January 30, 2020

Montenegro's Corrupt Party of Socialists Is Killing the Country

nationalinterest.org

Montenegro's Corrupt Party of Socialists Is Killing the Country

by Gordon N. Bardos

9-12 minutes


Largely unnoticed in the wake of events in the Middle-East and the impeachment drama, another crisis is brewing in the Balkans. In Montenegro, thousands of people have been protesting a new law passed by the Montenegrin parliament and signed into effect by the country's longtime strongman, Milo Djukanovic, which gives the government authority over properties that religious organizations in the country have been using for at least a century. Evidence of the problems the controversial new law creates can be seen in the widespread condemnation it has received from individuals such as Pope Francis, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, and Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kiril.

Djukanovic's motives are fairly transparent. Economically, the new law allows Djukanovic's kleptocracy to take control of hundreds of properties used by the Serbian Orthodox Church while simultaneously politically weakening the only organized institution left in Montenegro capable of posing a serious threat to his rule. (Public opinion polls show that the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro by far enjoys more trust than the country's president, government, parliament or judiciary.)

Ultimately, Djukanovic's plan is to turn over church properties with no economic value to an uncanonical organization under his control, led by a defrocked charlatan fond of hitting old women.

The current protests in Montenegro, however, are only a symptom of a conflict that has been long in the making. Remarkably, NATO's newest member is the only former communist European country that has never had a democratic transition. Even in Belarus and Russia communists have been out of power for at least one electoral cycle. But Djukanovic's ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), which is just the renamed Montenegrin League of Communists, has been in power continuously since 1945.

To put this longevity in some perspective, Djukanovic's DPS has been in power longer than the Bolsheviks ruled the Soviet Union, and Djukanovic himself has been in power longer than Stalin.

Djukanovic has managed to stay in power so long by constantly reinventing himself and changing with the times. In 1991, as a protégé of Slobodan Milosevic, Djukanovic ordered the bombardment of Dubrovnik. Yet today, there are people in Washington who hail Djukanovic as an "elder statesman," and he is feted in Washington's foreign policy salons. In 2014, Joe Biden welcomed him to the White House. 

While enjoying so much popularity in Washington, however, Djukanovic has turned Montenegro into his feudal fiefdom. As a recent New York Times article put it:

[Djukanovic]. . . is now the longest-serving leader in Europe, in power longer than both Vladimir V. Putin in Russia and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey . . . The president's sister is the nation's top lawyer, helping foreign investors join in the building boom sweeping across the coast. His brother owns First Bank, the country's largest financial institution. His son runs the country's biggest power plant. His nephew is involved in the country's largest tourism projects.

Thanks to such machinations, as Moisés Naim has argued, Djukanovic has turned Montenegro into a "mafia state." Thus, according to Naim, leading government officials are actually "integral players in, if not the leaders of, criminal enterprises, and the defense and promotion of those enterprises become official priorities . . . the national interest and the interests of organized crime are now inextricably intertwined." Indeed, one prominent democratic opposition figure in Montenegro has aptly called Djukanovic's system-of-rule "Montenegrin Putinism."

In 2015, Djukanovic's success in turning Montenegro into a mafia state led to his being named "Man of the Year in Organized Crime" by an international anti-corruption watchdog group. As the award announcement noted, "this as a lifetime achievement award." Nobody outside of Putin has run a state that relies so heavily on corruption, organized crime and dirty politics. It is truly and thoroughly rotten to the core.

An audit of the Djukanovic family bank by Price Waterhouse Coopers has revealed one of the many mechanisms by which corruption in Montenegro operated. First, public funds were deposited with First Bank, which then provided loans to Djukanovic associates and well-known organized crime figures, such as Darko Saric, a prominent Balkan drug dealer. Another tactic has been for Djukanovic cronies to acquire state-owned enterprises, fleece them of their value, and then declare them legally insolvent. According to one report, by November 2015, 89 percent of the state-owned enterprises that had been privatized by Djukanovic had reportedly gone bankrupt.

Apart from financial corruption, Djukanovic has used various means of illegal electoral engineering to stay in power. These tactics have run the gamut from voter fraud to blackmail, demobilizing potential opposition voters, fear-mongering, threatening police violence, and outright vote-buying. Anti-corruption watchdogs believe up to 15 percent of the votes in the October 2016 elections were fraudulent.

