Russia to rescue Serbia from NATO's claws

05.04.2011

 

Serbia may become one of the largest buyers of Russian arms. This can become possible after Vladimir Putin's recent visit to the country. Belgrade may receive a ten-billion-dollar loan soon. Three billion dollars of the amount will be spent to modernize outdated Soviet arms and purchase state-of-the-art Russian arms.

What exactly do the Serbs want to buy from Russia? No official statement on the matter has been made during Putin's visit. However, both Russian and Serbian experts discuss the subject very actively.

The Blic, a Serbian newspaper, wrote that the security of the country was in danger because of the deplorable situation in the Air Force of the country. Prior to the war of 1999, up to 80 percent of the Serbian Air Force consisted of outdated aircraft, such as MiG-21 fighters. Most of MiG-29 planes were either downed or could not be used because of the shortage of spare parts.

In the beginning of 2010, the Serbian Defense Ministry supposedly sent inquiries to world's leading manufacturers of fourth-generation fighter jets. Pursuant to that information, the Serbs were going to conduct a tender to replace outdated aircraft.

They were presumably interested in American F-16 and F-18 fighter jets, Swedish Gripens, French Rafales and Eurofighters, as well as Russian MiG-29M and Su-30. Apparently, the Russian fighters are the priority from the point of view of price-quality ratio.

The Serbian missile defense system was practically destroyed during the war in 1999. Moreover, the results of the war showed that it was impossible to repulse the aggression of such an enemy as NATO with the use of missile complexes developed during the 1960s and the 1970s. Serbia may purchase two divisions of Russia's renowned S-300 systems or an export variant of S-400.

Practically all radar stations in the country were also destroyed during the war. The country was deprived of the opportunity to control its own air space. This gives every reason to believe that Belgrade may purchase Russian radar stations as well.

However, thee billion dollars is not enough to modernize the air force, to rebuild the missile defense system and reequip radar troops. Two divisions of S-300 systems will not improve the situation. What can these two divisions do if the alliance can use hundreds of its fighter jets?

Will NATO let Serbia rearm the army at all? The administration of the alliance previously announced the intention to cut the Serbian armed forces to 21,000 men.

Viktor Litovkin, an observer with Independent Military Survey newspaper said in an interview with Pravda.Ru that NATO would not impede Serbia's initiative to rearm its armed forces with the use of Russian arms. Belgrade wants to join the alliance, but the possession of Russian hardware did not become an obstacle for other countries of Europe in obtaining NATO membership. Take a look at Greece, for example. This country is a member of NATO, but it still buys S-300 systems from Russia," the experts said.

Elena Guskova, an expert for Balkans, does not share the same point of view.

"It is quite doubtful that the EU and the USA would welcome such a deal. They do not conceal their plans to separate Serbia from Russia as much as possible. Many Serbs believe that their problems have not been solved. Many conflict areas remained in Serbia after the collapse of Yugoslavia. There's every reason to believe that NATO will not be able to defend Serbia in case a serious conflict occurs in the north or in the south of the country. It happened so in Macedonia in 2001. The alliance simply took the side of the Albanians as it happened two years earlier with Kosovo," the expert said.

Sergei Balmasov

Pravda.Ru

http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economics/05-04-2011/117464-russia_serbia-0/

Will the US stop digging its Kosovo hole?

Will the US stop digging its Kosovo hole?

The current talks between Belgrade and Pristina may provide the US with an opportunity to shift away from a policy that has become dependent on one leader and upon giving full backing to all of Pristina's political claims.

By Gerard Gallucci

Since December, news from Kosovo has been increasingly about the involvement of its political leaders in corruption, organ trafficking and organized crime, extending back to acts committed by the KLA during the war. EULEX is currently investigating the alleged involvement of senior officials who are former KLA members. These investigations may be, in part, an effort to make-up for EULEX's failure to pursue allegations in a report, by Swiss Senator Dick Marty, on Prime Minister Thaci's involvement in KLA organ trafficking. EULEX tried to deflect calls for it to investigate Thaci by blaming Marty for not passing on the names of witnesses. But some witnesses are dead and those living seem reluctant to entrust themselves into Kosovo's witness protection scheme. So, EULEX apparently dug through its files and came up with the current investigation. But in the Balkans, it is hard to please everyone and former-KLA have been quite active in criticizing and demonstrating against EULEX.

All this has led some to suggest that perhaps the creation of an Albanian-majority, independent Kosovo was a mistake. Some have charged too that none of the information on corruption and criminal involvement is really new but was previously covered up and ignored for political reasons. This is almost certainly true. Anyone working in the Balkans since the collapse of Yugoslavia will be quite familiar with the near ubiquitous links between political and criminal circles. Of course, traditional brigandage has characterized certain areas of Kosovo since time immemorial. And stories of human rights abuses and criminal activity by KLA figures were common in Kosovo. Some of these may not stand up to the demands for evidence, but the general picture has been known for some time.

It seems certain that someone was protecting the Kosovo leadership from being investigated. Some cite reports that the US pressured UNMIK not to investigate charges into Thaci's leadership. The US may also have played a role in ensuring that former KLA leader and prime minister, Ramush Haradinaj, was pulled in front of the Hague to get him out of Thaci's way. Indeed, the US may have sought to punish a high-ranking UNMIK official for seeking to help Haradinaj as it had helped Thaci.

It is no secret that the US judged Thaci to be key to maintaining control over the Kosovo Albanians. Keeping him as a trusted and cooperative prime minister became in itself an important element of US policy. In return for him keeping the lid on Albanian irredentism and for accepting the form – if not the substance – of the Ahtisaari Plan, Thaci received complete US backing both for him and for Pristina's claim of independence and "territorial integrity" (meaning control of the north). Thus the US followed the path it has often used in backing the likes of the Shah of Iran, Mobutu, Pinochet, Saddam (before 9/11), Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi – swallow any reservations about the behavior of "your man" as long as he remains "your man." Typically, the US was unable to extricate itself from these relationships until it was too late for a happy ending.

This is not to say that Thaci is in the same category as these others. He is not a mass murderer and he continues to operate within the context of a constitutional democracy. The real problem is the stance the US has taken to avoid having to deal with the mess it – and its Quint partners – helped create in Kosovo by picking a favorite, overlooking the problems and digging in to keep things "stable." One result has been the reckless US effort to distract attention from the problems in Pristina by focusing on alleged threats to security and legality from the northern Kosovo Serbs. US policy for Kosovo can be boiled down into two parts: help Thaci, blame Serbs. If this continues to take the form of seeking to bully the north into accepting Pristina, it will lead to further conflict. Unfortunately, it is a trait of many who have dug themselves into a hole to dig further. Somebody should instead help the US get out of its hole. The current discussions between Belgrade and Pristina could be the ladder.

Gerard M. Gallucci is a retired US diplomat and UN peacekeeper. He worked as part of US efforts to resolve the conflicts in Angola, South Africa and Sudan and as Director for Inter-American Affairs at the National Security Council. He served as UN Regional Representative in Mitrovica, Kosovo from July 2005 until October 2008. Gerard is also a member ofTransCconflict's advisory board. The views expressed in this piece are his own and do not represent the position of any organization.

You can read more of Mr. Gallucci's analysis of current developments in Kosovo and elsewhere by clicking here. To read other articles by Gerard for TransConflict, please click here.

http://www.transconflict.com/2011/04/will-the-us-stop-digging-its-kosovo-hole-054/