EU states to put Serbia's membership bid on temporary hold

ZELJKO PANTELIC

Today @ 08:27 CET

Serbia's bid to become official candidate for accession to the European Union is likely to be delayed until autumn due to the Balkan country's intransigent position on Kosovo's status, WAZ.EUobserver has learned from well-informed diplomatic sources in Brussels.

Member states have indicated they may again postpone processing Serbia's membership application, which Belgrade hopes to see happening in June. The reason is Serbia's intention to raise the question of Kosovo's status at the United Nations. Belgrade is waiting for the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the former Serbian province's declaration of independence, and has threatened to take it to the UN General Assembly.

EU member states are unhappy with Serbia's refusal to swallow the loss of Kosovo and have hinted this may be another roadblock in Belgrade's EU membership negotiations.

Serbia's progress towards candidate status has been blocked in the past due to its fluctuating cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY), and most notably due to the failure to arrest Ratko Mladic, a former Yugoslav general who is wanted by the ICTY for war crimes.

Paradoxically, now Mladic appears to be the only joker in Belgrade's hand - arresting the elusive fugitive would soften some EU capitals' opposition to moving ahead with Belgrade's membership bid.

"If Serbia arrests Ratko Mladic, it would be impossible even for the most enlargement-sceptic states in the EU to block Serbia's next step towards candidate status - even if the country brings the Kosovo issue back to the UN," a senior diplomat from an EU state told WAZ.EUobserver.

Belgrade hopes that EU foreign ministers at their meeting in June will start the procedure of granting Serbia candidate status, following the country's application for EU membership last December. The gathering, formally known as the "General Affairs Council", can ask the European Commission to prepare an opinion ('avis') on the issue, which would be the first formal step to Serbia obtaining candidate status.

Member states are unlikely officially ask demand Belgrade to drop its claims on Kosovo. But diplomatic sources are unanimous that EU countries have sufficient instruments to delay the start of negotiations until Belgrade bends to their demands.

"Nobody should be surprised if the Serbian application for EU membership remains in the box until the last months of the year, especially if Ratko Mladic is still at large," an EU insider told WAZ.EUobserver.

The EU appears increasingly likely to put Serbia's application on hold until it sees Belgrade's reaction to the ICJ opinion on Kosovo's independence. Two EU member states, which are also members of the influential six-nation Balkans "Contact Group" (US, Russia, Britain, Italy, France, Germany), have indicated silent support for the hard-line position of the Netherlands: that membership application should not be discussed by the Council until the Stabilisation and Association Agreement between Serbia and the EU is ratified.

"If Mladic remains at large, it would be impossible for the Council of Ministers to decide before October and to ask the Commission to start accession talks," an EU diplomat said. "October would be good timing for the most important EU countries, because by then it will be clear how Serbia has tackled the Kosovo question at the UN General Assembly in New York," he added.

The General Affairs 'Council has to decide unanimously whether to ask the European Commission to prepare its official opinion on Serbia's application, and this provides another conundrum. The Netherlands will hold parliamentary elections in June, and considering the protracted inter-party negotiations, it may be September before the new Dutch executive gets the mandate to decide on EU enlargement issues.

An additional setback for Belgrade's hopes is Belgium taking over the EU's rotating presidency for the second half of the year, which also means chairing the foreign ministers' discussions on enlargement. Belgium has been among the proponents of a stricter approach toward Serbia, whose membership application may be delayed on Belgian watch - certainly longer than Iceland's bid, but maybe also longer than the pending applications of Montenegro and Albania.

EU capitals seem to have little patience for Serbia's contradictory ambitions of not appearing weak on Kosovo while pressing for a fast-lane trip to EU membership. "Sometimes it is confusing to read reports in which Serbia plays hard against the most important EU countries on the Kosovo issue, and at the same time listen to Belgrade officials imploring us to help their country move faster towards the EU," an EU official commented.

http://waz.euobserver.com/887/29921