Lastly, attacks on independent media and critical voices have also been a hallmark of Djukanovic's system of rule. Djukanovic once said that investigative journalists should be "exterminated like mice," and someone in Montenegro clearly got the message. In 2004, the editor of the opposition newsmagazine Dan was assassinated. In August 2013, investigative journalist Tufik Softic was the target of a bombing attack. In December 2013, an explosive device was detonated outside the offices of Vijesti, an independent daily in Podgorica. In October 2015, Jovo Martinovic, a journalist covering Montenegro's organized crime scene, was jailed for fifteen months on trumped-up drug-smuggling charges. In April 2018, a car bomb exploded outside the home of investigative journalist Saed Sadikovic. In May 2018, Olivera Lakic, a journalist reporting on corruption, was shot outside her apartment in Podgorica.

Yet despite this organized terror campaign the country's independent media, Reporters Sans Frontieres would note in December 2018 that  "All of the attacks on journalists in the past two years have gone unpunished."

Apart from outright physical attacks, Djukanovic and his surrogates also resort to various smear campaigns against their opponents. For people who think that Donald Trump's comments about women are beyond the pale, Djukanovic takes things even lower. In 2015, Djukanovic launched an attack against one of Montenegro's leading anti-corruption activists, Vanja Calovic, literally accusing her of having sex with dogs. To its credit, the U.S. Embassy in Podgorica named her "The Most Courageous Woman in Montenegro" in 2016.

As evident from the above, the nature of Djukanovic's rule has ranged from the depraved to the corrupt. At times, however, it has also been farcical. The primary example of this was seen in the events surrounding the so-called "Russian-backed coup plot" in Montenegro in October 2016.  

Indeed, the story of the so-called Russian-backed coup attempt becomes more absurd the more one analyzes it. It is worth noting, for instance, that the alleged coup attempt was at least the third such "attack on the state" that has happened on the eve of elections in Montenegro in recent years. And the absurdities just compound from there.

The alleged organizer of the coup, Sasa Sindjelic, was a high-school drop-out wanted for murder in Croatia who hadn't been to Montenegro in fifteen years. Yet the GRU supposedly tasked such a marginal figure to organize a coup (on three week's notice) against a regime that had been in power for some three decades. Not surprisingly, in March 2019, Sindjelic renounced his testimony altogether, revealing that the story had been coerced out of him after twenty-three days in solitary confinement and numerous beatings.

The other central actor in the alleged plot, Mirko Velimirovic also renounced his story in April 2017, after which he had a serious "car accident" and decided it would be better for his health to testify again. Yet under cross-examination his testimony quickly fell apart; Velimirovic, for instance, could not identify the weapons he had allegedly bought (and which have never been produced), nor could he identify the mysterious Albanian black marketeer he supposedly bought the weapons from.

The other alleged participants in this third-rate Balkan cabaret were similarly farcical; as one report put it, most of those arrested were "elderly and in ill-health." The comedic highpoint of the proceedings came with the testimony of an alleged coup-plotter (in real life a self-confessed drug addict), who was tasked with breaking windows and throwing Molotov cocktails at a political party headquarters—but he got the address wrong. During his confused testimony, the alleged coup-plotter claimed, "Actually, I don't even know what I was supposed to do. The only people I know here work for the government."

Surprisingly, considering the supposedly grave danger facing the country, neither the interior minister, nor the defense minister, nor Montenegro's Council for National Security were informed about such an unprecedented threat. Nor did Montenegrin officials inform NATO that they had discovered a Russian-backed plot against their country. Even Djukanović said that he only found out about the alleged affair from media reports. As Montenegro's interior minister himself noted somewhat incredulously in the days after the discovery of the alleged coup attempt was made public "There has not been a meeting of the government or of the Council for National Security, the state president has said that he does not want to comment, the prime minister said that he does not know anything about it or that he does not have enough information . . . I have to admit that this is a very specific 'coup d'etat'."

