Milosevic death adds new "unknown" in EU equation

 

Milosevic death adds new "unknown" in EU equation
Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:21 AM ET

By Mark John

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The death of former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic adds a potentially dangerous new "unknown" into the European Union's complex ties with membership hopeful Serbia, analysts said on Monday.

EU officials are quietly relieved that the death of the war crimes indictee in a United Nations tribunal cell has not so far stirred up a wave of nationalist sentiment in Serbia that could turn popular opinion against the bloc.

But they recognize it could complicate efforts to get other indictees such as Bosnian Serb general Ratko Mladic to the Hague tribunal, and could harm efforts to convince Serbs that the EU seriously sees a future for them within the bloc.

"We are all hoping that this shows Serbia has moved on. But it is a bit of a dangerous situation given all the other factors," said Gergana Noutcheva at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels.

Noutcheva said Milosevic's death was a complicating factor at a time of high pressure for Belgrade, embroiled in talks on the status of the Kosovo province and facing a referendum in its state union partner Montenegro on possible independence.

Apart from a weekend vigil by 100 diehard and mostly elderly supporters at the Socialist Party office, there has been little outpouring of emotion for Milosevic, who led Serbia into war, poverty and international pariah status.

"The reaction has been mixed. We suspect it could be closed quite quickly. It could even be cathartic," said one EU official, saying Brussels hoped it would enable Serbs to turn the page more quickly on the Bosnian wars of the 1990s.

"We must hope Milosevic will be quietly forgotten," echoed Croatia's pro-EU daily Jutarnji List, fearing that Milosevic's death might stir up unwelcome memories in the region.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO

EU foreign ministers meeting in the Austrian city of Salzburg on Saturday insisted Milosevic's death did not alter their demand that Belgrade arrest and hand over Mladic by the end of this month or risk derailing talks on closer EU ties.

Many said Milosevic's death before the end of his trial had cheated the families of Bosnian war victims of the satisfaction of seeing justice done, making it more urgent to bring Mladic and wartime Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic to trial.

But some EU officials acknowledged that Milosevic's prison death could make Mladic -- believed to be enjoying protection from loyalists in the security services -- more reluctant to hand himself in to the very same tribunal.

News of Milosevic's death upstaged what the EU intended as a message of reassurance from Salzburg, confirming that EU entry was the "ultimate goal" for the states of the former Yugoslavia.

Noutcheva said the worst-case scenario would be nationalist politicians using Milosevic's death to drum up sentiment against the West and the EU.

While Mladic's transfer to the Hague remains vital for any progress on Serbia's ties with the EU, analysts say it is time for the bloc to give more encouragement.

"If this really is the decisive year for the Balkans, the carrots offered by the EU are extremely thin," said Aleksandar Mitic, an analyst on south-east Europe and the EU.

Mitic, who also works for Serbian state news agency Tanjug, said the Salzburg statement would disappoint many in Serbia with its insistence on the EU's ability to absorb future members as a proviso to further enlargement.

The European Stability Initiative think-tank agreed. "This (Salzburg meeting) was an opportunity to reassure the region that its European prospects are not slipping into the distant future. This opportunity was missed," it said in a report.

Financial help and promises to make it easier for Serbs to obtain visas to travel to the EU had had little impact on public opinion so far, Mitic added.

Noutcheva also said it was time for the EU to reach out to Serbs more, suggesting it was vital that preliminary talks on a so-called "stabilization and accession agreement" -- a key rung on the ladder to entry -- were concluded this year.

"That would be a big boost (for the pro-EU camp in Serbia) and it could be done," she said.

-- by Mark John, Reuters

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