http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=1800
INTERNATIONAL ANALYST NETWORK
The global game that is Kosovo & Metohija
Ioannis Michaletos
03 Mar 2008
The latest developments on the 17th of February proved once more that the
world political environment passes yet another milestone, albeit going
backwards towards the era of Empires and feudalism, rather than progressing
into an era of peace and security.
Europe in particular fought tens of bitter wars and conflicts in order to
become the harbor of stability in Eurasia. Starting from the Treaty of
Augsburg in 1555 (cuius regio cius religio) and the Treaty of Westphalia in
1648, Europe managed finally in 1945 through the signing of the UN Chapter
and the Helsinki Final Act in 1975; to confirm the sovereignty of the nation
state and the absolute denial for border changes. As it can well be
understood this no longer holds, and the International Law becomes a peace
of paper on which anyone can interpret what he wishes for, leading the world
closer to another war that will ultimately lead to the destruction of the
human life as we know it.
The reasons for such a dramatic decision of historical proportions, is not
really known, even though the most logical assumption seems to be around the
USA-Russian rivalry. Moreover the sentimental approach of many aspects of
the international relations by certain members of the State Dept. elite
might have played its role. It would not be improbable to predict that the
humankind's historical path correlates with the pessimistic approach by the
great German philosopher and historian Oswald Spengler. In his famous work
"The decline of the West", published in 1918 he outlines his version of the
future that has an outstanding value judging by the present situation. The
prediction towards a feudal conflict-driven world community of the 21st
century is a revealing one, along with the end of the West as a moral and
cultural authority. By year 2100 the planet will resemble more of the Mad
Max film, rather than a highly advanced technological global village. In
that sense 2008 might well be a standing point on which we might look back
in time to know when everything "Officially" started.
The current government of the still-illegally declared independent Kosovo is
heavily influenced by the organized crime groups, maintained links with the
global Jihadi movement and strives to administer a small land which is
actually controlled by the UN, NATO, EU and the individual interests lead by
the strongest countries. On top of that, a high level of poverty coupled
with unemployment and a high birth rate, provides a wider angle of what will
probably happen in Pristina in a few years from now.
The secessionist movements all over the planet are not going to accept the
suis generic approach that has been hasty declared by the Washington
officials. International politics are not a fixed term bank bond, but a
fluid contradictory reality that interprets each event according to the
interests of its own members. Since International Law and its basis the
sovereignty of the nation state no longer exists, everything is possible in
the short & long-term.
For instance Turkey, a government that rushed to recognize the illegal
government in Pristina, is also staging a wide range anti-guerilla attack in
its South-Eastern borders against the Kurdish PKK fighters. Apart from the
already well-known phrase "Double Standards", the antitheses of supporting a
notion that can ultimately destroy ones country seems to have escaped from
the mindset of Ankara's military-diplomatic apparatus. In order to gain
short-term negligible political gains, they have mined their own nation
state; since none knows quite exactly what the future holds and how might
global interests in the energy field behave in just a few years from know.
The Kurdish movement strikes a similarity with the Albanian one. Mountaineer
nations both, having minorities in neighboring states, supporting their
actions through a series of contraband activities and becoming often a
strategic tool of grand powers, when meddling in two of the most important
hubs of Eurasia: Balkans & the Middle East.
Cyprus on the other hand, the small sun-soaked island in the midst of the
Eastern Mediterranean, forms its strategy based in principles and norms,
thus saving its face and interests. The division of the island is not quite
the same problem with Kosovo, since it was actually invaded by Turkey; even
though Nicosia behaves in an ideal European way, shaming European capitals
that have become the former only in name.
The issue of "Greater-great Albania" has been thoroughly discussed in
Serbianna, and the predictions made in the past seem to become more of a
mundane reality. Albania as a nation state is weak due to economic & social
problems along with the existence of stronger neighbors all around it. What
is worrying for the future security of the region is the temptation by
inexperienced diplomats residing almost exclusively in the USA, to use the
Albanian minorities as a Trojan horse so as to confront either Russian
influence or interrupt any European (German-French) plans to acquire
stronger economic and political clout in the region. For the time being the
present Bush Administration seems to lack such strategy, assuming rightly
that the main interests of the country are based in the Middle East and the
South East Asia. The next American President whoever (s)he may be, he is
going to be more influenced by the existence of a well-formed Washington
lobby that will push for further American involvement in the Balkans through
the use of Albanian minorities. In such an unfortunate case, the coming
bloodshed in the Balkans will make the Bosnia war look like a skirmish
between street rioters.
The Russian advance in Europe through the Balkans is a probable indicator of
the anxiety that gripped Washington. In a summary the most important points
of Moscow's interest in the region (Or rather the wider Southeastern
European one) is as follows:
In Bulgaria the Russians (AtomstroyExport Company) managed to sign the deals
with the South Stream and the B-A pipelines. Moreover they agreed to
construct a new thermonuclear station in Belene and the country is heavily
depended on Russian energy in general.
