Belgrade
- The Serbian government coalition, forged three months ago under huge
pressure from the West, already seems worn out over key issues and has been
sending contradictory, confusing signals ahead of crucial decisions on the
country's future status. The uneasy alliance of President Boris Tadic's
Democratic Party (DS) and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic
Party of Serbia (DSS) was produced to avert the rise of ultra-nationalists to
power or repeat elections and reset the country's course towards NATO and the
European Union.
But
Kostunica, a nationalist himself, has become an increasingly loud Russophile,
while the pro-Western Tadic appears helplessly carried away in a bid to
remain moderate amid resurging nationalist rhetoric, reminiscent of the
1990s.
Despite
winning far more votes in January's polls than the DSS, Tadic and the DS have
been weakened by the Kosovo rhetoric, a nationalist trademark, to the point
of being blackmailed into conceding the post of prime minister to Kostunica
in May.
It
has become worse for the DS since. Most recently, in a dangerous populist
turn, the DSS has started pushing for Serbia's turn away from the West and
even hinted at a possible violent response from Belgrade in case Kosovo
declares independence.
Kosovo,
where Serbia has had no say in government since NATO ousted it in 1999 to
stop bloodshed, has been the sacred source of rhetoric for Serbian
nationalists.
But
the breakaway province is vastly dominated by majority Albanians who impatiently
expect independence this year - which would force Serbian politicians to do
something, one way or another.
After
eight years of life in a diplomatic and economic limbo, the Albanians expect
the West, particularly the United States, to promote what is still nominally
Serbia's province into a sovereign state.
That
outcome would degrade any pro-Western leader into a traitor, again in a
manoeuvre commonly practised during the Slobodan Milosevic era.
Kosovo
independence appeared to be on the verge of happening already in mid-2007,
but Serbia's awakened ally Russia blocked the process in the United Nations
and delayed the decision on Kosovo at least until mid-December by forcing
three more months of talks.
Serbs
and Albanians will certainly not find a mutually acceptable solution - which
everybody hopes for, but nobody expects - as the Serbs are adamantly
insisting on sovereignty over Kosovo and the Albanians want nothing less than
independence.
Meanwhile,
Kostunica has been gushing love for Moscow, offering the national economy to
Russian investors, while launching an anti- NATO campaign, accusing the
alliance of aiming to build a "NATO state" in Kosovo.
In
another populist move, his DSS launched an initiative to block Serbia's
approach to NATO.
The
hostility peaked when the state secretary for Kosovo and DSS cadre, Dusan
Prorokovic, hinted that Serbia could deploy its armed forces to the UN-run
and NATO-protected territory to prevent independence.
That
time Washington reacted, saying Thursday that it would "seek
clarification" of the "inflammatory and unfortunate" remark.
While
Kostunica remained silent, Defence Minister Dragan Sutanovac, the most
hawkish advocate of Belgrade's western course among the DS leaders, verbally
slapped Prorokovic for "waving an empty gun" and warned him to
"keep his nose in his own ministry."
While
a reaction to the possible declaration of Kosovo's independence has not been
defined, "there will be no unilateral military response to it,"
Sutanovac told Friday's edition of the daily Blic.
He
also assured that Serbia's course toward NATO was not in question, but the
damage may have already been inflicted and the tear in the ruling coalition
widened.
It
was the same disjointed message with Serbia's former sister republic
Montenegro, which formally sought an apology Thursday after one of
Kostunica's advisors, Aleksandar Simic, denigrated it.
Criticizing
Montenegro's refusal to allow entry to a Serbian Orthodox priest suspected of
aiding war crime suspects, Simic said Montenegro was a
"quasi-state."
Rubbing
salt into the wound, a Serbian cabinet minister failed to show up for a
scheduled meeting with a Montenegrin host, offering no explanation other than
he was backing the priest.
Montenegro
became independent last year, enraging Serbian nationalists, including
Kostunica.
Reflecting
his bitterness, Belgrade has still not sent an ambassador to Podgorica,
though Tadic and the DS tried very hard to remain friendly with it.
Podgorica
reacted to the insults with a protest note, handed by its own ambassador to
Belgrade, but the only apology, informal so far, came from a DS official.
"Serbia
recognizes and respects Montenegro as a state and is building good
neighbourly relations,' Vice Premier Bozidar Djelic said in an interview.
"I apologize to Montenegrins."
Time
will show whether the DS will manage to save the potatoes of Kosovo, NATO,
Montenegro and other issues thrown into the fire by DSS populists.
Presidential
and local elections, due this year, will show if Serbs will reward or punish
the effort to appease.
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