Serbia May Put EU Accession on Ice

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·        By Goran Mijuk

The European Union's carrot-and-stick tactics may be losing their appeal to Serbia, which may put its aspirations of joining the EU on ice or even drop them altogether as the country is unwilling to part with Kosovo, its former southern province that unilaterally declared independence in 2008.

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A photo taken on Sept. 28 shows NATO-led peacekeepers standing near a Serbian flag as they guard a barricade at the Jarinje border crossing between Serbia and northern Kosovo.

The EU, which is expected to decide on Dec. 9 whether to proceed with accession talks with Serbia, said in October that before the integration process can be accelerated, strained relations with Kosovo need to be improved.

Conflict between the two neighbors gained momentum this summer when Kosovo police forces took over several border posts to enforce an import ban. Kosovo's Serbs, who dominate the region, reacted by putting up road blocks, which sparked clashes with the police and later with North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led troops.

Tension in the region remains high and several barricades and roadblocks still stand even as officials from Serbia and Kosovo have resumed talks in Brussels, after suspending them during the summer violence. Top policy makers still hope the talks can be brought to a successful end and pave the way for Serbia's EU integration.

Even if the EU accepts Serbia as a candidate for membership, the Kosovo issue will weigh on this Balkan nation's EU path for years to come.

So far, the EU has stopped short of coercing Serbia to acknowledge Kosovo's independence. But the bloc is likely to urge Belgrade sooner or later to take such a step because it doesn't want a simmering political conflict on top of its financial troubles. Serbia hopes to solve the Kosovo problem without having to accept its independence, but the EU may be less convinced that's feasible.

Since giving up Kosovo is unpalatable to a majority of Serbs, who consider Kosovo their cultural cradle, parts of Serbia's political establishment is considering dropping the EU bid. Nationalist rhetoric is once again heating up in the run-up to next year's elections, scheduled for May.

Serbia's influential interior minister Ivica Dacic said earlier this week that "if the price to gain membership in the EU is for Serbia to give up Kosovo, it should never be accepted because there are national and state interests and Serbia can survive without the EU."

Mr. Dacic doubled-up on Wednesday, telling Serbian news group B92 that Serbia mustn't pledge it won't ever got to war over Kosovo, arguing for a "balance of fear" and adding that Serbia "lost Kosovo and got it back several times in history."

While such belligerent talk may be part of election tactics, Mr. Dacic's view could win traction should Serbia fail to get candidate status for EU membership. If such populist views gain a majority among Serbia's voters, this would spell the end of the pro-European government under Boris Tadic at next year's election, creating more insecurity in the region.

http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2011/11/23/serbia-may-put-eu-integration-on-ice/