 

January 23, 2020

The Illusion of Russian Influence in the Western Balkans

theglobepost.com

The Illusion of Russian Influence in the Western Balkans

Visar Xhambazi

6-7 minutes


In the absence of a clear E.U. integration perspective, Albania, Serbia, and North Macedonia have decided to take matters into their own hands and initiate their version of regional cooperation known as "mini Schengen." Two other Balkan countries, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, have stated their reservations, while Kosovo has rejected the idea altogether.

Kosovo based its refusal to participate primarily on its relationship with Serbia and Belgrade's lack of recognition of Kosovo as an independent state. In addition, Kosovo's Prime Minister, Ramush Haradinaj, said that the "mini Schengen" initiative would pave the way for more Russian influence in the region.

However, amid political statements, the evidence says otherwise. Russia does not have the capability nor the propensity to meddle in the Balkans. While there is an opportunity, the reality is that Moscow has little to offer.

Furthermore, the Western Balkans is surrounded by E.U. and NATO members and is over a thousand miles away from Russia, leaving Moscow without direct access to the region. Finally, Russia's economy is largely based on the energy sector, and in this respect, the country has little to offer to the developing nations of the Balkans.

Unfavorable Geography

Russia relinquished its security mechanisms to NATO when the last peacekeepers left Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2003. Since then, Moscow's regional interests have been focused mainly on preventing the remaining Balkan countries from joining NATO.

To this end, Russia attempted to stage a coup in Montenegro in 2018 and tried to prevent the name agreement between Greece and North Macedonia to jeopardize their chances of joining NATO. Yet so far, Russia's disruption strategy has proved unsuccessful. Montenegro is NATO's newest member, while North Macedonia is expected to join this year.

Consequently, Russia's influence is limited to "near abroad" countries, referring to the independent republics that emerged after the 1991 Soviet Union dissolution. Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea and Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia – countries that traditionally had close ties to Russia – is a strong indicator that Russian foreign policy priorities focus predominantly on neighbors rather than the Balkans.

Limited Soft Power

Russia's inability to project influence in the Balkans further stems from the fact that its persuasion methods are focused on historical symbolism such as Christian Orthodoxy and Pan-Slavism, factors that are losing significance in the Balkan region.

While Russian disinformation remains potent, leaders in the Balkans are cautious and do not seem to trust Moscow's intentions. The country's effectiveness is limited to disinformation and attempting to disrupt E.U. reforms by halting the region's democratic advancement and aspirations to join the E.U. and NATO.

Security Facade

Serbia remains Russia's sole friend in the region and the only country that regularly participates in Russian military drills. Serbia shows enormous support for "big brother" Russia, and it is the only Balkan country that refuses to join sanctions against Moscow for the annexation of Crimea.

However, Serbia's close ties to Russia have not stopped the country from pursuing E.U. membership and quietly cozying up to NATO. While Belgrade constantly professes its determination to never join the alliance, cooperation between Serbia and NATO is on the rise. In 2019, Serbia conducted 17 military exercises with other countries, 13 of which were with NATO members and only four with Russia.

And while Russia handed over five MiG-29 fighter jets to Serbia in 2017, these were second-hand aircraft and to fully operationalize them, Serbia has to spend around 200 million euros.

Lack of Economic Incentives

 Russia's main economic interest lies within the energy sector, but it has started to lose that battle too. In 2007, Russia initiated its most ambitious plan in the region, the South Stream gas pipeline, which was to stretch from the Black Sea into the Balkans. The initiative failed because it was not economically viable.

In terms of trade, Russian exports to each Western Balkan country do not exceed 2 percent, except for Serbia which is around 5 percent.

More recently, China has emerged as a serious actor in the region. It is now among the top five markets for imports in most of the region's countries, while Russia enjoys that status only in Serbia.

Chinese Influence 

In the last few years, the Western Balkans have been witnessing a massive increase in Chinese investments (millions in infrastructure and telecommunications projects), something that Russia cannot offer.

China has been spending money to gain influence rapidly, taking advantage of the poor investment climate by providing loans and consequently ensuring long-term dependency. In this respect, China faces little resistance from the small and developing Balkan states.

Chinese President Xi Jinping. Photo: AFP

Russian influence in the Balkans is exaggerated. Its method of persuasion through religious and ethnic symbolism is outdated and Moscow cannot compete with other actors to provide effective economic and technological advancement in the region.

