| Serbia and its New Constitution: On the Brink of a New Era? | ||||||||||||
| Can Karpat, AIA Balkan Section | ||||||||||||
| Since the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000, Serbia has been supposed to adopt a new Constitution. Finally, after endless delays and hesitations, Serbia adopted its first post-communist Constitution last weekend. Within weeks, the exact date of the early elections will be fixed. And President Boris Tadic insists that the presidential elections be held before the end of this year as well. Serbia is definitely on the brink of a new era. Will this era also bring luck to Serbia and the rest of the Balkans… Since the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000, Serbia has been supposed to adopt a new Constitution. Finally, after endless delays and hesitations, Serbia adopted its first post-communist Constitution last weekend.
Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica stated with proud that "there is no country which checked the mood of its public in the way Serbia has done with the new Constitution - first with the voting in Parliament, and then with its confirmation at the referendum with a majority vote". This is nothing but Premier's wishful thinking. Of course, superficially, it seems as though the Constitution had been adopted with two levels of voting, one by Parliament, the other by the people - thus with genuine gravity. Yet, much criticised and with right was the way the Constitution prepared: in a great rush so that Zoran Ostojic from the liberal Civic Alliance of Serbia (GSS) calls it "49-hour Constitution" and without the participation of the public nor the minorities. And of course, no surprise that Prime Minister declared "victory". Although in a deliciously diplomatic way he called it "victory of Serbia", he must have hinted at his government's victory as well. However, statistics do not lie. It is obvious that with such figures ( 53.66 and 51.46 percent), the adoption of the Constitution is far from being a victory. Rather, it indicates the weariness of the Serbs from politics - or even their indifference towards it. If we must see the empty side of the glass … Almost one Serb over two rejected the Constitution supported by the four major political parties. This fact is crystal clear. The intriguing question is: Did they also reject the preamble on which the government counted all its success? During the pre-referendum campaigns, which, without surprise, turned into a sort of pre-elections campaigns too, the "Kosovo preamble" was the focus of all arguments. In order to stimulate the people, Pink TV broadcasted films on the Battle of Kosovo. It is extremely regrettable that this Serbian television found nothing but a battle coming from as early as 1389 in order to justify Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo. Did the channel insinuate that the international community of modern times is in fact a reflection of the Ottomans of Kosovo Polje? Complete mystery indeed. Thus, it must be of an extreme relief for the outside world that ordinary Serbs did not let themselves be influenced by such suspect arguments. And thus, the poll according to which 60 percent of the Serbs would "tolerate" the secession of Kosovo was confirmed. For ordinary Serbs, there are more serious and urgent economic and social problems than the Kosovo question. In a way, there was no surprise at this referendum. More than 90 percent of the Kosovo Serbs voted for the Constitution. Albanians of the Presevo Valley boycotted the referendum as a sign of solidarity with their brethren from Kosovo. And only 42 percent of the inhabitants of Vojvodina approved of the new Constitution. It seems that finally Serbia alienated all of its Albanian inhabitants. Since the focus was the notorious Kosovo preamble, this was the price to pay indeed. As for Vojvodina, it seems that the people sided with the President of the Assembly Bojan Kostres who called the citizens to boycott the referendum, rather than with Prime Minister Bojan Pajtic who supported the new Constitution. Pajtic was even enthusiastic about the draft: "We even got what we didn't state in the platform, for example that Vojvodina has its symbols, and the Constitution stipulates those symbols". With this Constitution, Vojvodina is granted financial autonomy. However, we live in the "era of minorities" so that minorities are even on the brink of demanding more rights than majorities - with the blessing of the EU. And finally the Serbs of Kosovo. It is no surprise that the preamble just hypnotised them. What is worrying is the way that they celebrated their -though statistically scarce as we have seen- "victory" in the divided town of Mitrovica (northern Kosovo), hailing Ratko Mladic among others. Unless being a disagreeable Cassandra, this was far from being a good sign for the future when Kosovo will obtain some kind of independence.