In Hungary has acquired many stocks in gas companies and invests substantial
amounts in the real estate.
Montenegro is awash with Russian capital in the estate and tourist sector
Serbia sold its national energy company and participates in the South Stream
project (Northern Axis). The country is also leaning to Moscow due to the
developments in Kosovo as well.
In Slovakia the gas distribution network company SPP (One of the largest in
Europe), belongs to Gazprom (49%)
In Austria Gazprom recently 50% share of a similar distribution network,
thus creating a natural gas web across Central Europe. Note that 35% of the
largest German one belongs to Russian company and the 10% of the EADS
Corporation.
Greece participates in the B-A & South Stream pipelines and made substantial
procurements of Russian weaponry over the past few years. Cyprus is also one
of the prime destinations of Russian investments.
Turkey imports 75% of its natural gas from Gazprom and receives 10% of its
tourists from CIS countries. Large Turkish construction companies invest
heavily in Russia also.
The above is just a small outline of the recent Russian initiatives or
footholds in the market. Probably that is one of the main reasons of the
American response for supporting a hasty Kosovo recognition, even though in
a globalized world it is difficult to pursue political aims without taking
into consideration the economic aspect of it. In a few words, Russia can
easily retaliate in other fronts using its method of linking events, as it
was reported in a recent Stratfor report. Moreover the ability of Moscow to
influence the oil & gas production might have significant negativities
towards Europe and USA apart from other lesser obvious culminations in the
murky world of secret operations and provocations.
In short this is a conflict that no reasonable and good willing individual
or country would like to happen. Kosovo becomes a focal symbolic emblem of a
new age, even though it could well become a bargaining point on which the
major powers would agree on principles and format strategies towards the
issues that inflict the world, starting from the environment to terrorism,
poverty, and the quest for a better future of the humans in and out of this
planet.
The future will certainly tell which direction the Balkans will follow, and
the present day culminations are pessimist enough to leave any space for a
carefree analysis of the events. A trend to watch is for certain the
decadence of the moral respect towards international bodies and the rise of
extremist groups of all kinds in the Balkans. The latest is surely an issue
regularly pointed out and for certain it will remain so, unless a political
miracle equivalent to the Biblical manna solves these problems in the future
and provides progress, peace and security for the traumatized Balkan
Peninsula.
INTERNATIONAL ANALYST NETWORK
The global game that is Kosovo & Metohija
Ioannis Michaletos
03 Mar 2008
The latest developments on the 17th of February proved once more that the
world political environment passes yet another milestone, albeit going
backwards towards the era of Empires and feudalism, rather than progressing
into an era of peace and security.
Europe in particular fought tens of bitter wars and conflicts in order to
become the harbor of stability in Eurasia. Starting from the Treaty of
Augsburg in 1555 (cuius regio cius religio) and the Treaty of Westphalia in
1648, Europe managed finally in 1945 through the signing of the UN Chapter
and the Helsinki Final Act in 1975; to confirm the sovereignty of the nation
state and the absolute denial for border changes. As it can well be
understood this no longer holds, and the International Law becomes a peace
of paper on which anyone can interpret what he wishes for, leading the world
closer to another war that will ultimately lead to the destruction of the
human life as we know it.
The reasons for such a dramatic decision of historical proportions, is not
really known, even though the most logical assumption seems to be around the
USA-Russian rivalry. Moreover the sentimental approach of many aspects of
the international relations by certain members of the State Dept. elite
might have played its role. It would not be improbable to predict that the
humankind's historical path correlates with the pessimistic approach by the
great German philosopher and historian Oswald Spengler. In his famous work
"The decline of the West", published in 1918 he outlines his version of the
future that has an outstanding value judging by the present situation. The
prediction towards a feudal conflict-driven world community of the 21st
century is a revealing one, along with the end of the West as a moral and
cultural authority. By year 2100 the planet will resemble more of the Mad
Max film, rather than a highly advanced technological global village. In
that sense 2008 might well be a standing point on which we might look back
in time to know when everything "Officially" started.
The current government of the still-illegally declared independent Kosovo is
heavily influenced by the organized crime groups, maintained links with the
global Jihadi movement and strives to administer a small land which is
actually controlled by the UN, NATO, EU and the individual interests lead by
the strongest countries. On top of that, a high level of poverty coupled
with unemployment and a high birth rate, provides a wider angle of what will
probably happen in Pristina in a few years from now.
The secessionist movements all over the planet are not going to accept the
suis generic approach that has been hasty declared by the Washington
officials. International politics are not a fixed term bank bond, but a
fluid contradictory reality that interprets each event according to the
interests of its own members. Since International Law and its basis the
sovereignty of the nation state no longer exists, everything is possible in
the short & long-term.
