The Ukrainian Civil War has started

The Ukrainian Civil War has started.

The massacre in Odessa and other acts of violence in the east of Ukraine on the behest of the western backed junta in Kiev crossed the Rubicon. Now it is a proxy conflict with zero easy answers. By the end of this calendar year (maybe as easy as August) Ukraine may cease to be a sovereign state in any meaningful sense.

The illegitimate use of force by the illegitimate regime in Kiev (aka "Nuland's Plan") has no political solutions and is counting on its western allies to come to its aid. It is probably safe to say Washington is preparing some kind of lethal aid package as I write this. There are numerous and reliable reports western mercenaries and contractors are already on the ground.

To thwart Kiev's "militia assault" on the east and south I suspect Russia will (through proxies) supply what is ever necessary to protect civilian populations. Keep in mind events being played out in Ukraine is a domestic political issue for Russia. The Kremlin simply can't walk away. In the meantime, the east and south Ukraine have read the writing on the wall: the Kiev junta is more than willing to spill blood. I cannot see how the east and south will ever trust Kiev again.

Additional thoughts:

Ukraine's oligarchs are the only "winners" in all of this. Their economic and financial fiefdoms could very easily turn into unrecognized statelets.

Note that the "Washington Consensus" going epileptic over all this, while the rest of world remains large quiet about Ukraine.

The planned presidential election is a farce. It will be impossible to conduct a poll under current and worsening conditions.

The economy is in free fall. The inked IMF deal will be very difficult, if not impossible, to implement. Time is against the Kiev junta – and it is painfully aware of this.

More western sanction against Russia – there is only one sensitive sector and it's banking. (Depending on how banking sanctions are adopted, it impossible we could see Russian money in the west flee back to Russia – interesting boomerang!)

The global security order that come into place at the end of the Cold War is in tatters. Moscow is now the officially the enemy (again). However, in this environment Russia has options. This is an important moment of the "Global South.)

Peter Lavelle