption of the agreement, five voted against, and three were absent.

Abazovic negotiated the agreement with Serbian Orthodox Patriarch Porfirije. A draft of the agreement was published last week after which the patriarch said the new agreement would mark a "crowning" of the normalization of relations between Montenegro and his church.

Some protests broke out in Podgorica after Abazovic's announcement alongside the Serbian patriarch.

Deputy Prime Minister Rasko Konjevic said on July 8 that, with the adoption of the basic agreement, Abazovic would lose the parliamentary majority that has supported his government so far.

"The contract is not in accordance with the constitution, and the preamble is not in accordance with historical facts," Konjevic said. "I am informing you that the government has lost its legitimacy, and after consultations a request will be submitted to shorten the mandate of the assembly -- that is, to hold extraordinary elections."

He asserted that the text was not properly adopted because 13 votes was not a two-thirds majority of the 21 ministers.

Abazovic disputed Konjevic's statement but said a new vote could be held because three ministers were absent when the vote took place.

The Serbian Orthodox Church has considerable influence in Montenegro and within the ruling coalition. A majority of Montenegrins worship under the auspices of the Serbian Orthodox Church, which has an arm based in Cetinje called the Metropolitanate of Montenegro and the Littoral.

The basic agreement outlines the obligations of the state and institutions toward the church.

It recognizes Serbian Orthodox subjectivity six centuries further back than the church is afforded in Serbia itself, extends extraterritoriality of religious buildings, opens the possibility of religious teaching in public schools, and gives the church legal status that in some areas is equal to state institutions.

Critics have complained about the criteria it sets for settling registration disputes over property. The church controls hundreds of properties throughout Montenegro.

Montenegro's largest ruling party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), and the Social Democrats (SDP) criticized a draft of the basic agreement published on June 28 as overly generous toward the Serbian church.

The basic agreement must now be sent to the Synod of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Belgrade, which must also accept it.

With reporting by Jasna Vukicevic

b92.net

"Danger for the whole of Europe. If Pandora's box opens, it won't be good for anyone"

6-7 minutes

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Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia's Chief, Sergey Naryshkin, assessed that Polish plans to establish control over western Ukraine are dangerous for Europe.

Source: B92 Friday, July 8, 2022 | 17:05

EPA-EFE/ROMAN PILIPEY

As he said, that would open Pandora's box and then it would not be good for anyone.

"It's definitely dangerous. It's dangerous for Ukraine, it's dangerous for all of Europe. The thing is that on the European continent there are quite a few points where neighbors are silently claiming the territory of neighboring countries," Naryshkin told reporters after a meeting with the leadership of the KGB of Belarus.

As reported by Sputnik, according to his words, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia is carefully monitoring what is happening.

"If Poland opens that Pandora's box, it will not be good for anyone. It is an essential way to make the situation on the European continent even more difficult and, of course, to reduce the level of international security," said Naryshkin.

He warned last week that the Polish leadership is analyzing scenarios for the de facto partition of Ukraine and that the Polish authorities are convinced that the U.S. and Great Britain will be forced to support the plan for the partition of Ukraine.

Naryshkin previously spoke about Poland's attempt to repeat the historic "agreement" after the end of the First World War, when the collective West, embodied in the Entente powers, recognized Warsaw's right to first occupy part of Ukraine to protect the population from the "Bolshevik danger" and then to include those territories in the composition of the Polish state.

Naryshkin also assessed that, after the summit that NATO recently held in Madrid, it became clear that NATO is waging a hybrid war against Russia and Belarus.

"During the NATO summit in Madrid, which was held recently, it can be said that the masks fell off. It is obvious to us that the NATO bloc is waging a hybrid war against both Russia and our ally - Belarus," said Naryshkin.

 

rt.com

West wants to 'absolve' itself from its own crimes – Serbia

RT

4-5 minutes

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By pressuring Belgrade to sanction Moscow, Western states are seeking to whitewash their own sins, the interior minister says

It is not in Serbia's interests to reduce cooperation with Russia and to "absolve" the West of its crimes, the interior minister says

Serbia says it is not interested in diminishing its "closeness and cooperation" with Moscow, adding that by trying to force Belgrade to impose sanctions on Russia, the West simply seeks to "absolve" itself from its own crimes.