For instance Turkey, a government that rushed to recognize the illegal
government in Pristina, is also staging a wide range anti-guerilla attack in
its South-Eastern borders against the Kurdish PKK fighters. Apart from the
already well-known phrase "Double Standards", the antitheses of supporting a
notion that can ultimately destroy ones country seems to have escaped from
the mindset of Ankara's military-diplomatic apparatus. In order to gain
short-term negligible political gains, they have mined their own nation
state; since none knows quite exactly what the future holds and how might
global interests in the energy field behave in just a few years from know.
The Kurdish movement strikes a similarity with the Albanian one. Mountaineer
nations both, having minorities in neighboring states, supporting their
actions through a series of contraband activities and becoming often a
strategic tool of grand powers, when meddling in two of the most important
hubs of Eurasia: Balkans & the Middle East.
Cyprus on the other hand, the small sun-soaked island in the midst of the
Eastern Mediterranean, forms its strategy based in principles and norms,
thus saving its face and interests. The division of the island is not quite
the same problem with Kosovo, since it was actually invaded by Turkey; even
though Nicosia behaves in an ideal European way, shaming European capitals
that have become the former only in name.
The issue of "Greater-great Albania" has been thoroughly discussed in
Serbianna, and the predictions made in the past seem to become more of a
mundane reality. Albania as a nation state is weak due to economic & social
problems along with the existence of stronger neighbors all around it. What
is worrying for the future security of the region is the temptation by
inexperienced diplomats residing almost exclusively in the USA, to use the
Albanian minorities as a Trojan horse so as to confront either Russian
influence or interrupt any European (German-French) plans to acquire
stronger economic and political clout in the region. For the time being the
present Bush Administration seems to lack such strategy, assuming rightly
that the main interests of the country are based in the Middle East and the
South East Asia. The next American President whoever (s)he may be, he is
going to be more influenced by the existence of a well-formed Washington
lobby that will push for further American involvement in the Balkans through
the use of Albanian minorities. In such an unfortunate case, the coming
bloodshed in the Balkans will make the Bosnia war look like a skirmish
between street rioters.
The Russian advance in Europe through the Balkans is a probable indicator of
the anxiety that gripped Washington. In a summary the most important points
of Moscow's interest in the region (Or rather the wider Southeastern
European one) is as follows:
In Bulgaria the Russians (AtomstroyExport Company) managed to sign the deals
with the South Stream and the B-A pipelines. Moreover they agreed to
construct a new thermonuclear station in Belene and the country is heavily
depended on Russian energy in general.
In Hungary has acquired many stocks in gas companies and invests substantial
amounts in the real estate.
Montenegro is awash with Russian capital in the estate and tourist sector
Serbia sold its national energy company and participates in the South Stream
project (Northern Axis). The country is also leaning to Moscow due to the
developments in Kosovo as well.
In Slovakia the gas distribution network company SPP (One of the largest in
Europe), belongs to Gazprom (49%)
In Austria Gazprom recently 50% share of a similar distribution network,
thus creating a natural gas web across Central Europe. Note that 35% of the
largest German one belongs to Russian company and the 10% of the EADS
Corporation.
Greece participates in the B-A & South Stream pipelines and made substantial
procurements of Russian weaponry over the past few years. Cyprus is also one
of the prime destinations of Russian investments.
Turkey imports 75% of its natural gas from Gazprom and receives 10% of its
tourists from CIS countries. Large Turkish construction companies invest
heavily in Russia also.
The above is just a small outline of the recent Russian initiatives or
footholds in the market. Probably that is one of the main reasons of the
American response for supporting a hasty Kosovo recognition, even though in
a globalized world it is difficult to pursue political aims without taking
into consideration the economic aspect of it. In a few words, Russia can
easily retaliate in other fronts using its method of linking events, as it
was reported in a recent Stratfor report. Moreover the ability of Moscow to
influence the oil & gas production might have significant negativities
towards Europe and USA apart from other lesser obvious culminations in the
murky world of secret operations and provocations.
In short this is a conflict that no reasonable and good willing individual
or country would like to happen. Kosovo becomes a focal symbolic emblem of a
new age, even though it could well become a bargaining point on which the
major powers would agree on principles and format strategies towards the
issues that inflict the world, starting from the environment to terrorism,
poverty, and the quest for a better future of the humans in and out of this
planet.
The future will certainly tell which direction the Balkans will follow, and
the present day culminations are pessimist enough to leave any space for a
carefree analysis of the events. A trend to watch is for certain the
decadence of the moral respect towards international bodies and the rise of
extremist groups of all kinds in the Balkans. The latest is surely an issue
regularly pointed out and for certain it will remain so, unless a political
miracle equivalent to the Biblical manna solves these problems in the future
and provides progress, peace and security for the traumatized Balkan
Peninsula.
No comments:
Post a Comment