After UN court ruling, fears of global separatism

 

After UN court ruling, fears of global separatism

By DUSAN STOJANOVIC
The Associated Press
Friday, July 23, 2010; 12:55 PM

BELGRADE, Serbia -- Serbia and Kosovo are dispatching competing armies of lobbyists to governments that so far have wavered on recognizing the breakaway province.

Serbia, which considers Kosovo the cradle of its statehood and religion, fears Thursday's ruling by the top U.N. court backing the legality of the 2008 declaration of independence could lead to a wave of new recognitions.

Its best hope for preventing Kosovo admission to the United Nations may be vetoes by China and Russia which both have their own restive regions - a reflection of concerns in some countries that separatists will be emboldened by the development.

The U.S. and many in the West insist Kosovo's statehood is a special case because it is the result of a brutal Serbian ethnic cleansing campaign against Albanian separatists that led to an international administration in 1999, when NATO ejected Serb forces after a brief aerial war.

"We call on those states, who have not yet done so, to recognize Kosovo," U.S. State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley on said on Thursday. "Now is the time for them, for Kosovo and Serbia, to put aside their differences and move forward."

Some experts say there's no practical way to prevent other independence-minded regions from drawing inspiration from the Kosovo ruling.

"The West wants to say that this case has no precedential importance, but that's kind of a contortionist logic," said Dana Allin at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank. "You can say that, but whether you can enforce it is hard to say."

In its nonbinding decision announced Thursday, the top U.N. court said it did not rule on the legality of Kosovo's statehood, but only on its declaration of independence.

Regions around the world where separatists may be energized by Kosovo's secession include Spain's Basque country and Catalonia, Scotland, Italy's ethnic German-populated Alto Adige, and parts of Romania and Slovakia populated by restive Hungarian minorities.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which have declared independence from Georgia, will also be encouraged by the ruling that states that such unilateral declarations of independence are not illegal under international law. Nearby, Armenian separatists in Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabah region may seek to legitimize their secession dating back to the early 1990s.

In the Middle East, Kurdish politicians in Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region have also said they will carefully study the ICJ decision. Although the U.S. has insisted on keeping Iraq's territorial integrity since the 2003 invasion, the Kurds have repeatedly pointed out that they have been victims of Iraqi aggression under a variety of regimes since the 1930s.

The ruling could also have far-reaching effects on Indonesia, where at least two provinces, Aceh and West Papua, are seeking independence.

So far, only 69 countries of the 192 in the United Nations General Assembly, including the U.S. and most of EU states, have recognized Kosovo since it declared independence from Serbia in February 2008. But a number of important countries, aside from China and Russia, have refused to do so, including India, Brazil, Israel, Egypt, Indonesia, and South Africa.

For Kosovo to obtain U.N. membership, it needs a two-third majority in the General Assembly, plus the approval by all five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France.

"Already this weekend, special envoys will be dispatched to 55 countries throughout the world with my letter for the presidents of states or governments," Serbian President Boris Tadic said Friday.

"Many countries will be under pressure to recognize Kosovo before the U.N. General Assembly in September," he said. "Serbia will do its utmost so that there are the least possible such recognitions."

Kosovo Foreign Minister Skender Hyseni said he will send requests to 121 countries around the world asking for formal recognition of Kosovo's independence.

"The opinion of the court has created an entirely new context, and in line with this I have already started a new campaign today to animate the countries that have not recognized Kosovo yet," Hyseni told the Associated Press.

He said he will travel to the U.S. over the weekend for some 60 meetings with representatives of different nations in an attempt to get more recognitions ahead of the General Assembly.

But Serbia's Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic claimed Friday that many countries around the world "are worried about the possible misinterpretation" of the World Court ruling.

"It's a very dangerous precedent," Jeremic said. "Pandora's Box has been opened, and it must be closed before something flies out of it."

British Foreign Secretary William Hague, however, urged more countries to recognize Kosovo.

"Kosovo has been functioning as an independent State for two and a half years," he said in a statement. "I encourage other states that have not so far recognized Kosovo now to do so. Kosovo is a unique case and does not set a precedent."

The EU countries that have not recognized Kosovo are Spain, Greece, Slovakia, Cyprus and Romania - most grappling with separatism issues.

Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos said his country "respected" the U.N. court's ruling. But, he did not say whether Spain - which is faced with Catalan and Basque separatist movements - will now recognize Kosovo's independence.

Greece and Slovakia said the court's ruling won't make them change their minds.

Cyprus' foreign ministry said it remained firm in backing Serbia, reaffirming its "unwavering position to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Serbia, which includes Kosovo."

Romania has not yet officially reacted on the ruling, but the leader of its restive ethnic Hungarians, Laszlo Tokes, said they should now follow the Catalan model and hit the streets to demand more autonomy.

"Kosovo gained independence, couldn't we achieve autonomy?" he said.

Sergei Bagpash, the president of Georgia's separatist Abkhazia region, also applauded the Kosovo ruling.

"I think the decision itself will have a great influence on the efforts we are making," Bagpash told The Associated Press. "There can be no double standards."

Russia recognized the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states after the 2008 Russian-Georgian war and has kept troops there.

In Bosnia, which was divided after the bloody ethnic war in the 1990s into two entities - a Bosniak-Croat and a Serb one - the Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said the ruling "represents a good road sign for our future," referring to the region's longtime desire to split from Bosnia.

"It's inescapable that this ruling could have implications for other territories and other peoples, but how this will play out remains to be seen," said Tim Judah, a London-based Balkan analyst and author.

"It's too early to say because the court ruled on a very narrow question, which was simply whether Kosovo's declaration was legal or not," Judah said.

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Associated Press writers Jovana Gec in Belgrade, Nebi Qena in Pristina, Slobodan Lekic in Brussels, Sylvia Hui in London, Alison Mutler in Bucharest and Christopher Toothaker in Caracas contributed to this report.

© 2010 The Associated Press

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