In an interview with the newspaper Novosti published on Sunday, Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin said that throughout history, Serbs have always been "expected to do something for others" and to neglect their own interests.

"It is not in Serbia's interest to participate in the conflicts of the greats, and it is not in Serbia's interest to diminish the closeness and cooperation with Russia and its leadership," the minister said.

He claimed that when Western countries ask Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia, they know it would not mean much for Russia from an economic perspective, but would serve as a significant moral blow.

"Those who bombed us know that the moral greatness of Serbia is disproportionate to its firepower, and that is why they need that little tormented Serbia, that brave victim, to be with them," he said.

In his opinion, the US and its allies "have everything but morals" and so they want Serbia "to absolve them of the crimes they have committed and to absolve them of the sins of violating international law."

"Unlike Western admirers of the right to vote and democracy, despotic Russia and China have never asked us to impose sanctions on the EU or US and accept their choice as our own," Vulin said, adding that any "anti-Russian hysteria is always anti-Serbian."

The minister also noted that his country does not want Russia to be defeated in Ukraine.

"The defeat of Russia would be felt with all its might in all positions of Serbia, as it always has been," he said.

Vulin hailed Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic for "showing strength that exceeds the position of the president of a small country" in opposing the sanctions on Russia.

"Vucic is not a little Russian, he is a great Serb," he added.

The US, EU, UK, and many other countries view Russia's military operation in Ukraine as an act of unprovoked aggression and responded by imposing sweeping sanctions on Moscow.

On Friday, at a press conference with the Serbian president, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Serbia must follow the EU's lead in sanctioning Russia, and recognize the breakaway province of Kosovo as an independent state if it hopes to join the bloc someday.

Vucic reiterated that sanctioning Russia would be difficult for Belgrade. Earlier this week, he told Serbian TV that the EU's oil embargo has already cost $600 million in higher prices.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the sanctions have backfired on the West, citing the inflation and shortages that the US and EU governments are now trying to blame on Moscow. The following day, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the sanctions have indeed made a "huge difference to food and energy prices" amid record-setting inflation.

 

https://www.theguardian/ Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops

theguardian.com

Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops | Larry Elliott

Larry Elliott

6-7 minutes

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It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed.

Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily.

The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn't happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.

There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that's hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia's oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.

When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

That's not to say the sanctions are pain-free for Russia. The International Monetary Fund estimates the economy will shrink by 8.5% this year as imports from the west collapse. Russia has stockpiles of goods essential to keep its economy going, but over time they will be used up.

But Europe is only gradually weaning itself off its dependency on Russian energy, and so an immediate financial crisis for Putin has been averted. The rouble – courtesy of capital controls and a healthy trade surplus – is strong. The Kremlin has time to find alternative sources of spare parts and components from countries willing to circumvent western sanctions.

When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.

These concerns are entirely justified. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has given an added boost to already strong price pressures. The UK's annual inflation rate stands at 9% – its highest in 40 years – petrol prices have hit a record high and the energy price cap is expected to increase by £700-800 a year in October. Rishi Sunak's latest support package to cope with the cost-of-living crisis was the third from the chancellor in four months – and there will be more to come later in the year.

As a result of the war, western economies face a period of slow or negative growth and rising inflation – a return to the stagflation of the 1970s. Central banks – including the Bank of England – feel they have to respond to near double-digit inflation by raising interest rates. Unemployment is set to rise. Other European countries face the same problems, if not more so, since most of them are more dependent on Russian gas than is the UK.

The problems facing the world's poorer countries are of a different order of magnitude. For some of them the issue is not stagflation, but starvation, as a result of wheat supplies from Ukraine's Black Sea ports being blocked.

As David Beasley, the executive director of the World Food Programme put it: "Right now, Ukraine's grain silos are full. At the same time, 44 million people around the world are marching towards starvation."