As Russian influence slowly starts to fade away, Europe and the West should be more concerned with the growing Chinese influence in the Balkans and how this will affect its relationship with the region.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Globe Post.

 

January 22, 2020

27 years since Croatian massacre Maslenica that killed 348 Serbs, destroying their homes

telegraf.rs

27 years since Croatian massacre Maslenica that killed 348 Serbs, destroying their homes

5-6 minutes


22/01/20 |  11:50    11:54

Operation Maslenica was planned and executed by Janko Bobetko, Ante Gotovina, Ante Roso, Mirko Norac and Mladen Markac, with the knowledge and approval of Franjo Tudjman, then president of the republic and commander-in-chief of the Croatian Army

Foto: Profimedia/AFP

On January 22, 1993, the Croatian Army carried out an aggression, codenamed "Maslenica", against the southern parts of the Republic of Serb Krajina (RSK).

The aggression was carried out during the implementation of the Vance Plan, which a year earlier put the RSK under the protection of the UN peacekeeping force (UNPROFOR). It was Croatia's third aggression against an area protected by the UN, an organization that it had joined 2 years earlier.

Over the next few days, the Croatian armed forces managed to occupy several tens of square kilometers in Ravni Kotari, including the Zemunik Airport, several heights on Mt. Velebit, and take control of the Peruca dam and hydroelectric power plant.

Three Serb villages were the most affected by this aggression: Islam Grcki, Kasic and Smokovic, as well as ethnically mixed villages: Murvica, Crno, Zemunik Gornji, Poljica and Islam Latinski. Serbs from the villages mentioned were killed, driven out or taken to prisons and camps, Banija.rs reports.

 

Photo: Guliver/Peter Turnley/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images

Their rich faming households were looted, devastated and destroyed, cultural monuments, cemeteries and churches devastated, desecrated or demolished, among them Dvori Jankovic Stojana in Islam Grcki with a small church dedicated to St. George (Georgije) (consecrated in 1675), in which the famous writer Vladan Desnica was buried, and the church of St. George (consecrated in 1567) in Smokovic and St. Ilija (consecrated 1872) in Kasic.

According to the organization Veritas and its records, 348 Serbs, 55 civilians, with an average age of 60, were killed or went missing in this aggression. The victims include 34 women, with an average age of 57 and three children under 12. Among the victims are 65 volunteers from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina who came to Ravni Kotari to help local Serbs defend their centuries-old homes. Out of the total number of victims so far, the fate of 337 persons has been clarified, while 11 more are kept on the register as missing persons, of which 6 are civilians, including 3 women.

In the next few months, 165 persons more died, mostly the elderly. More than ten thousand Serbs were driven out from the aforementioned villages, to be displaced all over the world.

 

Photo: Guliver/Peter Turnley/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images

One of the gravest crimes, already on the first day of the aggression, happened at the Mali Alan pass on Mt. Velebit, near an UNPROFOR observation post, when members of Croatia's Special Police "Alfa" ambushed, killed and massacred 22 members of the Serb Krajina Army (SVK) from the area of ​​Gracac. This massacre was committed by members of the 5th Alfa squad, commanded by Milijan Brkic aka Vaso, currently deputy leader of the HDZ party and vice-president of the Croatian parliament.

Operation Maslenica was planned and executed by Janko Bobetko, Ante Gotovina, Ante Roso, Mirko Norac and Mladen Markac, with the knowledge and approval of Franjo Tudjman, then president of the republic and commander-in-chief of the Croatian Army who were already or subsequently promoted to the rank of general.

 

Photo: Profimedia/AFP

During this aggression, the Velebit sector artillery chief was a Kosovo Albanian, who until 1991 served in the Yugoslav People's Army (JNA): Agim Ceku. (Ssince 1999 he served as KLA commander and then of Kosovo Security Force, and was also prime minister and minister of security forces). Ceku's mortars, due to indiscriminate shelling of Benkovac and Obrovac municipalities, killed the most civilians.

Although the aggression was carried out against a UN protected zone and before the eyes of many UNPROFOR members, nobody has been prosecuted for crimes against Serbs committed in this operation either in international or in domestic courts, writes Banija.rs.

Video: How Operation Storm changed Knin?

(Telegraf.rs/Banija.rs)