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Europe, welcome to the new reality

7-9 minutes

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The assistance that NATO can provide to Ukraine is limited. What will this war on European soil bring to Europe?

Source: DW Friday, March 25, 2022 | 07:07

EPA-EFE OLIVIER HOSLET

The Alliance has to organize its future. And the ability to defend, says DW Brussels correspondent Bernd Riegert.

NATO must deal with a completely new security situation. Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg calls it a new reality, a new normality. Russia's attempt to subjugate Ukraine takes the world back 30 to 40 years, during the Cold War, when heavily armed military blocs stood in the middle of Europe facing each other.

When the aggressive war of the Russian ruler ends one day, NATO will have to put Russia and its allies, such as Belarus, behind the Iron Curtain. The new world order imposed on the West by Vladimir Putin will then be characterized by the isolation of hotbeds of danger.

The big question for NATO and the global West then will be: how to approach China? That communist dictatorship seems to be following a similar path as Putin's Russia. Therefore, that country, which could soon become the economically strongest power in the world, will also have to be limited and isolated. The United States and Europe must once again become more independent than China - with its decades long cheap production, where products are exported and from which existential raw materials are imported. Deglobalization or reversal will follow when it comes to international networking, which has been wanted and encouraged for the last 40 years.

A new strategy is needed

NATO must take all this into account in its new strategy, which should be developed by the next summit in June in Madrid. And all that will work only if there is a president in the White House who will turn to Europe and the transatlantic alliance like Joe Biden after 2025. One cannot even imagine what would happen if Donald Trump made decisions in the United States. Russia's aggression shows Europe that it cannot do without the United States.

Sanctions against Russia and Belarus will remain in force even after the end of the war, which we hope will come soon. The goal must remain to disable the activities of the Russian economy and society, at least as long as Putin's system exists. That is why NATO now faces gigantic tasks. It is not enough to transfer several thousand soldiers and establish four new combat battalions to four countries on the eastern borders of the Alliance's territory.

NATO today would not be able to quickly repel a strong Russian attack on land or at sea. Doubts also arise as to whether nuclear intimidation, a key element in the balance of power during the Cold War, still works today. If there is someone in the Kremlin who may not care if the one who uses atomic weapons dies first, then nuclear intimidation does not work.

Grab your weapons

NATO, the EU and the West face a huge task of arming and strengthening armed forces. The first countries, such as Germany, recognized that and announced an increase in their defense budgets. One must now be honest and say that the money must go to rebuild the territorial army, with infantry, tanks, artillery and a strong air force. It will be an immeasurable financial and social task that will be reflected in people's everyday lives.

With a professional army, moderately motivated as it is today, it will be quite difficult to achieve. Germany and other countries could be forced to reintroduce conscription in order to create the necessary army and reserve for effective intimidation. It sounds like a call from a gloomy past that was thought to have been overcome. Unfortunately, this is a new reality. It is clear to NATO who is to blame: it is Putin's war. The only possible conclusion follows: Putin must be removed.