In every multilateral organisation – the IMF, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations – fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe. The position is simple: unless developing nations are energy exporters themselves, they face a triple whammy in which fuel and food crises trigger financial crises. Faced with the choice of feeding their populations or paying their international creditors, governments will opt for the former. Sri Lanka was the first country since the Russian invasion to default on its debts, but is unlikely to be the last. The world appears closer to a full-blown debt crisis than at any time since the 1990s.

Putin has rightly been condemned for "weaponising" food, but his willingness to do so should come as no surprise. From the start, the Russian president has been playing a long game, waiting for the international coalition against him to fragment. The Kremlin thinks Russia's threshold for economic pain is higher than the west's, and it is probably right about that.

If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden's decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.

Complete defeat for Putin on the battlefield is one way the war could end, although as things stand that doesn't appear all that likely. There are other possible outcomes. One is that the economic blockade eventually works, with ever-tougher sanctions forcing Russia to back down. Another is a negotiated settlement.

Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.

The atrocities committed by Russian troops mean compromising with the Kremlin is currently hard to swallow, but economic reality suggests only one thing: sooner or later a deal will be struck.

• Larry Elliott is the Guardian's economics editor

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The Dystopian WHO Stealth Coup

 

Hello Dear Readers, The World Health Organization, today a "public-private partnership" in which Big Pharma and the Bill Gates Foundation are major shareholders, is in the midst of a brazen power grab with full support of the USA Biden Administration. If approved as it seems likely, national health officials will no longer have control over national or local health conditions. Power will go to the head of WHO to mandate measures such as lockdowns or even digital vaccination or health IDs that could be used to deny travel or even work if holders refuse WHO mandated vaccines or other measures. If this sounds dystopian, it is. I share with you the details here. If you have not yet done so, please consider a donation of support for my online voice. The relentless censorship of the Internet and social media by the private corporate social media companies since the 2020 Corona virus, and now the war in Ukraine, is alarming and damaging and can only be compared with book burnings in the Germany of the 1930s, or the Medieval Inquisitions of the Catholic Church with book burnings and torture of heretics.   I thank you for your interest and support, William Engdahl www.williamengdahl.com     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           WHO Stealth Coup to Dictate Global Health Agenda of Gates, Big Pharma By F. William Engdahl                                                                                                           16 May, 2022   Acting on an initiative from the Biden Administration, by November 2022, conveniently at the onset of the next flu season in the northern hemisphere, the World Health Organization, barring a miracle, will impose an unprecedented top-down control over the national health regulations and measures of the entire planet. In what amounts to a stealth coup d'etat, WHO will get draconian new powers to override national sovereignty in 194 UN member countries, and to dictate their health measures with force of international law. It is sometimes referred to as the WHO Pandemic Treaty but it is far more. Worse, most of the WHO budget comes from private vaccine-tied foundations like the Gates Foundation or from Big Pharma, a massive conflict of interest.     Draconian New WHO Powers Doing something with stealth means doing it in a secretive or concealed manner, to prevent it being widely known and possibly opposed. This applies to the proposal given by the Biden Administration to the Geneva WHO in January 18, 2022 according to official WHO documents. The WHO hid the details of the US "amendments" for almost three months, until 12 April, just a month before the relevant body of the WHO meets to approve the radical measures. Moreover, rather than the previous 18 month waiting time to become treaty in international law, only 6 months are used this time. This is a bum's rush. The US proposal is backed by every EU country and in total 47 countries ensuring almost certain passage. The proposals, officially titled, "Strengthening WHO preparedness for and response to health emergencies: Proposal for amendments to the International Health Regulations," were submitted by Assistant Secretary for Global Affairs (OGA) in the US Department