Kosovo: The Fuse on the Balkan Powder Keg

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Stratfor

Kosovo:
The Fuse on the Balkan Powder Keg

November 16, 2007 21 55 GMT

Summary

Kosovo's expected Dec. 10 declaration of independence from Serbia is already
inspiring minor violent incidents throughout the Balkans. If tensions erupt
over the issue, the fighting is almost certain to spread beyond Kosovo and
Serbia.



Analysis



Kosovo is set to hold parliamentary and local elections Nov. 17 amid tensions
surrounding talks on the region's status and the boycott of the elections
called by the Serbs. Leading up to Kosovo's expected Dec. 10 declaration of
independence from Serbia, small sparks of violence are surfacing not only in Kosovo
and Serbia, but also in other Balkan states -- illustrating that if this powder
keg blows, the explosion will not be limited to Kosovo and Serbia.



Though the international community is completely
split on the issue of Kosovar independence -- and has been since the
region's 1999 provisional break from Serbia -- the small secessionist
government has said it will not wait any longer. Serbs consider Kosovo the
birthplace of their national identity and view Kosovar Albanians as little more
than a recent infestation, though the province's population is now more than 90
percent Albanian and less than 5 percent Serbian. The Kosovars want nothing
less than independence, and the Serbs want to give them anything but.

Kosovo had expected the West
to continue supporting what it called the inevitability
of Kosovar independence. However, that inevitability is now lost in the shuffle
of a larger
political battle between global power players such as Russia, the European
Union and the United States, and Serbia and Kosovo are left with only
uncertainty.

All sides fear this uncertainty
will turn volatile -- and possibly bloody. If an explosion of violence does
occur, it will not be contained within Serbia and Kosovo's borders; it could
destabilize the entire Balkan region. Minor incidents of violence and
instability have already
been seen in Montenegro, Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.



Serbia and Kosovo



Serbia and Kosovo seem to have avoided violence on the scale of that seen in
the late 1990s, mainly because the Radicals did not come to power during Serbian
elections and because Kosovar independence was continually put on the back
burner this year. This does not mean, however, that such violence can be
avoided altogether, especially as each side gets more fed up with the
situation. Small-scale violence has been seen and is not unexpected. Tensions
are high between Kosovars and Serbs and within each ethnic faction as well.



The Serbs within Kosovo do not make up enough of the population to attempt any
meaningful military operations, but there are other threats. The most obvious
-- but not the most likely -- is that Serbia could do what it did in 1999 when
it wanted to reassert full control over Kosovo: send in the army. But the
military is not in the shape it was in then. Moreover, the Serbs within Serbia
proper are too fractured; some are willing to forgo Kosovo to gain EU
membership, while others are willing to fight to the end for the small
province. That is enough to cause trouble, since only a few radicals are needed
to form paramilitary groups like those seen during the war.



There are also small Serbian terrorist groups that have been operating
periodically in Serbia and Kosovo. The best known is Tsar Lazar's Guard, which
was a joke when it first formed but has been gaining support -- and reportedly
weapons -- as Dec. 10 approaches. Serbs are not the only group reported to have
militants working for their cause; the Albanian National Army militant group
reportedly has been recruiting new members and equipment recently.



Kosovar Albanians also have been stirring unrest inside the recently
independent Montenegro. The small Albanian population in Montenegro on the
Kosovar border has already been stirred up, however; a handful of Albanians
were arrested in Ulcinj, Montenegro, and Kosovar Albanians began flooding over
the border and stormed the police station in protest.



Montenegro understands what it is like to push for independence from Serbia,
but unlike Kosovo the country is still
very divided over whether it is content with its new independence.
Approximately 40 percent still consider themselves ethnically Serbian --
especially since they share the same church and same language -- and are thus
loyal to Belgrade. Some Montenegrin Serbians have already pledged to help fight
if Kosovo gets its independence.



Macedonia



The militants in Kosovo have also been linked to Albanians crossing the border
from Macedonia. Albanians are the ethnic minority within Macedonia but hold the
majority of the northwestern part of the country. The Macedonian-Kosovar border
is mountainous and incredibly porous, leading to large border crossings that the
already weak Macedonian military cannot prevent. These Albanians and Kosovar
Albanians have been seen actively engaging in violence on both sides of the
border, proving that the wounds from the 2001 Macedonia conflict -- in which
the Albanians within the country began attacking Macedonian forces -- are still
fresh.



Internally, Macedonia has been politically unstable because of the main
Albanian party actively pushing against the government as it keeps its eyes on
Kosovo. Macedonia is trying to keep a lid on any large-scale violence because
of its aspirations to join the EU, but hostilities have broken out within
Macedonia's borders. On Nov. 7, Macedonian police killed four Albanians in an
operation called Mountain Storm on Mount Sar Planina. Macedonian police said
the Albanians were planning a major terrorist act that would destabilize both
Kosovo and Macedonia.



Bosnia-Herzegovina



Bosnia-Herzegovina
could be a flashpoint in the struggle over Kosovo. Bosnia-Herzegovina is split
between two autonomous regions -- the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and
Republika Srpska (the Serb Republic) -- and three ethnic groups: Muslim
Bosniaks, Catholic Croats and Orthodox Serbs. In short, the country does not
have a comfortable ethnic, social, historic or political mixture. The U.N.
administrative presence is the only thing keeping relative peace and general
unity in the country.



However, control is being transferred from the United Nations to the European
Union -- something many radical Serbs within the country are not happy with
because it means the loss of Russia's voice in Bosnia's future (Russia is on
the U.N. Security Council and supports the Orthodox Serbs). The Muslims within the
country do not want EU supervision, claiming the Union is not friendly to
Muslims. Republika Srpska has criticized the transfer, since they pledge their
loyalty to their brother Serbs next door and to their more numerous Orthodox
brothers in Russia.



The Muslim Bosniaks and Serbs -- with the Croats in flux -- are keeping the
country from moving toward any political unity or a real constitution. But with
Kosovo in play, the Serbs from Republika Srpska are threatening to declare
their own independence. It is no secret that the majority of Serbs within
Republika Srpska want Serbia proper to annex their region, though many Serbs in
Serbia proper look upon them as radicals or country bumpkins. Serbs in
Republika Srpska could become very problematic if they either split from
Bosnia-Herzegovina or decide to flood across the border to fight with their
fellow Serbs. NATO -- which commands the European forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina
-- is rumored to have a contingency plan to sweep into Republika Srpska if
either of these events happens, taking the government buildings and media
outlets and blocking the main roads into Serbia.



The Threat of Greater -- and Spreading -- Violence



Contagion effects of Balkan violence are well known; they were seen both in the
early 20th century and in the 1990s, and the recent outbursts are following the
same pattern. Since EU and NATO forces are present, there have been no large
wars declared by the states themselves. But if the region does ignite, Western
forces could face many problems. First, those forces are a mere shadow of what
they were during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s -- during which it took four
years to get the region generally under control. European and U.S. forces are
deployed only in the non-Serbian section of Bosnia-Herzegovina and within
Kosovo, not throughout the region. Furthermore, NATO and the United States are
bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq and trying to juggle threats larger than
the Balkans -- namely Iran and Russia.



To put it plainly, the West is not paying much attention to the Balkans other
than as a bargaining chip with other global players such as Russia. But with or
without the world watching, the actors in the Balkans are ready to move.

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