Of course the new Constitution has its good points. According to Zoran Ivosevic, a former judge of the Supreme Court of Serbia, "the areas of economy, public financing and property rights, and organisation of power -especially the judiciary- were done very carefully". However, the Kosovo preamble and the first article which declares that "Serbia is the homeland of the Serbs" either alienated some (Albanians and other minorities) or toughened others (Kosovo Serbs). Yet, one must admit that to criticise is an easy and comfortable job. Every analyst criticise à fond Serbia's deeds and advise her not to do what she does, though no one really tell her what she should do instead. En résumé, Vojislav Kostunica has not much reason to rejoice. The Constitution has been adopted with a very scarce majority. His government is always a precarious minority government. Within weeks, the exact date of the early elections will be fixed. And President Boris Tadic insists that the presidential elections be held before the end of this year as well. Therefore, Serbia is definitely on the brink of a new era. However, whether this era will also bring luck to Serbia and the rest of the Balkans is yet to be seen in coming months. http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1113 Related items: Serbia Holds Referendum - on Constitution or on the Preamble? (24.10.2006) Serbia: The Bee Hive of the Balkans (08.10.2006) Serbia or Swan that Refuses to Sing its Final Song in Kosovo (17.09.2006) Balkans under the Threat of a Fragmentation Bomb Called Kosovo (03.08.2006) Serbia: Between the Empire of Heaven and the Empire of the Earth Again (23.07.2006) From the Wisdom of Suffocating Serbia (22.06.2006) Kosovo: Riddle whose Answer everyone knows (06.06.2006) |
The US has sent a special envoy to Kosovo and Serbia to press both sides to keep the peace as the international community prepares to decide the status of the United Nations-run province.
Diplomats and politicians on all sides expect a messy and inconclusive outcome, and fear further ethnic violence in Kosovo with peacekeepers from Nato caught in the middle.
Few believe that Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president acting as UN mediator, can broker a compromise. This weekend Serbian voters are likely to approve by referendum a new constitution reaffirming Kosovo as part of Serbia, while the province’s ethnic Albanian majority overwhelmingly aspires to, and expects, full independence.
The fate of Kosovo – run by the UN and protected by Nato since the 1999 air campaign stopped ethnic cleansing by Serbia – is also hostage to the deteriorating state of relations between the US and Russia. These are complicated by rising tensions in the southern Caucasus and competing interests over Iran and energy resources.
As Russia reasserts itself on the world stage, the US and Europe are wondering what price President Vladimir Putin will exact at the UN Security Council in exchange for consenting to Kosovo’s independence, or whether he will simply block the process completely.
Mr Putin warns that independence for Kosovo would set a precedent for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian-backed, separatist enclaves in Georgia. The US insists Kosovo is a “unique” case, thereby also seeking to assuage Chinese concerns over Taiwan and Tibet.
Diplomats expect Mr Ahtisaari will recommend a form of “managed” or “conditional” independence that falls short of full sovereignty, keeping Kosovo under international protection and guidance, possibly for three years.
Should Russia deprive Kosovo of the UN’s blessing for a path to independence, then the Kosovo Albanian government under Agim Ceku, prime minister, may be encouraged by the US to consider making a unilateral declaration of independence.
This heightens the risk that the Serb minority in Kosovo, mostly concentrated in Nato-protected enclaves, would follow suit and declare their own independence or allegiance to Belgrade.
Frank Wisner, the special US envoy, is expected to urge Belgrade to prevent any such breakaway move. Diplomats say his mission is to tell Kosovo and Serbia that they must accept Mr Ahtisaari’s “compromise imposed solution”.
Dimitri Simes, head of the Nixon Center think-tank which has close contact with Moscow, says Russia’s position on Kosovo is hardening but it may not have decided how it will vote at the UN.
“That depends on the overall status of the US-Russia relationship, the results of World Trade Organisation negotiations and the forthcoming meetings in November between Presidents Bush and Putin, first in Moscow and then in Hanoi,” he said.
But he warned that it might be difficult for Mr Putin to back down over Kosovo.
“The Russian leadership, including President Putin personally, is making it increasingly clear to the Bush administration that Georgia is becoming a defining issue in the US-Russia relationship the way Iran and North Korea are on the American side.”
Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation security think-tank, said Mr Putin had “let the genie out of the bottle with nationalism” and warned of the dangers posed by a Russia seeking to regain its Soviet-era domination of the Caucasus and its strategic oil and gas pipelines.
Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, kept making concessions only for Russia to keep “upping the ante”, Mr Howard said.
It was possible the Bush administration would seek to delay Kosovo’s bid for independence and Georgia’s bid for Nato membership to keep Russia on board over Iran and North Korea, he added.
Speaking of the deadlock facing Mr Ahtisaari, one Kosovo Albanian politician commented: “We are waiting for the real talks to begin – between the US and Russia.”