of Health and Human Services, Loyce Pace, as "amendments" to a previously ratified 2005 WHO International Health Regulations treaty. [i] The WHO defines that 2005 treaty thus: "the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) provide an overarching legal framework that defines countries' rights and obligations in handling public health events and emergencies that have the potential to cross borders. The IHR are an instrument of international law that is legally-binding on 196 countries, including the 194 WHO Member States." (emphasis added). Ms Pace came to the Biden Administration from heading the Global Health Council, whose members include the most corrupt names in Big Pharma including Pfizer, Lilly, Merck, J&J, Abbott, Bill Gates-funded AVAC, to name a few. Her proposals for the radical transformation of WHO "pandemic" and epidemic powers, could easily have been written by Gates and Big Pharma. Before we look at what the Loyce Pace "amendments" will do to empower the transformation of WHO into a global health dictatorship with unprecedented powers to overrule judgments of any national governments, one stealthy legal issue must be noted. By disguising a complete change in the 2005 WHO treaty powers as mere "amendments" to a ratified treaty, WHO claims, along with the Biden Administration, that the approval of the amendments requires no new ratification debate by member governments. This is stealth. With no national debate by elected representatives, the unelected WHO will become a global superpower over life and death in the future. Washington and WHO have deliberately restricted the process of public participation to ram this through.   A De Facto New Law As required, the WHO finally published the US "amendments." It shows the deletions and as well the new additions. [ii] What the Biden Administration changes do is to transform a previously advisory role for the WHO to national governments on not only pandemic responses but also everything tied to national "health," with an entirely new power to override national health agencies if the WHO Director General, now Tedros Adhanom, determines. The US Biden Administration and WHO have colluded to create an entirely new treaty which will shift all health decisions from a national or local level to Geneva, Switzerland and WHO. Typical of the Washington amendments to the existing WHO Treaty is Article 9. The US change is to insert WHO "shall" and delete "may": "If the State Party does not accept the offer of collaboration within 48 hours, WHO shall may…,. In the same article now deleted is "offer of collaboration by WHO, taking into account the views of the State Party concerned…" The views or judgment of say, Germany or India, or USA health authorities become irrelevant. WHO will be able to override national experts and dictate as international law its mandates for any and all future pandemics as well as even epidemics or even local health issues. [iii] Moreover, in the new proposed Article 12 on "Determination of a public health emergency of international concern, public health emergency of regional concern, or intermediate health alert," WHO head--now Tedros in his new 5-year term--alone can decide to declare an emergency, even without agreement of the member state.  The WHO head will then consult his relevant WHO "Emergency Committee" on Polio, Ebola, Bird Flu, Covid or whatever they declare to be a problem.  [iv] In short this is a global dictatorship over citizen health by one of the most corrupt health bodies in the world. The members of a given WHO Emergency Committee are chosen under opaque procedures and typically, as in the current one on polio, many members are tied to the various Gates Foundation fronts like GAVI or CEPI. Yet the selection process is entirely opaque and internal to WHO. Among other powers the new Pandemic Treaty will give Tedros and WHO the power to mandate vaccine passports and COVID jabs worldwide. They are working on the creation of a global vaccine passport/digital identity program.  Under the new "Pandemic Treaty", when people are harmed by the WHO's health policies, there's no accountability. The WHO has diplomatic immunity. [v] Former WHO senior employee and whistleblower, Astrid Stuckelberger, now a scientist at the Institute of Global Health of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva, noted, "if the new Pandemic Treaty is adopted by member states, "this means that the WHO's Constitution (as per Article 9) will take precedence over each country's constitution during natural disasters or pandemics. In other words, the WHO will be dictating to other countries, no longer making recommendations." [vi]   Who is WHO? The Director General of WHO would have the ultimate power under the new rules, to determine for example if say, Brazil or Germany or USA must impose a Shanghai-style pandemic lockdown or any other measures it decides. This is not good. Especially when the head of WHO, Tedros, from the Tigray region of Ethiopia, is a former member of the Politburo of the designated terrorist (then by Washington) Marxist organization, the Tigray People's Liberation Front. He holds no medical degree, the first in WHO director-general history without such. He has a PhD in Community Health, definitely a vague field, hardly medical qualification for a global health czar. Among his published scientific papers are titles such as "The effects of dams on malaria transmission in Tigray Region." He reportedly got his WHO job in 2017 via backing from Bill Gates, the largest private donor to WHO. As Ethiopia Minister of Health in the Tigray-led dictatorship, Tedros was involved in a scandalous coverup of three major cholera outbreaks in the country in 2006, 2009 and 2011. An investigative report published by the Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health found that during one major cholera outbreak, "Despite laboratory identification of V cholerae as the cause of the acute watery diarrhea (AWD), the Government of Ethiopia (Tedros) decided not to declare a "cholera outbreak" for fear of economic repercussions resulting from trade embargos and decreased tourism. Further, the government, in disregard of International Health Regulations (WHO), continually refused to declare a cholera epidemic and largely declined international assistance." [vii] As Ethiopian Health and later Foreign Minister Tedros was accused of systematic ethnic cleansing against rival tribes in the country, especially Amharas, denying opposition supporters World Bank and other food aid, as well as nepotism, diversion of international funds for hospital construction into political support for his minority party. [viii] Ironically this is the opposite of the new WHO law Tedros backs today. On 22 September 2021 Merkel's Germany proposed Tedros for a further term without opposition.   WHO, Gates, GERM  A hint of what's in store under the new rules was given by WHO's largest donor (including his GAVI), the self-appointed "Globalist Everything Czar", Bill Gates. On his April 22 blog entry, Gates proposes something amusingly with the acronym GERM -- Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization—team. It would have a "permanent organization of experts who are fully paid and prepared to mount a coordinated response to a dangerous outbreak at any time." He says his model is the Hollywood movie, Outbreak. "The team's disease monitoring experts would look for potential outbreaks. Once it spots one, GERM should have the ability to declare an outbreak…" It would be coordinated by, of course, Tedros' WHO: "The work would be coordinated by the WHO, the only group that can give it global credibility." [ix] A dystopian notion of what could take place is the ongoing fake "Avian Flu" epidemic, H5N1, that is causing tens of millions of chickens to be terminated worldwide if even one chick tests positive for the disease. The test is the same fraudulent PCR test used to detect covid19. Recently, Dr Robert Redfield, Trump's head of CDC, gave an interview where he "predicted" that Bird Flu will jump to humans and be highly fatal in the coming "Great Pandemic," for which Covid19 was a mere warm-up. Redfield declared in a March 2022 interview, "I think we have to recognize – I've always said that I think the Covid pandemic was a wakeup call. I don't believe it's the great pandemic. I believe the great pandemic is still in the future, and that's going to be a bird flu pandemic for man. It's gonna have significant mortality in the 10-50% range. It's gonna be trouble."[x] Under the new WHO dictatorial powers, WHO could declare a health emergency on such a fraud regardless of contrary evidence.          Endnotes: [i] WHO, Strengthening WHO preparedness for and response to health emergencies: Proposal for amendments to the International Health Regulations, 12 April, 2022, SEVENTY FIFTH WORLD HEALTH ASSEMBLY A75/18 Provisional agenda item 16.2, https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA75/A75_18-en.pdf#page=4 .   [ii] Ibid.   [iii] Ibid.   [iv] Ibid.   [v] The Exposé, The W.H.O's proposed 'Pandemic Treaty' is a huge threat to the Freedom of ordinary, hardworking people, April 26, 2022, https://expose-news.com/2022/04/26/who-pandemic-treaty-threat-to-your-freedom/   [vi] Katja Hamilton, WHO Pandemic Treaty The makings of a New World Order? 8 March 2022, https://www.bizcommunity.com/Article/196/148/225648.html   [vii] OPride Staff,  The case against WHO director general candidate Tedros Adhanom, May 11, 2017, https://www.opride.com/2017/05/11/case-director-general-candidate-tedros-adhanom/   [viii] Ibid.   [ix] Bill Gates, Meet the GERM team, April 30, 2022, https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Meet-the-GERM-team   [x] Gary D. Barnett, The Next 'Great Pandemic:' Astronomical Death Counts Now Being Telegraphed and Marketed to the Public,  April 14, 2022, https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/04/gary-d-barnett/the-next-great-pandemic-astronomical-death-counts-now-being-telegraphed-and-marketed-to-the-public/

 

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